From Isle of Man Summit through December

BTCE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
335 6 7
Why did the price get extra bearish last week?

Forget Apple             Pay, forget generalized sensationalized headlines of bitcoin             regulation horrors.

On September 16th, one day before the beginning of the Isle of Man bitcoin             summit, banking facilities close accounts of any Bitcoin-related functions on Isle of Man.

Some people apparently knew on the 15th that was going to happen. By the 18th, OBV is clobbered to death, but CMF             is already beginning to climb, nicely rounding the market back up into a retaliatory rally until... FIRST HEDGE FUND INVESTMENTS EVER!

GABI was ANNOUNCED on September 23rd, conveniently as the price begins to sway down in like force again. According to my opinion, with CMF             backing me, THEIR INVESTING BEGAN on the 18th, however. You'll notice they defended the price right at the 70% retracement (blue line) of the $1100 December high. Whether they are in this for long-term health of the industry and long-term profit, or whether they're here to serve their interests, even at the expense of Bitcoin             reaching it's full potential for all peoples (I'm assuming closer to the former, could be wishful) they are going to contribute to those defending the price at $380 (BTCe price. Sorry, I know it's a bit different than Stamp, maybe throwing things off a bit). And strong contributors they will be, expect $380 to hold (or $370, they might try to scare ya. They like to do that.)

Also drawing up the price for the end of the year is the fact that rich people are still going to use this as a tax haven this year (and the next year, and the year after that, regardless of opposing legislation.)

Yahoo             says a bullish breakout is coming... we should sell, right? WRONG! Look at the average true range of the two previous rallies that basically bounced off the 70% mark as well. $65 price swings, $70 price swings? On an investment that is only $375/unit?! That's not sustainable! However, $40, a bit more than 10%, is perfectly acceptable quick growth off a 70% bearish retracement in a less and less volatile market.

BTW             that bullish trend frame is roughly similar to one that is being posted by a few people now, reaching back to just before the explosive bubble last year.
good analysis but i dont agree on one point, there is no demand and no "new" money flowing in from new adopters or consumers. in that case i still expect 200-340 range within 4 weeks from now.
MoonTrader BitcoinGuru
That is still possible, but I think we will have to see a larger correction before the price can resume its downward movement. Weekly Stoch is bottomed out and needs a correction. If and when that happens, I think 270-290 will be the bottom and we will begin the new uptrend there.
+1 Reply
AndrewGrennan BitcoinGuru
EliX. I'd be willing to bet there's not just "new" money flowing in, but there's a good amount of "new" money JUST IN that one hedge fund. Smart, wealthy investors can be the most difficult people to convince to purchase bitcoin. I'm talking about the ones who like less risky blue chip stocks because they have the bankroll to profit from them, so why switch to something like bitcoin? However, with the adoption of a Political Action Committee, the creation of a THINK TANK!, and many other behind-the-scenes events that could be more important than even the PayPal cooperation, because they fight for the longevity and full realization of bitcoin potential in the battlefields that have most sway, politics and banking; I think we can expect the already-convinced among their calibur to make their cases more and more.
Great analysis. Thanks!
Thanks MoonTrader. I was hoping it would go down much further before the end of the year bull rally I always expected. I wanted those cheap coins. But right now, I don't see serious bears returning till the beginning of next year. Besides, if the experts don't sweeten it up for the rest of us this year, especially after the recent stupid media hype (and letting it down HARD every time previously,) how are they supposed to make more suckers next year?
MoonTrader AndrewGrennan
Exactly. Here's a related idea I had just recently. I think we may be seeing a breakout in a few weeks, or about a year since the last bubble.

+1 Reply
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out