Good morning, traders. We had another night of lackluster movement but, more importantly, price was unable to remain above its resistance-turned-support level. Since that point, it has dropped to the next support level where it has just bounced, as we mentioned traders should be watching last night. Due to its inability to remain above the $6230 area, it seems more likely that we will see price target the congruence area (as noted by the two sets of fib pulls on the right side of price) around $5980.
The 4 hour chart on the left shows us that the current support area is the Bollinger Bands' moving average. We can also see that the lower BB is at the base of the ascending channel. If we cannot get a strong bounce off the $5980 area, that pushes us back above $6130, then the expectation should be that price will test the lower BB/bottom of the ascending channel. We need to keep in mine that price is currently in the middle of the descending channel which started at the high near $10,000, so a push through the top of that channel should suggest further bullish momentum. Unfortunately, it appears that interest is absent at this time. That doesn't mean we won't see it, just that traders should be most cautious when price is boring as it currently is because that's when the big moves, up or down, happen and can catch you off guard.
The 1 hour chart just gives us a closer look at current price action and we can see that price is moving within a small descending green channel, downward through the 1h cloud. We can also note that price is creating a potential reversal candle on the lower BB/0.618 fib level. Follow through of this would suggest a move up toward the BB moving average/upper blue resistance line. The small ascending orange channel provides the area where price movement has congregated. If we happen to see price push through the top of the green channel, we should be watching for an attempt at the top of the orange channel. A successful breach of this channel provides the top of the ascending yellow channel as a target. I mention this precisely because of the overall area that price has found itself in over the past few days and the resultant possibility of large sudden price swings up or down.
Don't forget to watch BTCUSD Shorts and the BTCUSD Shorts v. Longs charts. As I mentioned last night, shorts are finding resistance on further upward movement at the bottom of the cloud on the 4 hour and daily charts. Failure of shorts to push through these levels soon should see them falling further.
As always, the multiple indicators are for y'all. I provide them because some of you use one or the other and therefore you are more easily able to understand what's going on when they're included. I hope this helps.
Be aware, that while I believe we may be in accumulation at this time, I have also mentioned multiple times that it is possible we could merely be in redistribution. How price responds where it is currently at this week, I believe, will tell us much more about where we may be in the cycle. I will be working on some alternative narratives which I will be providing this week as well.
Until now, the closing price of the CME expiration date was lower than that of CBOE in the bear market, and the closing price of the CME expiration date was higher than that of CBOE in the bull market. Assuming this pattern is maintained, June is the continuation of the downside, CBOE lowered the low point on the 14th, and CME on the 30th is expected to lower the bottom. As CME futures expiration date (1 am on June 30) is approaching, we should open up possibility that price will be pushed once more.
LeRrrrroi
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@pkb6698, would long for July and August make sense. 8/9K July. 10/11K August.
pkb6698
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@scheltensroy, I hope, too
Chris_Inks
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@pkb6698, Thanks for sharing. I have been looking at that as well.
pkb6698
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@TexasWestCapital, Thanks, I like your analysis.
Chris_Inks
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@pkb6698, I hope you don't mind, but I pulled up your chart here during our live stream last night when speaking about the upcoming futures expiration. Just wanted to give you a heads up that I did so.
pkb6698
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@TexasWestCapital, I want to show my ideas and know other people's ideas. I want many people's ideas to be shared. Thanks for sharing my ideas with people. It is very enjoyable for me. I am now a subscriber to your video.^_^
< Comparison Between CBOE:blue and CME:red > * UTC+9
18.01.18. 07:00 / CBOE: 11100$ / SHORT
18.01.27. 01:00 / CME: 11000$ / SHORT
18.02.15. 07:00 / CBOE: 9300$ / LONG
18.02.24. 01:00 / CME: 10200$ / LONG
18.03.15. 07:00 / CBOE: 8100$ / SHORT
18.03.31. 01:00 / CME: 6700$ / SHORT
18.04.19. 07:00 / CBOE: 8200$ / LONG
18.04.28. 01:00 / CME: 9300$ / LONG
18.05.17. 07:00 / CBOE: 8300$ / SHORT
18.05.26. 01:00 / CME: 7500$ / SHORT
18.06.14. 07:00 / CBOE: 6300$ / SHORT
18.06.30. 01:00 / CME: ???) / ???
Until now, the closing price of the CME expiration date was lower than that of CBOE in the bear market, and the closing price of the CME expiration date was higher than that of CBOE in the bull market. Assuming this pattern is maintained, June is the continuation of the downside, CBOE lowered the low point on the 14th, and CME on the 30th is expected to lower the bottom. As CME futures expiration date (1 am on June 30) is approaching, we should open up possibility that price will be pushed once more.