It could be due to an increase of liquidity in the markets, but this crash, unlike the previous one, has not had any notable shakeouts. On December 22/January 17 and February 5 we saw some old-school candles and after those we have not seen anything else similar. At least not with the sharpness that contained the shakeouts and selloffs in the 2014 crash.
We can hardly count 3 hard selloffs from december and all of them at the start of the crash. In the 2014 crash instead we can count at least 5 : December of 2013, February, April and October of 2014 and January of 2015.
It is clear that for one reason or another (probably due to liquidity as main factor) the shakeouts and selloffs are becoming less and less frequents in bitcoin . We still have one or two pending scares to arrive before we can finish the crash, which, according to our point of view, would take us around $ 2400.
However, a real shakeout like in the final phase of 2014 led bitcoin to fall in 32 hours from $ 270 to $ 171 (-63% in price).
If something similar happened, using similar numbers we would see bitcoin in the range of $ 1200-1900 for a short time. However, and seeing the behavior of bitcoin in this crash, we are quite skeptical about this happening.
@jasonxh, We will make an update in the next two days.
elaea
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Do you suggest putting stop-losses if our buy orders get filled at 2400-2600$ level?
Also do you take volume in consideration?
Thanks, great work.
Billmaxsy
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@elaea, You should ever put stop losses, however in shakeout events those can be very tricky. If you really got faith in crypto tech and bitcoin itself you may have really low-positioned stop losses, if you are not sure, then a stop loss in the 1xxx could be a good idea.
We take volume in consideration and it's acting accordingly.