Hey guys, Alright, so the "month long break" that I took sitting in fiat had me a bit rusty at reading the market. With no motivation for money to be made; I half-a'd any calls on drops, etc. I've made.
I however dusted myself off; and have begun to really focus in and study things again.
With that said; I think the crypto market took a really, really big correction hit and it is very likely we don't come out of this with some magical rebound to 20k. Here's a quick timeline:
1) We take another. sell-off crap dive to 5.6k'ish.. this should be the last of the capitulation aka the last bit of people hanging on for dear life. The last big of blinded by optimism hope these bulls have in their system.
2) We make a huge bounce back to 9k from 5.6k'ish bottom. Where we double-top 9k and start the dwindle down.
3) March is another month long of slaw'ness. A slow dwindle of slow red bleed back to a crazy low of 4k (possibly even more, who knows at the moment). March will have some moments of side ways movement which will allow some alts to attempt a run (which will be followed by an immediate 100% retracement lol)
4) Near the end of March; once we hit a pitiful super low we can't take anymore and depression has consumed the crypto world all the way. We make a reversal and a slow rise back up in April.. followed by some pumps here and there. Prepping us for a huge summer. =)
Now; I made one of my infamous breakout coin calls on XRP. I don't know exactly how this will fit into things. Although the market will go down; some alts can go up and stick it's price possibly, depending on news. XRP will be one that I will be watching VERY CLOSELY to see how it moves against the overall market movements.
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Either my timing and price were off on this bull trap. Or it's never going to happen. If it crosses 9.2k; it might really break.
Thank you for the research James. It's not the news I wanted to hear, but the truth hurts sometimes. It's much better than believing things have truly turned around and then getting slaughtered! Your analysis really is gold plated diamonds. I found you when I was trying to figure out the real reason for the drop in mid Jan. and if there were more to come. At first I followed your advice and got into fiat, but got impatient and greedy and paid a price for it. I've come to realize that your analysis deserves heavyweight respect and I have no doubt that you will reach your 25M goal.
dragon
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@madmongoose hey, thanks! I was terribly wrong in this prediction. I based this upon how alot of markets recover from a big, long bear. Unfortunately (and actually Fortunately really!) is that it broke up out of $8500 and broke this chart apart. I do forsee a big sell-off from when bag holders entered around the 10k "bottom" and are itchy to sell and get out. Just not sure how it pans out yet..
madmongoose
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@jamesfend, got your telegram early this morning and bought back in. I think we are set for upward movement any time now.
Levitikon
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I think this is a fair prediction of how things are going to turn out. I got a chart that forecasts how Bitcoin may move based on how the Dot-com bubble played out. Its pretty much in-line with your dates and targets. The more you read about recoveries the more it shows that long accumulations are necessary to reach and surpass all time highs.
dragon
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@Levitikon, very nice, and fully agree. Hopefully we're in a ball park with time scale being much more compact and we get a good summer!
madmongoose
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@Levitikon, that’s a great chart. I’ve been trying to understand the parallels between dotcom and crypto too. What I have not figured out yet is the primary indicator to judge the future health of crypto. During the dotcom bubble you could watch the Fed funds rate. Every time it was lowered the money flowed to dotcoms on the market – 1997 Asian crisis = lower funds rate, 1998 LTCM bailout and Russian default = lower funds rate. 1999 Y2K scare = lower funds rate. As soon as the Y2K scare was over in 2000 the Fed raised the funds rate and the dotcom bubble deflated. I don’t think the Fed funds rate has much effect on the crypto market because the Wall Street banks that get access to the Fed’s cheaper money are not yet heavily involved in Crypto yet. Have you figured out a key metric to watch for the overall Crypto market? Also, I was thinking (and hoping) that we are only in 1997 with the best times still ahead of us instead of post-crash slow growth 2001 already.
photinoman
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@Levitikon, At least BTC chart is 7 times faster than the NASDAQ!