Found this very bad investment

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
2 in 1 here: my prediction for the future direction, I would trade like this if the right conditions are met, and also I want to do what no man has done before: look at the facts and figure out if this "investment" is good or not. Spoiler: it is VERY poor.

2018. Bitcoin .

Number of people that know about Bitcoin: The exact or even approximate number is unknown, but it is several billion (75% of Americans now for example, europe is somewhere in the same boat probably more from what I have seen).
Number of people that have invested in Bitcoin and are waiting for it to go up to sell and buy "a lambo": We are up to about 10% of americans (30 million). There are tons in Korea, China, Europe too. A UK poll showed that 5% of millenials have money into Bitcoin . According to bitinfocharts 2 million adresses have more than $1000 in to this day. Coinbase has 13 million users.
Who owns most Bitcoin: A few whales that got in below $1000 (down 85% from current price) hold around half of the supply. 1000 addresses possess 40% BTC . Out of 5 million that have more than 0.001 Bitcoin this represents 0.02%. Their intentions, of course, are not known.
Who uses Bitcoin?: 2.9 to 5.8 million active bitcoin users according to a Cambridge University study. It is not specified how many of those are speculators and how many actually buy stuff. 200.000- 250.000 daily transactions.
What is the mainstream media ( aka idiots) opinion of Bitcoin?: Oh this is the greatest revolution humankind has ever known. Blockchain (they have no clue what it actually is or how it works) is an amazing tech. Renowned economists, researchers, phd's do not share this opinion.
Interest in Bitcoin: On tradingview, to this day, Bitcoin ideas alone get several times (at least 3) the number of views for all currencies, looking at most popular page 1 for each. On social networks I always lose the link to sites to check that, but I know there is a lot of interest for crypto's. Worse example is poor /biz that got overrun by cryptoers, no one is talking about business or stocks, it's only crypto all day long every day. So to sum up: EXTREMELY HIGH.
How does the chart look like: VERY BAD. Do I need to explain? XD It looks worse than the tulip bubble chart.
How good is the tech as of now?: Expensive, very buggy (there are more bugs than words in the code I think lol), does not scale (yet?). Just plain AWFUL for now.
Prospects of evolution?: I really do not want to go list all the problems it creates and non-issues it solves. So I will ignore this. We will consider every thing will work amazingly in the end.
Dividends/payday and revenue?: None. Actually, miners are draining the market all the time except when the price gets too low for them (6000$ for example), then they just accumulate virtual coins and sell them once the price is high enough. Also, as time goes by difficulty increases and the miners cost goes up. So this is a negative sum game. If we consider people stop creating new coins, there will still be alot of selling from people verifying transactions. NO DIVIDENDS. PERMANENT NEGATIVE REVENUE.

Conclusions: B.A.D. Market is so saturated. There is 1 gigazillion more speculators than users. Network is getting slow expenseve, BAD, and code is full of bugs.
High risk, very easy to buy and saturated with speculators, no upside potential.

2013. Bitcoin .

Number of people that know about Bitcoin: 25% of Americans. Very few in europe.
Number of people that have invested in Bitcoin and are waiting for it to go up to sell and buy "a lambo": An absolute maximum of 1.25 million people have more than 0.001 btc . A few thousand addresses at most have more than $1000 in. Coinbase has 115,000 users.
Who owns most Bitcoin: The top 1% adresses hold 35% Bitcoin .
Who uses Bitcoin?: Mostly criminals (people buying drugs online count). Typically somewhere between 50,000 and 70,000 bitcoin transactions each day.
What is the mainstream media ( aka idiots) opinion of Bitcoin?: Every article is calling it a speculative bubble (most of these people changed their minds, alot have wrote articles titled "I was wrong about Bitcoin" you can find those online very easilly just google "I was wrong about Bitcoin" xd). Some journalists have tried using Bitcoin to write about it. There are scores of articles claiming Bitcoin is dead.
Interest in Bitcoin: Clearly mild/low. Nobody cares. No one talks about it. Forex ideas on trading view for example are far more popular than crypto ideas. Social media... Bitcoin is boring as hell and for nerds.
How does the chart look like: Looking like a little bubble. Support area (trendline + weekly MA's - too young for monthly - reached with very low daily RSI ).
We are down 80% whereas last time price went down 80% bounce then ended up down 95%, the move UP was more strong thought and no one was using BTC yet.
How good is the tech as of now?: It can be used for micro transactions, it is cheap and fast and very convenient, but if it grows it will slow down at some point.
Prospects of evolution?: No reason for it not to be used. On a global scale, never, but there is still alot of room for more users.
Dividends/payday and revenue?: None. Miners sell their rewards so it is a negative sum game. Still not that expensive compared to Visa etc (with today's difficulty).

Conclusions: This is not investing but gambling. People are actually using it and there is plenty of room for growth and there is a possibility this goes into yet another bubble and better a giant bubble when the internet herd aka the herd period joins.. There are a few speculators, but also quite some users. Gambling a small amount for fun why not if you do not mind investing in crime?
High risk, not that much people in only "weirdos", high upside potential.
Comment: Some small time criminal tried to steal the Bitcoin of a true HODLer in Norway.
The fool. No one can grab your Bitcoin, this is its biggest strength.
The HODLer Bitcoin is safe the robber was not able to get it.

The HODLer himself got stabbed 20 times and he is dead.
No one will ever touch his precious Bitcoins.

Had to....

Here is one big difference between BTC and FIAT:

When you pay (small) fees for FIAT transactions, banks do not instantly sell that FIAT for Gold or another currency.
When you pay (humongous) fees for BTC transactions, miners instantly sell these for cold hard cash.

The only way the whole thing does not collapse is with new investors to balance out the millions that bleed out of the market every day. Shills need to bait new investors not for the price to go up, no they simply need new investors all the time so the price DOES NOT GO DOWN.

And there are not enough investors to keep the price up right now, there has been alot of people "buying cheap" for months, but they have not been able to prevent Bitcoin from crashing to 0. The only reason Bitcoin did not crash to ZERO is alot miners were not profitable below 6-7000 dollars and stopped selling their rewards. Even the "die hard" "crypto enthusiasts" like Bitmain SELL their Bitcoins, it is all public. They are telling IDIOTS to invest while they SELL their rewards on a large scale, all PUBLICLY. Because idiots gullible enough to invest in crypto are not going to go check for themselves what is really going on.

Each time new wave of buyers arrived, BTC skyrocketed from the 6000 support, then miners sold the BTC they were accumulating, and we jumped down. "Investors" did not sell, this is not why we went down. Miners did.
Look at the chart, see the areas where miners are not profitable, the more time we spend in this area where miners are accumulating, the faster the drops were.

The dumbest people are truly the miners that believe in a Bitcoin bull market. These apes are selling and preventing the price from going up and they actually ... whatever I am done here, this is too stupid for me, peace out.
Comment: I calculated the cost of mining Bitcoins since its creation but idk where I put that.
Of course this info is impossible to find :)
If it sounded good you can be sure it would be everywhere all over the internet just like "how much would you have if invested in Bitocin in 2012?"

I think it's something like this:

I doubt we will see a great revolution that brings the cost down.

But anyway, for now what matters is what cost did miners have for Bitcoin?
And for those that slowed down their mining, at what price will they boot their machines and start mining (and selling) again?

Calculators are giving me a cost - with the top mining equipment, not counting price of equipment or anything else and equipment works perfectly - of ~8000$ in the USA, 19000 euros in Germany (there has to be a catch), 12000$ in France, 5000$ in China, 11500$ in the Netherlands.

Top 5 countries with their respective number of reachable nodes are as follow.

1 United States 2399 (23.58%)
2 Germany 1960 (19.27%)
3 France 681 (6.69%)
4 China 677 (6.65%)
5 Netherlands 493 (4.85%)

Ah France and the Netherlands, going crazy over bubbles since middle ages (mississipi company bubble, tulip bubble...).

So accounting for various costs, it would be safe to say that in China the costs are somewhere around 6000$... Which is why the selling stops there.

China, the USA, India, Canada even, these are huge countries with big dams and cheap electricity. Lmao I could have predicted the german miners wall back when Bitcoin was @ 19500$ and shorted there, damn me, feelsbadman.

In europe you might get a wall of miners around 12000$ + costs (... 12000$ back in early March we could check difficulty back then to guess the base cost and guesstimate things), the 9-10k wall resistance was probably the USA back in April (almost 1/4 of nodes m4*2) do they all use the top equipement too? It is 30% more efficient than number 2, on average it probably cost minimum 7000 to mine a Bitcoin + add other costs and alot of people are 30% less efficient 7000 * 1.3 = 9100.

Difficulty went up 80% but people got better equipment I guess or they are the only ones left whatever. 30% more efficient at least ===> cost only up 25% (180*0.7 = 126). 9900$ becomes 12300 today.

Basically keep an eye on Europe (France NL UK = 15% of total nodes and they all have approximately the same electricity costs add a few other countries in and you go up to 20%, Germany has a different cost and 20% nodes by itself), keep an eye on USA (8000$ bare minimum cost add 50% that brings us to 12000), and of course China. 5000 + 50% = 7500$ hence BIG resistance 7500$ brace yourselves.

Lmao this is actually insanely good wtf I am so good lolwut? XD

If we get enough people buying the dip after 7500$ rejection, next resistance is the USA resistance 12k. Then France NL UK 17k I suppose... By then maybe mining equipment improves. So ye... If the price goes up to these areas & TA looking guuud great place to short imo! if price goes up miraculously to 10k there are no miners selling at that price I guess, so rejection would not be "that crazy" right?

There is this trendline at 5500$ but idk... well we'll see, but even if we bounce on that there is still 7500$ resistance... so I will keep short I guess....

Oh btw fun fact so the big chinese industrial miners got an electricity cost of 5c which means producing 1 BTC costs them 3000$. There is a big support there too.

Oh another fun fact, if we end up losing that level, the cheapest it is for any miner to mine BTC, the whole thing will collapse, road to zero XD
You can't even withdraw or use your BTC ayyye lmao.
Comment: Ok let me post some more numbers.
The repartition of nodes is SO much what you would expect XD

NA: USA + Canada = 27%
NW europe: Germany + France + NL + UK = 34%
SE Asia: China + SKR + Japan + Singapore + HK = 14.5%
===> 75% for the "big" 3 regions

5% in unknown
10% in East europe + Scandinavia (Russia Ukraine Finland Sweden Norway)
0.25% in South Africa, 0.000% in the rest of Africa (still think Zimbabwe will save Bitcoin?)
Then 10% spread around the world (but mostly europe)

Oh also, the +50% thing, there are flat amounts involved, so the higher we go the less we add in percent (for example Americans think of getting 1000$ a month from mining not "x% returns" and europeans 1000 euros or something or they sell when they are up 1000, % is just boring complicated maths for financers).
Comment: Well... there is still potential for Bitcoin, even with all the mining...

"In 2014, Americans spent $70.15 billion on lottery tickets alone. That’s more than the total spending on music, books, sports teams, movies and video games combined, according to CNN Money."

Would be great if it went up, that would be the easiest shorts in our lives.

Bitcoin to replace the world lotteries in 2019?
Let's shill crypto to death and bring these worldwide hundreds of billions into traders (and miners and exchanges) pockets.
Comment: How do I tell the major crypto "bulls" with 100k+ followers they need to make 1 BILLION calls for Bitcoin?

All these morons are not excited by 1 million dollar, but make a call for 1 BILLION and they are going to lose their minds 'risking 1$ a week is nothing compared to how much I could make I hated maths at school by the way".

Just look at the lottery when the cash prize goes really high...

Is a call for 1 Billion dollar per Bitcoin unbelievably stupid and impossible? Yes.
Are the kind of people we want to target insanely dumb slugs with melted brains? Yes.

I say we try. Plenty of idiots left on this planet. If the USA lottery alone can generate over 50 billion from morons, Bitcoin MUST be able to get dozens of billions of money inflow from idiots all around the world.

Buys of 5k BTC on finex, so maybe 25k accross all exhanges, have pushed the price 10-15% (1000$) before 25k BTC = 25 million dollar.

If idiots all across the world lose some interest in lottery tickets and throw 1$ a week into crypto and BTC takes 1/3 of that... the potential is huge.

What we need is an cheap exchange that let's you buy a Bitocin lottery ticket for 1$...
Actually I never figured out who no one did this, seriously all the Arthur Hayes are delusional fools that take crytpo seriously? There is not a single crypto entrepreneur that understand how money works and knows how to be profitable?

Man, maybe I should create my own gambling "invest in Bitcoin" platform...

Well there are alot of high leverage crypto exhange that popped out, so they did understand the power of crypto lottery tickets. But making a *100 calculation is still too complex for your average lottery player.

If in 18 months BTC still has not collapsed, and is not guarenteed to fail, or some other crypto grabbed the flag, and no one did this, I guess MrRenev will launch his simple comprehensive crypto platform.
Maybe people are not going to want to wait 3 years...
So I would offer 2 options: bet on the short term move, bet on the long term.
Buy 1$ worth of BTC and if it goes to 1 million dollar in the next 3 years you make 1 million dollar.

I have to figure out what people would be most interested in. Must be extremely simple, "cheap", very high reward, no maths involved whatsoever...
Comment: Ok 1 more update then I stop spamming. After that fantasy land Bitcoin can see dozens of billions of dollars of cash income little delirium I have to post something realistic.

Just posting simple facts and numbers here:

2011-2012: Group of people A buys Bitcoin.
2013-2014: Group of people B buys Bitcoin. 90% of that buying happens on MtGox. Their Bitcoin gets frozen. Only group of people A, up 1000, 2000% or more gets to sell.
2014-2015: Group of people C buy Bitcoin for 200-500$.
2016-2017: Bitcoin goes up up up. The majority of buyers, group B, are up 1000% after a few painful years, BUT tough luck their Bitcoin are frozen and they cannot sell.
2018: Group C is up 1000-2000%. The price crashes. Group of people D buys Bitcoin for around 6500$. Group B are getting 200,000 of their Bitcoin back from MtGox in 2019. Group A B C D all have their Bitcoin by 2019, nothing is frozen.

I wonder what could possibly go wrong?
We went up last time right, so we should go up this time too (250 IQ bulletproof logic).

Comment: Regarding what I said about a collapse if all miners left.

Let me explain how difficulty adjustment works (if I understood this correctly XD)

Every 2016th block that has been created, the network looks back to see how long it took to create those 2016 blocks.

As of today a DragonMint 16T (the best of the best there is and its price is 2500$)
mines 0.2 BTC per year (so @ 6500$ BTC it would take 2 years to get your money back if electricity was free).

If mining stopped being profitable and every one stopped mining, then you got the big farms like Bitmain that keep farming just to save Bitcoin, until they go bankrupt and their electricity gets shut down, say you get 3000 die hards in the world that buy a DragonMint 16T (if that keeps getting sold) and spend 150$ a month on electricity just to mine BTC and save it.

3000 miners = 600 BTC mined per year or 48 blocks at 12.5 BTC/block (considering no power failures all running optimally all the time, no tornadoes or floods caused by global warming caused by idiots wasting electricity to mine magic beans).
At that rate, it would take 42 years for the difficulty to adjust.

Oh and if they get lucky and start mining when 95% of 2016 were discovered, it would adapt in only 2.1 years, but it would adapt to an average of the previous speed not to THEIR speed so it would still be pretty difficult.
Takes 2 years, network wants it to take 10 minutes, difficulty is reduced by 105120. They mined 5% in 2 years and it got 105120 times more easy. Next run will take 3 hours. Miracle scenario. If they are not lucky, dozens of years and that is there is a mass sacrifice in a community of extremely greedy people. Good luck.

There are 10.000 full nodes in the world.

If 10 crazy people sacrifice themselves and buy Dragonmint's and full farm, they would generate 2 BTC a year, or 12600 years for 2016 blocks. No problem. Just H0DL for the long term.

Bitmain farm in Texas cost them 500 million$ Money does not grow on tree's...
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what happened? You seem like the perfect example how price change peoples opinion of crypto.
too many of your previous charts around Feb etc you seem very hyped and sure about this crypto thing.

Now its doomsday. Did you lose much?
Also, seems to me your analysis is 50/50. Id love to see if you actually manage to make money trading because I call BS. (until proven otherwise).

Have a great day otherwise
+5 Reply
MrRenev Jbergene

1- very first idea on TV:

2- Trading log 1

3- Trading log 2

I only started posting about crypto long term when it started becoming too boring to look at short term moves a few months ago...

DW I'll be bullish when the time is right if that ever happens.
+1 Reply
MrRenev Jbergene
@Jbergene, Hey if you look at the beloved crypto bulls they were all very much against Bitcoin 3 years ago and now these geniusses are all bullish. Can't make this up, this is gold XD

Go check beloved crypto bull Goldbug, that has kept saying he believes strongly in Bitcoin past 12 months and is heavilly invested and in "for the long term" with 100% certainty Bitcoin will be bigger than the internet and make every one a millionaire and is NOT a bubble.

In 2017 up till november (when BTC went mainstream media hyperbolic) he was calling it a bubble and perma bear.

Trying to filter for his long term ideas this is what I got - I noticed that by looking at comments where he was getting angry at bulls - same way he gets angry at bears now...

4 November, calling a top telling every one to chill out BTC is dead:

LMAO the 10 November he was still calling Bitcoin a bubble top, and once Bitcoin ACTUALLY WENT TO MAKE A BUBBLE TOP, HE CHANGED HIS MIND AND BECOME A PERMA BULL. AND PEOPLE ARE LOVING IT!
>>code is full of bugs
Lol what?

Are you just pulling that statement out of your arse, or are you a software engineer who has thoroughly reviewed the BTC code repository and found numerous bugs that the world at large are unaware of? i'm guessing the former

Your analysis is haphazard and shoddy.

BTC is a very risky investment. But not a "BAD" one.
+5 Reply
MrRenev lonknex
@lonknex, I am a software engineer and have been for 6 years I think, more than 10 if you count my time in school where I was working as a software engineer part time + learning to become one...
Hey last time I posted a link on Trading View I got my idea banned. People that post links to their youtube with spaceships pointing to 1 million $ BTC don't get but I do not draw spaceships poiting to 1 million hence I am not allowed to post links.

It is all public, you can verify for yourself, Bitocin developers unsurprisingly straight up LIE all the time about the solidity of their code, but they cannot hide everything and they sometimes get caught.
If you are a crypto investor and did not review at least some of the code yourself... you did something wrong here.
MrRenev lonknex
@lonknex, Just had an inception illuminati hans zimmer moment... I was still in engineer school in 2011, studying about code & ELECTRONIC PAYMENTS OVER THE INTERNET. AND I NEVER HEARD OF BITCOIN.
Wtf is this randomness RNG? I was supposed to hear about Bitcoin back then, and asked my mum to buy me a bunch for 5 euros. HEY! I do not agree about this. If someone was supposed to hear about Bitcoin that was me. It was my subject. Something is wrong in the frabric of the universe. fml. Bad luck to compensate extreme IQ I guess, this is what god has choosen for me.
Oh wait nvm, I still don't care about missing out.

Cannot change what's in the past, so why even care?
BTC was a risky investment in 2013, now everything shows it is BAD and I still am waiting for bulls to show me actual arguments. Even I, a bear, was capable of coming with the lottery argument that gives a slight probability for BTC to go up, can't be that hard? Or is no one giving us valid arguments because are there simply NO valid arguments?
+1 Reply
75% of americans know about bitcoin. False. You must not be american. I am, born and bred and that number isn't even close. 90% of those who have heard about bitcoin have no clue of what it is and I mean that literally. I just graduated with a tech degree in June in cyber security and at last count 5 people including me had purchased bitcoin out of the several hundred people I knew at the college. 2 of which, sold their small bag within 2 weeks because they just wanted to introduce themselves to the process, wallet, exhcanges etc.

None of my family members or friends are interested in bitcoin,however when their is another run, i can guarantee you they will come around asking questions because of our conversations. I don't know about Europe or your other claims but don't let the door hit you on the way out. Deuces.

Home of Microsfot, Amazon, bittrex, F5 Networks, Boeing, Vulcan tech, Blue Origin, zillow, Paccar, T-Mobile, PopCap, AreNanet, Big Fish Games, Sucker punch production, Smartsheet, PayScale, Panotp etc etc etc.
+3 Reply
MrRenev Halley
@Halley, OMG tell me your secret! You must be a super powerful sorcerer, you know people that bought and sold Bitcoin yet never heard about the thing, betetr yet! You had conversations about Bitcoin with people that never heard about it :p!
Jk, seriously, when I said "know" I just meant bare minimum they know the name and they heard the stories of the Bitocin millionaire, I did not mean "know know" no one ever "knows knows" anything anyway...

Well anyway in europe absolutely every single one I met in the past 10 months has heard about Bitcoin and knows it is a currency and what a wallet is. 75% of americans seems low actually. The 25% that don't know what Bitcoin is are the same 25% that do not know who the president is? XD
Halley MrRenev
I'm telling you bru, sincerely, americans are fickle. You're giving this american market far too much credit. And that 25% who typically doesn't know who the sitting president is... they do now because they voted for the current president. That should tell you something. they are sheep. These fools think if it wasn't invented here or sold in a bank or on Amazon or they can't easily buy with a credit card in one step then its probably a socialist fraud.
The multi-millionaire bitcoin investor doesn't impress anyone here. But a billion dollar lottery and everyone wants to throw hundreds of dollars at it.
Ultimately, maybe you're on to something with your projections, dunno. But americans who aren't typical investors... are your fomo crowd. Pretty sure we're mostly responsible for buying the top last year. Hopefully we made you some money!
MrRenev Halley
@Halley, afaik europeans are the ones that heard about crypto last. And surveys show half of 2017-2018 Bitcoin buyers are "minorities" and alot of the remaining 50% are women.
So seems to me white and asian men bought Bitcoin in 2013-2014 for a few hundred $$$ & then Zimbabwe, women, african american, rednecks, bought Bitcoin "cheap" for only 5000 to 10000$ to really "give it to the man" (give more of their money than usual "to the man"). People are really tired of old white men ruling wall street and making money, instead they would rather give their money to millenial white men gg wp good revolution.

Well the 75% number comes form a survey on the internet from people that do surveys, so maybe they do not represent the people that live in the woods with bears.

But in NW europe I hear Bitcoin everywhere, every one seems to know about it, and the USA seem pretty similar... 85% of the USA are europeans also. I don't see alot of americans are being "super backwards" there are sheep every where. And mate, I lived 3 months in KENTUCKY. It cannot get worse than this... come on... Worse than Kentucky??? really?

Anyway, no matter what the true number actually is or if people would buy BTC if they knew more about it, what is important is the ratio 2013/2018. 3 times more people know about BTC, there are 4 times more transactions, there are like 100 times more speculators (so 25 times more as many speculators as actual users), etc. Very hyped, a ton of "competition". No one ever made money sharing with legions of people.
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