YMI
Long

BTC Analysis For The Week Ahead

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Looking at the daily timeframe on BTC
We did consolidate above $4900 for the remained of the week after blasting through the $4200 prior resistance. With multiple failures to break lower this established $4900 as short term support for now. We did break through the weekly trend-line resistance (blue) as well.
My current bias is parallel to the total market cap, which is cautiously bullish , for the week ahead. As long as the $4900 support is held I believe we should see a continuation higher, upon a break of the $5340 minor resistance.
This would then send BTC into the $5650 topline resistance and potentially into the $6000 resistance region. To me this makes perfect sense taking a peak at the weekly timeframe , as the $6k level was the legendary support region which we never retested after breaking down in November. This region as well has an additional trend-line confluence with prior wick rejections, which gives me reason to believe we may see a volatile push up to this price before rejecting once again.
From an institutional perspective at $6k retail traders, media, and experts will be extremely bullish and calling for the end of the bear market with targets at $50k by next week.. All jokes aside this is were I will be the most cautious and vigilant for a possible reversal lower to crush all enthusiasm and hope from the bulls. The controllers of this market seek to cause the most psychological pain for us retail traders and move price in whatever direction in order to achieve exactly that. SO the contrarian in me will be anticipating this potential scenario to unfold.
However the counter argument and bearish scenario fir this week would come into play if the $4900 Pivot is lost. We could potentially see a stop hunt with a wick to retest the Blue trend-line, and get bought back up above $4900. However a strong break below would initially lead to the $4600 support region with the $4500 and $4200 support regions to follow with a deep retracement. From there I would be looking for potential long opportunities as this would be the test of old resistance new support from last weeks breakout.
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