A potential pattern that is forming is a Head and Shoulders right now in this channel. Couple reasons why I believe this will manifest and confirm the move down.
1. MACD cross on the daily and moving down. 2. Trend line broken to the upside 3. RSI confirming divergence 4. Pattern is manifesting itself as a H&S.
The smaller time frames are also aligning with this, but slowly. The more this goes sideways and not up, the more it will confirm this pattern.
Of course, it could just move up. Which is fine. this type of pattern also gives us enough of a formation that we can play the upside. If we get a confirmed break above this 10k mark, we should be able to play it to the upside a bit.
Happy Trading, please let me know my analysis helps by hitting that like button.
-Sherem
"It's better to be out of the market wishing you were in, then in the market wishing you were out"
One of my previous calls-
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Chart update: We might get a move up, but hard to tell if it happens or not before the larger move down.
According to your old chart reference with updated information, wouldn't BTC shorts be up and longs down if BTC price was going down? BTC longs are slightly up, shorts are down, and price is up. Doesn't seem to jive like your early April prediction did.
I believe we are in disbelief phase, will battle resistance levels, and push higher within 1-2 weeks.
Sherem
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@bbanno2, My earlier chart said we could go anywhere from 9k-11.5k. Which we have.
In reference to my earlier chart, i think we could be where we were in mid november. We got about a 20-30% move down before going up. Shorts and Longs went down even further before we got a significant move. If we do move down the real question is, where do we base out and how. That will be really telling with how it plays out afterwards.
If we break this 10k area it should provide a trade to 11.5k area.
jimo79
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Look at October 2017. We were in the exact same position with the daily MACD, but the crossover was only short lived and it went on to make a higher high MACD push. I think we are in the same position. 1hr, 2hr, 4hr, 8hr Stoch RSI are all bottomed out and daily almost there. I feel like this correction is coming to an end and we will push up as per your previous call and complete the X just as we did in Oct-Dec
jimo79
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@jimo79, for clarification we are following a similar fractal in October and we are sitting around Oct 25/26 period right now
Sherem
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@jimo79, Way different circumstances from October. Those months we had BTC searches hitting all time highs, brokers couldn't keep up with new accounts being opened, etc... The problem is none of that is going on right now. BTC searches are back down to where they were long ago. New accounts have significantly decreased. If we move up, it's gonna be slow.
Another thing, check out TradingView hits, they are slower and you can see interest wanes on the top authors. Check on MagicPoopCannns views-( Granted, I think some of his charts are bogus.) But just 2 months ago he would hit 40-60k view really quick and now some of his posts take time just cracking 30k.
jimo79
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@Sherem, yes of course the price action might not be as significant (high), but the trend may still go in the same direction. Of course one move away from the trend will invalidate the idea, but so far its been following the trend of October for over a month and hasn't been invalidated yet. And a push above 10k and more significantly above 11.8k will bring in more bulls and media attention that BTC is back.
Sherem
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@jimo79, For sure. If it breaks 10k I will be buying the break out. We should get a move to 11.5k at least once that happens
I believe we are in disbelief phase, will battle resistance levels, and push higher within 1-2 weeks.