Neutral to Long - STOP HUNT overlay in Orange

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar

To add a little positive thought into the gloomy picture being created by the Mr Whaley the Market Maker I've overlayed a typical manipulation of a Stop Hunt (Novice Alert). In FOREX these occur by the minute, by the day but also by the month and year to Stop Out all the different traders - The house always wins. Now there are a number of large players in the market ($10m+) there is a high chance that they are applying what they know at a market level (as there is little to no pressure from the hype to impact their strategy) and so for illustration purposes I've overlayed a typical pattern to see how it matches up...

Scarily accurate isn't it..

Look, I've lifted this trend overlay from Market Trader's Daily who specialise in this stuff - this is not my guesstimate on what might happen, merely and idea of what has happened in other markets. Most experienced traders will know about this stuff and a few traders are talking about this but for any (remaining ;) newbies like me it is worth going to do some research on it.

The last time I looked at this pattern the market shifted and dropped deeper but did come back up so I'm cautious on this and consider giant stops hunts as just another indicator on planning for the bottom - Hence my Neutral position. However, once all the shorts are done I hope to see the breaking of the down trend.

Note that on my chart I've accidentally estimated the green area slightly too deep and time frames are probably too long but these are merely estimates. In this scenario, Mr Whaley will break through the line, eat his fill and go hit the shorts, then come back for a few more stops before heading up.

Novice trying to catch a whale, Expecting short term upswing - Neutral to Bearish longer term until August mark.
Mar 29
Comment: It's probably worth noting that I'm a massive cynic and believe that this is all just a big manipulation thus potentially swayed by my views. However, the Market Maker will not want to kill the market and after sitting on FIAT I'll be Dollar Cost Averaging in from here down to $7,200 with some of my investment - watching my stops ;)
Mar 29
Comment: On this timeline, traders are supposed to beginning to panic... I would stupidly holding on a little longer expecting more of a drop where the market maker begins to force them to think about selling.
Mar 29
Comment: Note that this scenario typically happens when there is a clear target area on the downside. As there are very few historical consolidation areas at this range traders huddle around a 'target' / swing price. The market will target belief systems like tested levels ($7,600) knowing there are stops under it. It is suggested that this move has been setup from all the way back in November 2017... This manipulation will probably occur when we move to $6,000 in a month or so.
Apr 16
Comment: I'm unsure why I had the downward trendline (in grey) in his position - I believe we are still in the Bearish channel.

We are at a pivotal point where this SH trendline will either break down or go up:

- Drop to $7,824 (Binance) and then break the remaining resistance to drop further
- Drop to $7,824 and then rebound to new highs (no immediately)
Apr 16
Comment: if it breaks down we are deviating from the trend.
Binance USDT is generally a few points lower than FIAT (I know, I should not be anywhere near Tether ;) - I'd actually suggest that the resistance is even lower - $7,720 - juggling Bitfinex data (via Tradingview), GDAX data, Binance data - you can't trade properly with that setup! :S
Apr 19
Comment: Caution - Expecting a drop unless buy pressure can overcome - they can't sell all their BTC in one go at the ATH as it would break the market - they need to feed it to you in small mouthfuls.

- Logic would say go after the HODL gang next - get them to sell then we go up.
One thing to note to suggest this scenario might be wrong at this time. As the stop hunt occurs it stands to reason that volume will drop dramatically - which suggests that the sellers have been created - this has not happened as yet
hardforky lord_feo
@lord_feo, I now look at this line slightly differently. I'ts potentially bate for buyers and where the market maker can see a lot of liquidity - resistance has been touched a number of times on a large timeframe which it potentially makes it invalid the 3rd or fourth time?
I think it will hold for now - but would not be surprised if it breaks in this bear market.
lord_feo hardforky
@hardforky, right, we may experience up and down around bottom resistance line. not a good time to buy or sell, wait and watch.
hardforky lord_feo
@lord_feo, thanks. paper money. Not experienced enough to play for real :)
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