Bitcoin now appears to be in a flat wave 4 of a 5 wave crash structure. If correct the 5th wave could crash down to the 16-17K area in a devastating collapse.
Potential wave 3 respected the 1.618 projection at 35.4K taken from 0,1,2 pivots. Price only wicked through and shows this is likely correct.
Wave 5 target is a 1:1 projection from wave 4 at 16.2K.
(An elliott wave = wave 1-3-5 = 1:1.618:1, so wave 3 taken from wave 1 is a 1:1.618 and wave 5 taken from wave 1 is a 1:1. Also note these are log based fibs)
Also notice there is support in the 16-17K range to add confluence to this projection. Bitcoin has already tested 30K support, so this projection would take price to the next step down.
Wave 4 estimated using fib-time from pivots 0,1,2 projected to the wave completion of 2.618. Wave 5 estimated the same using pivots 1,2,3 to 2.618.
If correct there will likely be a large bounce to follow.
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Negative commenters and anyone else are welcome to check my previous projections.
Firstly where I called the Bitcoin top back in March -
And when I called the top having passed and a projection back to 20K back in April -
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I called this top 2 months ago today when EVERYONE was looking to the stars. ☺
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There's a lot of talk of bounces so just to reiterate my stance - there will be a very large bounce, but its not going to be here. Price is very regressive, locked in tightening bands and this is very bearish and should lead to another smashing ride down in the elevator for those that dare to be short. Price is not going to grow wings and fly whilst being flushed down the plughole. This is not a bottoming formation, it is a continuation pattern. Following regressive action, price can only muster a big bounce following a heavy capitulation - thats why its called a "bounce," not an impulse.
And it will be a big bounce but not a wave 5 moonshot. There is about 0 chance of that happening imo.
i like your idea and played very well sofar, thanks for sharing
eman1371
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this will never be top why ?? top is where everything is top not just price . RSI was not top volume was not top greed was not top Google search was not top and also price action . which top has 15 weeks of sideways action
dRends35
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@eman1371, Volume topped January, RSI bearish divergent since then, Fear-and-Greed index topped November, Google irrelevant, "15 weeks of sideways action" was a Wyckoff distribution top.
@dRends35, lo. Thanks for an excellent post and a funny comment. A post to watch closely for sure.
dreiframe1314
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Worse case scenario i think institutional n whales will crash btc down to 20k or 15k and reset the bull run shaking all weak hands out and they scoop up cheap btc.
electronicTouc3440
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Although I read your post on the Wyckoff distribution about month late, you saved me a lot of money when I exited before the crash. Anyone who does not include you in their top tier of investment research does themself a disservice.