We have a clear picture being painted, down before we can go up. We need a capitulation in order to get back up. So just sit tight and wait for the right entry. Market is very depressed due to price action, buyers that are entering are quickly exiting positions causing the market price to decline. We will be breaking down the final support that we have and then its a free fall down to lower levels where we started this trend of around $5,000 area.
This area should have lots of support and buyers coming in. Best case scenario is that we bounce from the 5k level and start the next bull run that will get us up to the 15k levels by Q2 - Q3 We should experience a retest of the 7500ish area with a then massive bull run into Q4 to put us near the ATH.
Our worse case scenario is that we bounce from the 5k then fail a retest of the $8,500-10k area and come back down to the $3,000 level fail at the 5k and retest $1,800. This scenario is unlikely. I would say 18-23% likely hood.
This is not to be used as trading advice, just some friendly charting!
Why do you think 15k? -- that is extremely high -- after the tech bubble alot of stocks simply traded sideways for a long time before sharply rising.
whoisthelorax
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@ascorbic, a bullish scenario would need to pass the double top at a minimum
ascorbic
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@whoisthelorax, Right but who says it needs to be bullish? Why can't we bounce up at 5k go to 10k and just trade sideways between 6 and 10k for a while?
ascorbic
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Our last bounce only gots a 100% in value from the last decending wedge -- 5.5k to 11.7k
knotbad
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@ascorbic, Agreed, we need to pivot above 11700-12k. @TheCryptAlpha Great charting as always !! Thx
@ascorbic, We will see when we get there. So far i'm doing an outlook no more than 4 weeks ahead.
TheCryptAlpha
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@ascorbic, I'm just guessing it seems to be a good place after we break 12k to go to. Who knows maybe someone will find a cure for cancer through bitcoin and we sky rocket. Thats a joke of course but talking about what will happen so far down the line is just not something I can do right now. Its a guess...