Q: What has the highest probability of occurring?
In April through July Bitcoin lost over 50% of its value, a crash from its all time high of $64,879.80 per bitcoin.
There is 1 classic pattern that is validating today.
The bull pennant, has tested its pattern high at 50,500 respectively.
Using Bulkowski's knowledge on pennants he states, "They perform an invaluable service by marking the midway point in a move 30% of the time." so by this insight we can project a target.
This pattern projects 67,500 as the target.
Objectively looking at previous structure there are a lot of bearish classic patterns. A substantial number of these failed at the 30,000 support level.
Price has supported itself at 30,000 and in August captured the support level ~40,000.
50,000 is a significant whole number and marks the approximate entry point of both the double top and head and shoulders topping patterns in the first half of the year.
Since the pennant is not fully validated the current position is neutral with a bias in favour of the uptrend continuing.
N.B. the current daily ranges are in the lower half of the distribution of all ranges this year. This indicates low volatility.
The rate of change is also approaching 0. This indicates low momentum.
Low volatility and low momentum are prerequisites for high volatility and high momentum but are not predictors of direction.
In April through July Bitcoin lost over 50% of its value, a crash from its all time high of $64,879.80 per bitcoin.
There is 1 classic pattern that is validating today.
The bull pennant, has tested its pattern high at 50,500 respectively.
Using Bulkowski's knowledge on pennants he states, "They perform an invaluable service by marking the midway point in a move 30% of the time." so by this insight we can project a target.
This pattern projects 67,500 as the target.
Objectively looking at previous structure there are a lot of bearish classic patterns. A substantial number of these failed at the 30,000 support level.
Price has supported itself at 30,000 and in August captured the support level ~40,000.
50,000 is a significant whole number and marks the approximate entry point of both the double top and head and shoulders topping patterns in the first half of the year.
Since the pennant is not fully validated the current position is neutral with a bias in favour of the uptrend continuing.
N.B. the current daily ranges are in the lower half of the distribution of all ranges this year. This indicates low volatility.
The rate of change is also approaching 0. This indicates low momentum.
Low volatility and low momentum are prerequisites for high volatility and high momentum but are not predictors of direction.
Comment:
2nd September did not close above the breakout price ~49600.
Trade active:
3rd September closed above the breakout price ~49600
Long position is active.
Long position is active.
Trade closed manually:
False breakout of the bull flag and stop hit. Double top resistance at 50,500.