Pretty much the same chart as I posted last time, just updating thoughts and timing a little bit now that price action has played out more.
I'm fairly confident that this move down right here will mark the short term bottom. I'm thinking that we could get a strong bounce up to the low to mid 50k range (51k-56k) as the next move to confirm resistance, which would then setup a fall lower. The question then would be how low we go?
I could see us just going back to retest the 32k-34k bottom of this structure, which would setup a larger bounce higher after (this is my bias right now). Or, I could see us breaking through the structure and testing 23k. In either way, stay cautious in the coming weeks/months, as a rejection in that 50k range would setup a sharp decline lower.
I've just gone fully long and am targeting to exit crypto again sometime in March/April. Then should the move lower play out, reenter towards the end of May.
Let's see how price action plays out from here.
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Just to be fully transparent, I exited all of my crypto positions after BTC just broke that low right now. I think there's too much risk that we fall further from here. Lower targets on the chart would be in play if we break the 32k low.
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Here's my reasoning for exiting and my updated BTC idea. We'll need to see if this plays out from here:
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Hmmm relooking at old charts and ideas and it looks like it could still play out this way.
@DU09, or you are wrong and waiting for new lows like everyone else when the market looks to be bouncing.
DU09
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@benjihyam, Short term I agree, long term it's a big question.
benjihyam
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@DU09, Well yeah, I agree with you there. It's what I said in my analysis. That I think we're just bouncing to test resistance before going back to $32-34k and/or finding new lows.
benjihyam
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@DU09 okay, you were right. 33.8k-34.4k and then we get the bounce.