In my previous analysis, Bitcoin headed to the extreme low-range of the possibilities I presented for an end to this consolidation phase. Price even dropped EXACTLY to the pink trendline on my chart. Press play and see. are pretty incredible.
Bitcoin , along with the major crypto indexes TOTAL and TOTAL 2 have held onto their monthly 9 EMA's. It came VERY close for Bitcoin . From a technical perspective, the bull market survives to live another day. To me, a signal would have been a close below. That would have told me to sell some crypto on any larger bounce, but now we're setting up for potential continuation.
TOTAL and TOTAL2 still look very strong, in my opinion.
There could be one more test of the 9 , but I think a slow recovery from here is just as likely, as outlined in the chart for this analysis. Again, if we see closes below the 9 month , I will become more concerned.
The Current Situation:
Firstly, Bitcoin will need to break the current downtrend (light blue), which it currently seems to be attempting. Then, price will need to move up quite a bit over the next week or two. A strong recovery will bring back buyers, and many who exited at a loss would likely return to the market. If the environment remains enough, this can invite new market participants who may have been waiting for signs of a recovery. People are taking crypto a lot more seriously now, believe me. And by seriously, I don't mean merely in terms of financial gain. People are seeing its philosophical, social, and economic implications. Even some people in my field (social work) are starting to take notice.
I had a shower thought this morning - cryptocurrency communities are almost like small nations without borders. Or like small religions. What's great about this space is that there's a coin with a model that fits many different social/economic values. And we get to choose. We don't choose where we're born, or the family we're born into. Crypto reflects the importance of intentional community. Even tribalism (often seen as a negative element of this space - it absolutely can be annoying) is evidence that all anyone really cares about is community and shared values. Sure, everyone wants to make money and build wealth for themselves. But crypto provides a space where it's at least a little easier to do it together, rather than against each other. The only problem is, those with the true power in this world are now in the space, there's no denying that. The true test here is to see if crypto can continue to grow and create wealth/security for newer generations, or whether it crumbles under existing inequities and weaknesses in our current economic system. The only case for crypto I have is that the current economic system is unsustainable, and this will have a ripple effect that will cause everything to collapse. We could see a major war, environmental catastrophe, who knows?
But at least crypto provides a new, unique opportunity to put our faith in community during the digital age. During a time where everything feels like an echo chamber, it's helpful to believe in something, and to find others who believe in that thing. Though sometimes it feels like it's hard to know what's real and what's not. The great thing about life is that it really doesn't matter.
This is not financial advice. This is meant for speculation, entertainment, and education only.
However, if Bitcoin also breaks my trendline on Bistamp, we could see a more abrupt selloff towards sub-$20k prices. PermaBears really want this scenario because it would be a long term technical blow to Bitcoin's systematic price appreciation.
Everyone’s situation is different. I understand for people only entering the market now or recently, it can be stressful. Just good to have a plan and manage your risk appropriately.