BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
747 10
Bitcoin is still in a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart . It appears to be an ABCDE flag pattern . At this point there is a strong possibility of at least testing for a double bottom at the C point low within the 61.8 - 78.6 retracement zone, and depending on how the market reacts on the double bottom test it could go lower to a 75% projection as labelled with 100% projection as a worst case scenario.

We need to see the market break up out of the triangle as well as the macd resistance, in impulsive fashion in order to shift our perspectives toward the bullish side of things, however as it stands now this does appear to be in a bear market.
Comment: Forgot to add, If the market can breakout above the D point before making a lower low E point it will shift my perspective.
Comment: 6k "support" is highly likely to get sliced in this environment and head to 3k zone. Sentiment is in the toilet and there are no signs of slowing things down on the downside. Stay safe.
Comment: Note: 3k apex happens around late May / early June.
Comment: - updated chart
Comment: Decent rally over the last few days have invigorated some bulls, however it simply appears to be a bear market rally unless it can impulsively break out over the D leg highs. Still maintain my bearish bias on the daily timeframe.

Comment: did somebody say bear market rally?

Comment: no change to the count. likely to have our double bottom test soon with a bounce thereafter, followed by lower lows.

Comment: havent posted an update in a while. so here it is. ive moved my yellow 2 down this looks better. 3k target still on tap.

Comment: recent rally looks like a short covering rally to these eyes. some key overhead levels will have to be broken to the upside impulsively for me to shift my perspective to bullish. Until then i maintain my bearish bias of lower lows.
Comment: My count is real close to being violated big time. If BTC continues to rally I will have to abandon this count and adopt NotGemini's count as I do not believe this primary wave 4 is finished to the downside. Evil Mr market could ruin peoples lives forever with a b wave trap in the 10-14k zone.

Comment: call me crazy but maybe this count isn't entirely dead yet.

Comment: Bitcoin stopped dead in its track at the 10k level. If it continues to get rejected here this count could still be valid as the daily would still be a stair step down of lower highs and lower lows.
Comment: this bear doesn't look done yet folks.
Comment: another possible scenario.
folks we could also be looking at this as another possibility/potentiality
this bear doesnt look done yet folks.
Hi, so i have a very similar count, but instead of labeling it as an A-E I have it as a 1-5. The reason I did it this way was because I thought none of the triangle corrective patterns create lower highs as well as lower lows. Also because of that, I'm thinking that this whole move down so far was only wave A of an A-B-C. I'll include my chart so you can take a look, and if possible some feedback would be amazing.
NotGemini NotGemini
@NotGemini, Also based on the most recent update you put do you think that this might also be a Diagonal A wave ?
BigToke NotGemini
@NotGemini, i essentially have a 1 hour long setup to 8954 but also a daily short setup that does not get violated if the hourly long setup fulfills to target. I will likely be looking to short around 9000 if it gets there with a stop at 9200
BigToke NotGemini
@NotGemini, its very possible your count is correct, and that mine is wrong :) a b wave here would certainly be very evil of mr market to crush some hopes and dreams. as im sure you know wave 4's are notoriously difficult to count and trade and this one has been no exception, blowing bulls and bears up left and right. That being said its been many years since I have read my elliott wave books and do not recall if my current count is against the rules per-se but to me it just simply looked right.
@BigToke, no your count so far has been amazing thats partially why I really value your input, and like you said, having a b wave here would definitely be the most evil thing to do which is why im ready for it haha.
Again thanks for the feedback i aporeciate it.
BigToke NotGemini
@NotGemini, thanks! your count certainly makes the most sense if bitcoin can continue higher above my yellow 2 and start to violate mine. I do not think many are prepared for a continued bear market and are basically hoping for a bull to re emerge, but hope is not a wise investment strategy, and the evil-ness of a b wave would utterly crush all those hopes and dreams. Thank you for the chart. cheers! :)
I was following your chart very closely, but then i went like and idiot and bought eth, i really should've just staid with your chart.
BigToke anjeroga
@anjeroga, I believe long term ETH is a solid investment, as well as BTC. That being said timing the market is an incredibly difficult thing to do. I honestly would not recommend trading for the majority who are attempting to do so. As for myself I am buying fixed amounts of BTC/ETH/NEO/VEN on a quarterly basis, regardless of market condition, for the next decade.
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