Before the Winklevoss Gemini ETF was disapproved for a second time by the SEC (July 26th, 2018) I was firmly bullish on BTCUSD.
I believe BTCUSD has completed its correction from the all time high (ATH) which I determined using the three-fan principle. Simply three trends spanning from the ATH down through each major upward corrective wave high during the correction. A break and close over the third fan indicates bullish intent. This is where I look for bullish chart patterns such as the bull flag that formed on July 21st.
I am still bullish on BTCUSD as it is still holding above fan three. I note here that no other coin in the top four cryptocurrencies are above fan three (ETH, XRP and BCH). That said 8,500 is firm resistance and support currently appears to be around 5,880. 8,500 resistance coincided with the CME's bitcoin futures expiration at 2:45PM GMT on July 27th, 2018 and also, as mentioned above, the second disapproval of the Winklevoss Gemini ETF. It appears that the BTCUSD market will not rally on any news other than the SEC's approval of an ETF. In the immediate future, we have today CBOE's bitcoin futures expiration at 9:00PM GMT August 15th, 2018. Then at the end of the month CME's bitcoin futures expiration at 2:45PM GMT on August 31st, 2018. BTCUSD is currently downtrending within a parallel channel that ranges ~2,700 with the major bullish uptrend since its inception still intact. The test of this uptrend appears to be at 4,700. My thoughts are that this channel will continue through to the end of August as the market continues to look for direction.
It is probable that the second half of September will provide us with some certainty of direction. CBOE's bitcoin futures expiration at 9PM GMT on September 19th, 2018 closely followed by the SEC's decision to approve or disapprove the VanEck SolidX ETF on September 21st, 2018. I am of the opinion that we will see a speculative rally in BTCUSD similar to that from the beginning of July, 2018 leading up to the VanEck SEC decision so possibly beginning September 1st leading up to the 21st.
To conclude this is a summary of my thoughts on the immediate future of BTCUSD leading up to the end of September. I am bullish but this will not be confirmed until BTCUSD breaks over 8,500 resistance. At which point my first target is 9,950; the probable test of the significant 10K. This is completely reliant on BTCUSD remaining over fan three and holding its main bullish trend over 4,700.
Timeline: > CBOE Bitcoin Futures Expiration 9:00PM August 15th, 2018 > CME Bitcoin Futures Expiration 2:45PM August 31st, 2018 > CBOE Bitcoin Futures Expiration 9:00PM September 19th, 2018 > SEC VanEck SolidX Approval/ Disapproval Decision September 21st, 2018 > CME Bitcoin Futures Expiration 2:45PM September 28th, 2018