Puzzled about why Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) isn't getting much love, despite trading at half its usual price? 🤔
If you're new to the game, GBTC is an investment fund tethered to Bitcoin's price. It's a handy way for investors to tap into Bitcoin's potential without directly owning the cryptocurrency. 📊⛓
Here's where things get interesting. GBTC is currently on sale for half the price, yet it's like a wallflower at a dance – no one's rushing in for the bargain. 🤷🔍 It's a bit baffling because you'd assume investors would jump at the chance to buy into Bitcoin at such a reduced rate, right?
But here's a curious twist: a truly healthy Bitcoin bull market only revs up when GBTC trades at a higher rate than Bitcoin itself. The bigger the premium, the more vigorous the bull market is likely to be. 🐂💪
So, what's keeping investors from capitalizing on this discounted GBTC opportunity? It's a complex cocktail of factors - fluctuating market sentiment, investor wariness, regulatory uncertainties, and competition from Bitcoin ETFs. 🏛🌍🎢
If GBTC continues to lag, it could point to a continuation of the cool-off period for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. But hold on, this isn't necessarily a gloomy forecast. It could offer a chance for some consolidation, a pause for reflection, and perhaps a few strategy tweaks before the next tidal wave. 🌊🏄♀️
Intriguingly, the plot thickens. In my previous idea* "2023 is THE year to invest in Bitcoin - Benner Cycle," I said that 2023 might be the golden year for Bitcoin investment, based on the century-old Benner Cycle. 🗓👀 If this theory pans out, it's exciting news for us Bitcoin investors!
So, how do we interpret this GBTC riddle? It's all about the long term view. 🧐🔮 Keep a close watch on the market trends, practice patience, and stay on top of the latest developments. This could just be the calm before the 2023 storm, especially if the Benner Cycle forecasts prove accurate. 🎢🚀
If you want to create the chart for yourself to keep a close eye on what is happening, then use the symbol
BTCUSD/GBTC/1000
and look for the chart to decline, that should be a good sign for an early entry. (#NFA)
That wraps it up for now! Always remember, knowledge is your best ally in the crypto realm. Until our next crypto chat, happy trading! 💰🎉
Quick reminder: Always base your investment decisions on a careful evaluation of your financial circumstances and investment objectives. 🎯💼💡
Comment
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GBTC discount keeps getting smaller and is the lowest in a year ... which could point toward growing institutional interest in being involved in Bitcoin. 💡
That's funny. I was researching around and forgot about Benner and reread some of his stuff recently and the 2023 positive prediction caught my eye as well and made me rethink all my bearishness. The GBTC negative premium reduction we just had seems to point to a positive rest of the year indeed. Great post.
SpyMasterTrades
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Nice thoughts Nico!
In my charting, I've noticed that Bitcoin moves up exponentially relative to GBTC. We know for sure that this relationship is true because of the expense ratio of GBTC. I've also noticed a lognormal distribution of the ratio from its mean, as shown below.
As for the few likes on the post (as noted in your status) I don't think many people like GBTC in general. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is an irony since Bitcoin's entire success story is that it is the first truly trustless asset ever. To accumulate Bitcoin within a Trust and then sell shares of that Trust is something that would mostly appeal to those who do not fully understand Bitcoin or web3 de-fi protocols.
Love your posts, by the way, keep it up!
Nico.Muselle
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@spy_master, thanks for your comment. There is of course a correlation between BTC and GBTC, as GBTC is backed by BTC. The "man in the street" of course is not interested in GBTC, however for companies, institutions, pension funds etc, it should be an easy way to invest in Bitcoin without needing to take "ownership" of it. The fact that even at half price, there is very little interest in it from these potential buyers shows that we have a way to go before the actual bull market returns IMHO.