Right before the death cross in 2018 happened, BTC touched the 200 daily MA, it bounced 50%, then went back down further.
Same thing happening today. BTC touched the 200 daily MA, it will bounce back to 8.6k-8.8k, then go right back down below the 200 daily MA somewhere $7.4K-$7.1k.
Maybe it's stupid as you said, but I believe it's going to follow the same path. What happened in 2011 and 2016 totally different. Today we have CME and BAKKT. They are not here to help BTC. They're here to take money from people.
This way, you'll make the bias go away ;)
BTC always lose 30-40% of its value during first bulltrend correction. The maximum bear target is 8k here, with a VERY STRONG support.
VPVR can show you volumes were huge at the 8k level. 10k level is the second biggest volumes support after 8k.
Get your basics straight