1. Accumulation: A sideways range in which institutional smart players buy carefully and skillfully, without moving the price. The small players are unaware of what is going on; the market is out of the public focus while under accumulation. From a technical perspective, prices move sideways in a trading range bounded by rough areas of
2. Markup: The classic uptrend. At this point, the small scale traders become aware of the price movement, and their buying fuels price action higher. Smart money players who bought in the accumulation phase may sell some of their holdings into the strength of the uptrend, or they may just hold and wait for higher prices. As the trend grinds higher, the early, aggressive shorts will be forced to cover, and their buying pressure will, in turn, push the market higher.
3. Distribution: Eventually, the uptrend ends and the market enter into a distribution phase in which the smart money players sell the remainder of their holdings to the small retail traders who are still generally anticipating higher prices. Really smart money players might even sell more than they own and go short in this range. From a technical perspective, there are, two ways this can happen. The manic blow-off end-of-trend pattern will be the result. More common is that the uptrend runs out of steam, and the market goes into another sideways trading range
4. Markdown: The downtrend that follows distribution. Smart money players who are short will buy back some of their shorts into this weakness. Eventually, the retail trader realizes that higher prices are not in their future, so they panic and sell their positions. This panic, more often than not, marks the end of the downtrend. Real downtrends begin out of this environment of optimism or complacency. Longs begin to unwind their positions, adding to the selling pressure.
Greed is very strong now ("free" btcc works).
But it's a fear of going higher. Spring noobs now much watchful. $3000 has a very powerful psychological resistance without support. Dangerous line. Only full enthusiasts believe in $5000 today. Need a time.
I'm sure, we will see blow off phase. Maybe not today, but very soon.