Bitcoin: The only thing certain in life is death and STIMMIES
A bearish setup amidst an early stage historical rally (some perspective)
oke here we are again. A few weeks ago the bears were out (since being slaughtered from a minor correction from 40k which didn't even register on the monthly chart). 'Could this be the top' we heard? ...just wait until this question becomes so absurd that even the notion of publicly contemplating such will naturally be accompanied by a shred of embarrasement, then, after 3-5 new highs you can silently consider the potential for a local/interim top (lol). But that will be in the second half of the year.
Anyway. here we are again, a few weeks ago I had to make an appearance in the TV chat to deride the 'experts' on how a single bearish signal (a weekly bear rsi bear div ) was not, in it of itself, a reason to be bearish . Looks like that proved to be prescient as we just made yet another new ATH . Where are we now? Now we have a bit of a different situation, if I had to compare it to something it would be the chat "BTCUSD Elliot Wave Analysis: how to be the best" linked in the related charts. This time we have a legitimate bearish *setup. What makes this a legitimate setup? Well, we have a *confluence* of bearish signals on multiple time frames (see below)
1 week bear divs:
3d bear divs:
With that said, put that in your pocket, and take a look at the monthly chart (published above). Well DAYAM, have u ever seen something more suggestive of making history in your life? Me neither.
So, what to make of it all? A bearish setup, is, just that. A setup. It means there is a real possibility
of a move, but possibility does not turn to probabliity until certain conditions are met. And, in a bull market,
the burden of proof is on the bears. If we break the lows of this daily candle look for something like this:
1d bear divs + potential 'flat correction' a-b-c:
1h chart for context to the above:
Time is of the essence, as always. If the monthly candle is going to be wrecked, the weekly, 3d, and daily bearish
reversals confirmed, it's prob going to have to happen within the next few days or so. Such a scenario would create a reversal candle on the monthly chart. A reversal candle would provide the perfect atmosphere for braindead shorts (who fail to recognize there's always plenty of reversal candles on the way up which fail to materialize via the following candle breaking the previous candle's lows, which even then are not a guarantee of a reversal but merely a prerequisite) to pile up even further, only to be shattered to the upside the following month.
Alternatively, when this does not happen (still more probable until proven otherwise), the failure to do so sets up the most bullish conditions i've possibly ever seen on a chart (failed high TF bearish setups are extremely bullish ). Lets consider the non-ta stuffz. Over the weekend we had Novagratz (similar to the guggenheim goiy at 40k) jawboning for a nice pull back. His rationale: "the price went up over the weekend, and that signifies retatil is involved, thus #topthangz)...uhm. Oke. Idk my mikey, my boy. That seems just a bit too oversimplistic narrative-ey for me. Then, like magic, on monday India bans a (kind of, maybe, already banned) bitcoin . Sound familiar? Aint nothing new under the son in crypto, cept the markets don wisened up since our china days. Whether we pull back or not, one thing seems pretty damn clear: these markets could not care less what Janet Yellen, Christine Lagayard, India, or the buddah himself have to say. Now of course, if in the future they can temporally link a price drop with a quote, MSM gonna MSM and all that jazz. But I digress.
Mikey says retail has fomo'd in, sells some deep bags, then has his buddies in india drop a few (already in the works) headlines. Accept, maybe, the market doesnt panic the way he was expecting. Lets dig deeper into his narrative. Retail is heavily involved in this market? (btw, eventually every breathing being on this earth (alien or not) will own some amount of bitcoin sooo). Giga-chad mike saylor taking us from 10k to 40k, then elon is passed the baton which ultimately pushes us to 60k. Retail driven? This is the least retail influenced market in the history of bitcoin my G, or my nova-G. Or my mike nova-G, lol. But mike knows that. Mike wants cheap coinz, can't hate the playa gotta hate the game I suppose. Finally, STIMMIES R COMING. The stimmies r coming, the stimmies r coming! And there are literally surveys which conclude ppl want to invest 20 friggin billion $ of them into bitcoin . Hmmm. Elon bought a billin or so, saylor 2 bil? Meditate on that. Not to mention, retail doesnt buy OTC.
So, retail is coming, it seems they don't very much like being front run by the corporations (I wonder how corporations 4-20 that are preparing to add btc to their balance sheets and will only get half as much as elon will feel about this?). Also, I have a question, do u goiys thinkz retail will buy alt cons? Those pesky lil things, they are so much cheaper than those expensive bit cons. Dogecondarkdotlink is the future of advanced blockchain interwebz3.0 technology u say? GET ME SOME.
Let's rap up this novel, we hear at LARPCAPITAL (the biggest decentralized autonomous crowdsourced investment firm (DACI?) in the world are wildly bullish on alts and bitcoin with an acknowledgement of a bearish setup.
gluck
DISCLOSURE: This advice which is financial in nature is CERTAINLY not investment advice. Please consult a certified financial analyst who probably thinks bitcoin is a ponzi scheme for that.
oke here we are again. A few weeks ago the bears were out (since being slaughtered from a minor correction from 40k which didn't even register on the monthly chart). 'Could this be the top' we heard? ...just wait until this question becomes so absurd that even the notion of publicly contemplating such will naturally be accompanied by a shred of embarrasement, then, after 3-5 new highs you can silently consider the potential for a local/interim top (lol). But that will be in the second half of the year.
Anyway. here we are again, a few weeks ago I had to make an appearance in the TV chat to deride the 'experts' on how a single bearish signal (a weekly bear rsi bear div ) was not, in it of itself, a reason to be bearish . Looks like that proved to be prescient as we just made yet another new ATH . Where are we now? Now we have a bit of a different situation, if I had to compare it to something it would be the chat "BTCUSD Elliot Wave Analysis: how to be the best" linked in the related charts. This time we have a legitimate bearish *setup. What makes this a legitimate setup? Well, we have a *confluence* of bearish signals on multiple time frames (see below)
1 week bear divs:
3d bear divs:
With that said, put that in your pocket, and take a look at the monthly chart (published above). Well DAYAM, have u ever seen something more suggestive of making history in your life? Me neither.
So, what to make of it all? A bearish setup, is, just that. A setup. It means there is a real possibility
of a move, but possibility does not turn to probabliity until certain conditions are met. And, in a bull market,
the burden of proof is on the bears. If we break the lows of this daily candle look for something like this:
1d bear divs + potential 'flat correction' a-b-c:
1h chart for context to the above:
Time is of the essence, as always. If the monthly candle is going to be wrecked, the weekly, 3d, and daily bearish
reversals confirmed, it's prob going to have to happen within the next few days or so. Such a scenario would create a reversal candle on the monthly chart. A reversal candle would provide the perfect atmosphere for braindead shorts (who fail to recognize there's always plenty of reversal candles on the way up which fail to materialize via the following candle breaking the previous candle's lows, which even then are not a guarantee of a reversal but merely a prerequisite) to pile up even further, only to be shattered to the upside the following month.
Alternatively, when this does not happen (still more probable until proven otherwise), the failure to do so sets up the most bullish conditions i've possibly ever seen on a chart (failed high TF bearish setups are extremely bullish ). Lets consider the non-ta stuffz. Over the weekend we had Novagratz (similar to the guggenheim goiy at 40k) jawboning for a nice pull back. His rationale: "the price went up over the weekend, and that signifies retatil is involved, thus #topthangz)...uhm. Oke. Idk my mikey, my boy. That seems just a bit too oversimplistic narrative-ey for me. Then, like magic, on monday India bans a (kind of, maybe, already banned) bitcoin . Sound familiar? Aint nothing new under the son in crypto, cept the markets don wisened up since our china days. Whether we pull back or not, one thing seems pretty damn clear: these markets could not care less what Janet Yellen, Christine Lagayard, India, or the buddah himself have to say. Now of course, if in the future they can temporally link a price drop with a quote, MSM gonna MSM and all that jazz. But I digress.
Mikey says retail has fomo'd in, sells some deep bags, then has his buddies in india drop a few (already in the works) headlines. Accept, maybe, the market doesnt panic the way he was expecting. Lets dig deeper into his narrative. Retail is heavily involved in this market? (btw, eventually every breathing being on this earth (alien or not) will own some amount of bitcoin sooo). Giga-chad mike saylor taking us from 10k to 40k, then elon is passed the baton which ultimately pushes us to 60k. Retail driven? This is the least retail influenced market in the history of bitcoin my G, or my nova-G. Or my mike nova-G, lol. But mike knows that. Mike wants cheap coinz, can't hate the playa gotta hate the game I suppose. Finally, STIMMIES R COMING. The stimmies r coming, the stimmies r coming! And there are literally surveys which conclude ppl want to invest 20 friggin billion $ of them into bitcoin . Hmmm. Elon bought a billin or so, saylor 2 bil? Meditate on that. Not to mention, retail doesnt buy OTC.
So, retail is coming, it seems they don't very much like being front run by the corporations (I wonder how corporations 4-20 that are preparing to add btc to their balance sheets and will only get half as much as elon will feel about this?). Also, I have a question, do u goiys thinkz retail will buy alt cons? Those pesky lil things, they are so much cheaper than those expensive bit cons. Dogecondarkdotlink is the future of advanced blockchain interwebz3.0 technology u say? GET ME SOME.
Let's rap up this novel, we hear at LARPCAPITAL (the biggest decentralized autonomous crowdsourced investment firm (DACI?) in the world are wildly bullish on alts and bitcoin with an acknowledgement of a bearish setup.
gluck
DISCLOSURE: This advice which is financial in nature is CERTAINLY not investment advice. Please consult a certified financial analyst who probably thinks bitcoin is a ponzi scheme for that.
Comment:
well oke well done burs support broken...scenario 2 it is
Comment:
2 targets...conservative and aggressive
Comment:
In elliot, the process begins with analyzing the small picture and zooming out. Lots of conflicting info regarding the small picture and thus we have reason to zoom out, and things perhaps begin to make more sense. This looks like the most likely count (we may have just completed wave 3). The fifth wave of wave three looks to be a terminal 5th wave with an extended wave 1, which would mean wave 5 of wave 5 of wave 3 is complete or near complete as wave 3 can not be the smallest wave.
This also would corroborate with the targets I had posted.
wave 5 of wave 5 of wave 3, if a failure, must be shorter than wave 4 (the definition of a failure).
In reality, if near complete, trading wise there would be plenty of room between here and a 40% move up (the size of wave 3 of wave of wave 3), but zooming into the 1h we can see a zig zag and potential c wave failure, confirmed upon breaking the 0-b line down within the time it took to form c (it should break below ~55k within the next 9 hours). This would confirm the larger move we have been expecting as mentioned previously related to a confluence of larger time frame bearish divergences.
Simple enough, eh?
In reality, if near complete, trading wise there would be plenty of room between here and a 40% move up (the size of wave 3 of wave of wave 3), but zooming into the 1h we can see a zig zag and potential c wave failure, confirmed upon breaking the 0-b line down within the time it took to form c (it should break below ~55k within the next 9 hours). This would confirm the larger move we have been expecting as mentioned previously related to a confluence of larger time frame bearish divergences.
Simple enough, eh?
Comment:
sorry didn't post the 1h chart showing potential c wave failure, here it is:
gluck
Comment:
While wave c went a bit higher this allows for more time for the 0-b line to be retraced within the time it took c to form (confirming the proper count and end of a zig zag):
Bearish short term picture still very much in play. Even more confirmation of the correct coutn and move down when we break the purple 2-4 line on higher time frames
bull scenario/count
else:
gluck