Good morning, traders. Bitcoin has held relatively steady between $3900 and $4100. We know that it should be retracing after such a bullish push up, but we don't know whether it is done rising for the time being or if it has just a bit further to go. There is a case to be made for a $4200/$4360 target as we discussed in yesterday update as well as the morning live stream. As a matter of fact, the 1H R5 pivot sits at $4305. Additionally, we can see a diamond pattern forming, as well as an ascending triangle in the right side of that diamond. A successful close above that triangle's resistance produces a target of $4250 and above the diamond's descending resistance would provide a target of $4360. That move up toward the diamond target would also print an ascending wedge thereby likely marking the end of the upward momentum. We should also look for any upside movement to likely be halted by the ascending resistance of the diamond, which happens to align with the proposed diamond target. An indication of upward progression getting under way would likely be 1H RSI pushing through it's descending resistance.
A close below the swing low at $3886 should signal that the retrace is in progress while a close above the swing high at $4172 sets into motion the higher targets mentioned. Traders can also watch for a close below the ascending green channel's support. The local red TR suggests possible distribution, as price consolidates just under the large blue TR's resistance, but the final thrust up just a bit higher could be the UTAD before markdown into that retracement. The move into the area between the blue TR's AR and failed upthrust (denoted with the black horizontal line around $4415) is generally what we expect with accumulation after the TR's Phase B ST has printed. I will be looking to go short in either of these cases but for right now will just continue watching the chart to find that entry. Currently, I am expecting the retracement to target the $3500-$3600 level, but that level may change slightly depending on whether price heads up for one final push or not. Attempting to trade this area is extremely risky and, in my belief, not worth the profit one may potential make. For me, there's not enough profit available to make it worth my while for that level of risk that I would need to take on in order to enter right now.
Looking at the 1D, we can see that we've had five days of green candles and this current sixth candle creating, at the very least, a pause. We still have a target of $4850 based on the large descending channel that price closed above yesterday.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
A close below the swing low at $3886 should signal that the retrace is in progress while a close above the swing high at $4172 sets into motion the higher targets mentioned. Traders can also watch for a close below the ascending green channel's support. The local red TR suggests possible distribution, as price consolidates just under the large blue TR's resistance, but the final thrust up just a bit higher could be the UTAD before markdown into that retracement. The move into the area between the blue TR's AR and failed upthrust (denoted with the black horizontal line around $4415) is generally what we expect with accumulation after the TR's Phase B ST has printed. I will be looking to go short in either of these cases but for right now will just continue watching the chart to find that entry. Currently, I am expecting the retracement to target the $3500-$3600 level, but that level may change slightly depending on whether price heads up for one final push or not. Attempting to trade this area is extremely risky and, in my belief, not worth the profit one may potential make. For me, there's not enough profit available to make it worth my while for that level of risk that I would need to take on in order to enter right now.
Looking at the 1D, we can see that we've had five days of green candles and this current sixth candle creating, at the very least, a pause. We still have a target of $4850 based on the large descending channel that price closed above yesterday.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Comment:
Pay attention to breakdown of the possible ascending wedge. The target is just below the swing low, so we could see a bullish SFP print that uses the shorts sitting just below the swing low to create liquidity as they fill waiting longs for a final push up.
Comment:
As we readjust to compensate for that small dip and return we just had, this may be playing out which would indicate one more move up.
Comment:
Just got back into town but wanted to update what we discussed during this morning's live stream if you didn't catch it. The breakdown from what I believed was distribution did occur and it looks like we have completed that wave 4 now. As such, we should be heading up in wave 5. Target remains what it was yesterday and today -- the red box.
Comment:
Movement is looking weak. Rally volume continues to drop. Ascending wedge in play that could be wave 4, which means we'd have a wave 5 over-extension to around $3535. That would mean we completed 5 waves up and this current corrective move is the wave 2.
This would potentially lead to the IHS we've been talking about for a couple of weeks, and that target would create an over-extended wave 3 to around $5240 in the upper supply zone. Wave 5 would then target $5800 most likely.
This would then mimic the accumulation path I was leaning toward which is without a spring as I discussed in
This would potentially lead to the IHS we've been talking about for a couple of weeks, and that target would create an over-extended wave 3 to around $5240 in the upper supply zone. Wave 5 would then target $5800 most likely.
This would then mimic the accumulation path I was leaning toward which is without a spring as I discussed in
