I didn't post anything this weekend because I was in a safe long position with a trailing stops so I focused on celebrating my birthday and the nice east coast weather stress free. Its important to separate yourself from this game once in a while. The 24/7 nature of the crypto market can take a toll if you're not careful.
Everyone is feeling lucky right now but we are running out of gas in the short term. We a definitely free of the bear market trend line that has contained BTC since the ATH. That being said we need a re-test and a hold of that line to confirm it as support. Even then, we could work our way downwards on the outside of it as well if the bull conviction ends and people start taking their profits more quickly. We are narrowing our range in a rising wedge pattern between a sharp uptrend channel (dotted orange) and the more stable uptrend channel (solid thick orange) with volume trending downwards. We would expect either a small break up out of our current consolidation but hit serious resistance around the double top (yellow shaded area) near $9200. However, a convincing break out of this and re-test confirmation of the $9200 level would be a very bullish sign but this seems like the less likely option at the moment. More likely, we will break this wedge support downwards eventually, even after a small bump out of the current flag, don't panic FOMO buy near a resistance.
Ideally, we would find support in the thick orange channel, re-test the channel bottom, and re-test the bear market downtrend line. If all this holds, then we could be forming a nice right shoulder (pale green) for a clean looking inverse H&S pattern. We still have support from the 5, 10, and 20 day SMA to help hold these levels.
Indicators show short term reversal/correction (days), mid-term bullish (1+ week):
+ MACD histogram bearish divergence on 4hr and 1D (short term reversal possible)
+ MACD trending bullish on 1D still but bearish cross on 4hr (short term reversal possible)
+ Bullish RSI divergence on daily (indicates longer term bull run may hold)
+ Slight bearish RSI divergence on 4hr (shows we might be running out of steam on the current push, need deeper consolidation)
+ Bearish RVGI cross on 1D, trending down on 4hr (short term top, likely short term reversal)
Summary: indicators and rising wedge pattern with decreasing volume points at a short term correction, however there is still a possible trade in taking a partial position on a bull break, taking partial profits early and setting a break even stop loss at the bottom of the flag.
Peace & Love,
crypt0guy
Everyone is feeling lucky right now but we are running out of gas in the short term. We a definitely free of the bear market trend line that has contained BTC since the ATH. That being said we need a re-test and a hold of that line to confirm it as support. Even then, we could work our way downwards on the outside of it as well if the bull conviction ends and people start taking their profits more quickly. We are narrowing our range in a rising wedge pattern between a sharp uptrend channel (dotted orange) and the more stable uptrend channel (solid thick orange) with volume trending downwards. We would expect either a small break up out of our current consolidation but hit serious resistance around the double top (yellow shaded area) near $9200. However, a convincing break out of this and re-test confirmation of the $9200 level would be a very bullish sign but this seems like the less likely option at the moment. More likely, we will break this wedge support downwards eventually, even after a small bump out of the current flag, don't panic FOMO buy near a resistance.
Ideally, we would find support in the thick orange channel, re-test the channel bottom, and re-test the bear market downtrend line. If all this holds, then we could be forming a nice right shoulder (pale green) for a clean looking inverse H&S pattern. We still have support from the 5, 10, and 20 day SMA to help hold these levels.
Indicators show short term reversal/correction (days), mid-term bullish (1+ week):
+ MACD histogram bearish divergence on 4hr and 1D (short term reversal possible)
+ MACD trending bullish on 1D still but bearish cross on 4hr (short term reversal possible)
+ Bullish RSI divergence on daily (indicates longer term bull run may hold)
+ Slight bearish RSI divergence on 4hr (shows we might be running out of steam on the current push, need deeper consolidation)
+ Bearish RVGI cross on 1D, trending down on 4hr (short term top, likely short term reversal)
Summary: indicators and rising wedge pattern with decreasing volume points at a short term correction, however there is still a possible trade in taking a partial position on a bull break, taking partial profits early and setting a break even stop loss at the bottom of the flag.
Peace & Love,
crypt0guy