Hello Traders. Since TradingView does not offer the values of key interest data in terms of specific values for Google Trends (the amount of people interested in Bitcoin?), I have decided to create the graph myself via the data pulled from Google's keyword trends for the search term, "Bitcoin". A small disclaimer: this graph is not drawn to perfect scale. It is to show the extremities of the different values shown within the timeline to show the past and current data of interest within the Google trends - which can be an alternative view of how the general public is really interested or not. Furthermore, this is a continuation of my risk management series, so I hope you take this post light heartedly and try to understand this post from a pure observational perspective and use this research to your trading advantage.
In the above diagram, we are seeing a timeline of the actual interest via the search interest for the keyword, "Bitcoin" in a timespan period of five years. The point of this graph is to show an alternative view of how much interest the general public may have.
As we can see, we are seeing a possible case of almost no interest within the cryptocurrency space due to possible low interests. The data suggested is showing a possible evidence that either:
1. We may set to blast through new ATHs (all time highs) due to this being a possible lagging indicator, or, 2. We may never see the same amount of interest in the near future and have a possible crash in the near future.
Case number two is a high possible case for me, as well, personally; however, number one is also a highly valid and sound case.
In the case of number two, we can truly dissect the real meaning of how much public interest we had back when Bitcoin hit new highs. Everyone was in Bitcoin! But looking at the current data, we must ask ourselves, "who is really invested into Bitcoin?" - Is the public interest still there? Is everyone on the sidelines?
That question is only answered possibly by time. We cannot predict the future, but we can learn from our past mistakes since this post is to give an alternative view to possibly help any future traders to not make the same mistake we did in 2018.
In terms of risk management, we can see that Bitcoin is currently creeping its way to our previous 2017-2018 high; however, many are now begging the question, "Is this the time to sell?" - or, "Is it time to buy?"
I hope this chart shines light onto all investors and traders. The data is embedded, but how we can interpret is very tricky. If you are interested in more of my risk management posts, please check the posts below!
a better question: what proportion of retail traders will be able to re-enter the bitcoin market *without* googling Bitcoin because they ALREADY have coinbase (or another fiat on-ramp)?
remember, the people googling are boomers and millennials. anyone from last cycle can enter/exit without this metric moving at all.
XForceGlobal
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@chickenboye exactly! Good point. That’s the scary part of the story - a major selloff chain reaction. I do believe that many can exit or enter without moving the metric, but that would entail an already price matured asset. It would be hypothetical to the theory that we need a driver from new dumb money to drive prices to ath. If one thinks that no new interest is needed, there is no way for price to go to raging highs.
pleasedOrange
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@chickenboye, they will not enter.they know the pain if the sell off in 2017/2018
Who said funds will not hold the bag here? They seem to be wrong. No new Robinhood buyers price must crater... Much harder to ban PHYSICAL GOLD than BTC. BTC can be eaily blocked forbidding exchange to fiat via banks in ONE DECREEE. GOLD would require you spy on every person in person. 21million of BTC plus...21million of BTCGOld+21mil of BTCCash+ 1000s of way better coins (more secure, faster). BTC to CRYPTO is like MySpace to FB in 2008 and Lycos to Google in 2000. total tulip bubble. It is useless for anything but hoarding and selling to another person at a bubble price. SCARCITY of BTC is a LIE. BTC is as scarce as one human is vs another. It si EASILY REPLEACEABLE by 1000s of BETTER FASTER coins. BTC was initially payment system...it FAILED as it does only 3transactions/s !!!! stuoid centralized VISA does 30000/s. So they are PUMPING it as store of value...
GOLD has only 100 periodic elements in Mendeleyev TABLE nature set...most of them like URANIUM you cannot even easily own. Bitcoin has THOUSANDS of competing better crypto coins. You can own or mine ANY of them. And they have market caps in billions. You can hold ANY of the tulips. The thesis there are only 21illion of coins is ridiculous... there are trillions of new crypto coins better and some even directly derived from BTC - BTCCAsh, BTCGOLD.... BTC itself is useless. It is hoarded and bought to sell to ANOTHER sucker - this is how PONZIs work
XForceGlobal
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@pleasedOrange, Well, not to be one sided is an important factor - we should open to both sides. @chickenboye has a good point, and you do too! I think another counter argument to scenario two would be that there has been a record number of signups for exchanges. This can imply one thing - people ARE interested. People are possibly interested in buying Bitcoin, but maybe on the sidelines thinking, "How can I buy Bitcoin?". It's all perspective.
Conor-Pritchard
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Totally agree! I think that it's the institutional investments driving this bullish move the past few weeks, which is possibly why we don't see the same interest via the public on google trends. I wouldn't be surprised that when BTC makes a new ATH, the media picks it up, people go crazy and pump the price further, and then we see a massive crash like 2017/18. ... Or the price gets rekt in the next week as it's touched the previous ATH.
PS. Love the content!
XForceGlobal
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@Conor-Pritchard exactamundo. This is a good little testimony to the actual real interest of bitcoin. We might be temporarily seeing a rise in price due to institutional inflationary driven reasons.
pleasedOrange
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@Conor-Pritchard, I sold Sally btc into this nonsense...I got in at 11 before previous ath. U think I will buy now again ?
dotcom880
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Fear and greed index at 88 out of 100. I'm keeping my hands of this one.
Not denying that it might reach ATH, but likely first a drop in my opinion.
XForceGlobal
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@dotcom880, Yes, will be doing another post on the crypto and fear index!
remember, the people googling are boomers and millennials. anyone from last cycle can enter/exit without this metric moving at all.