BTCUSD Bullish and Bearish set up

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
234 0
Green rectangle is support

Red rectangle and red line is resistance

Long trade scenario:

Long orders in the green rectangle area with T1 at bottom of red rectangle and T2 at red line. SL on the chart

Short trade scenario:

Short orders in the red rectangle area with T1 at top of green rectangle and T2 at bottom of green rectangle . May place more short orders nearer red line depending on price action. SL on the chart
Trade active: Long order filled at 6454. Posted screenshot of position on my twitter (link below). Have one more order at 6323
Comment: Damn!! Missed my 2nd Long order at 6323 (which I posted in my previous update) by only 8 points. The lowest price on 3rd October 2018 on Bitmex for XBTZ18 was 6331. Keeping this order open just incase we wick down there once more. Currently, I have 2 open Long orders set (check the twitter link below)
Comment: Price needs to come out of the green rectangle (see chart below) with an impulse move (no wick) and stay above it with some H4 candle closes. If this happens then I’ll move up my SL for a better evolving R.

Next immediate resistance levels are the 2 red lines (shown on chart below) but they have already been weakened with each previous hit. So, an impulsive move should take out these levels.

Comment: Further to my previous update, price has been staying above the top line of green rectangle with 3 consecutive H4 candle closes (see chart below) which indicates that this level (around 6628) is likely to hold as support. Any impulsive move (not wick) through this level down below with some H4 candle closes below this level will be enough for me to flip my bias from bullish to bearish.

That being said, I am seeing hidden bearish divergence on D1 (price making lower high and RSI making Higher high- see chart). Hence, I am now moving my SL to entry/breakeven. Protecting capital is far more important to me than making profit.

Comment: My bias is now neutral to bearish.

Neutral because price is still within the support rectangle and price is decreasing with decreasing volume on H4 timeframe (which is normally bullish).

Bearish because the red line is still acting as resistance and the top line of green rectangle has not acted as support (as stated in previous update). In fact there has been 2 H4 candle closes below it suggesting the bulls are losing momentum.

If you are already not in a position, my suggestion is to stay away and watch price action.
Trade closed: stop reached: Hope my analysis helped you so far and as expected (see updates above) BTC fell off the cliff. My SL was hit and position closed at Breakeven.

My bias is still neutral to bearish. I think price will go sideways for some time now after such a crazy move.

Price is still within the green rectangle but I do not think this support will hold. Next support is between 5400 to 5800 (the 2nd green rectangle below the current one) which I think will hold.

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