If you are reading this, then you are still in the market! I’m happy for you. Because this has been a test of patience and your mental strength over the last 10 months. That’s for sure! This market has been an absolute blood bath for along time. And it’s when blood is everywhere, that the strong hands and smart money are gobbling it up! Trust me, I’m right there with them! I have been buying every deep dip we get!
I have recognized a few interesting things on our beloved Bitcoin chart that I am ready to let you guys in on.
As you can see, we have held above the 2013 trend this entire time! A break of $6,200 at this point would call for an incredible bear market that would likely last for a VERY long time. But, as long as we are above it. All is well!
Also, you can see we have been residing within a pitchfork this entire time and resting on top of the 2013 trend line.
Over the last several months I’ve attempted to create pitchforks on nearly all the coins in this market. None of them come out perfectly. But the thing that really strikes me about the validity to this pitchfork is that we can see Bitcoin behaved within parallel channels within the pitchfork during this entire bear market. I have included many black lines that are parallel to the pitchfork, and you can see how many times those parallel channels behaved as support and resistance.
Well, guess what? We have finally reached the bottom of the pitchfork! (Watching this thing for five months has tested my patience, INCREDIBLY!)
So, we have two things going on here. We are at the bottom of the pitchfork, and we are resting on the top of the 2013 trend line. There are two scenarios that can play out here. 1. We break $6,200 and it’s a long painful future for Bitcoin. This would not only break the pitchfork but break the 2013 support as well. I would not want to be in Bitcoin if it breaks below $6,000. 2. We hold $6,200, stay in the channel, and our bull market begins TODAY heading to $9,000! If we are to expect a 4.236 extension of our current cycle, as we have done with nearly all coins, then the target for Bitcoin would be $64,000 during the mega next bull run. If we are going to stay within this pitchfork the entire time, we can expect that target to occur around August 2019.
As always, this is just my analysis. Any decisions you make based on my analysis and opinions are still your own decisions, and your own responsibility. So, if you decide to trade based on this analysis, just know, you are your own financial advisor and decision maker. Not me ;)
Good luck to you all! May you have a wonderful day! Please like, comment, and follow! :)
Comment
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Bitcoin is a pretty tough read right now. We are out of the pitchfork, back tested, and floating around out here.
My opinion is that a break of that $6050 pink line would be pretty dangerous. As long as we are above it, things are okay.
I found your analysis curious, in part because it is an outlier due to the fact that you use a regular scale. IMO for (especially long-term) TA on Bitcoin to make any kind of sense - and produce trendlines that the it's properly respectful of, the TA needs to be done on log scale chart. On a side note, the 2nd point your 2013 trendline is anchored to seems rather arbitrary to me. On a log chart, the picture there is not so gloomy - because let's face it - any bull run that kicks off right here right now will probably end in about a two weeks to a month with a bulltrap (There are soooo many resistances overhead, with an army of bagholders eager to unload at every single one).
Log supports dating back to mid 2012 and early 2013 (in magenta) leave room for it to breakdown right now; it could dip as low as 4450 without breaking log support. The trendline which is drawn by connecting the low of April 12th 2013 with the low of August 25th 2015 (orange) - IMO this is the one that "if broken this kills the bitcoin" is all the way down at 1400 right now. The upper yellow line, anchored to the low of August 25th 2015 (day 0 of the last bull market), and the low August 1st 2016 is all the way down at 3600 - I believe that one may be a likely target for this correction to end. The 2nd yellow line also dates back to 2015-2016, but one of the lows it anchors to is in between the two I already mentioned.
tradingview.com/chart/WTbUO6z8/ is the chart where I have these all drawn, if you want to look more closely at where my trendlines are anchored. Just pull up Bitstamp BTCUSD when it loads.
SecludedJ
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@ashaman, Log does have it's uses. I'm sure if the massive amount of shorts piling in saw this, they might not be shorting so aggressively...
sankarmail
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What is bitcoin's target? You gave target for all other coins.
sankarmail
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So can we expect a bull run now?
Oto_
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Hope that pinky holds.
reverie153
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Hi, bro. Bitcoin is out of pitchfork Doesn't matter?
reverie153
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How much do you think it would be better to buy? I want to buy
SecludedJ
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@reverie153, Well, I am not an investment adviser. So, any decisions you make are your responsibility. But, for me, buying anytime right now is fine. With a stop loss at $6350. And a target of $8800. That's my plan. You are going to have to do what suits you and be willing to get stopped out and take a loss at $6350 if it happens.
As for "how much", that's entirely up to you as well. I have no clue of how much money you have or your financial situation. So, do what makes you feel comfortable.
Do you think it's a downward trend if you go below 6350?
SecludedJ
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@reverie153, Below $6350 breaks the pitchfork, making this idea invalidated. I would tend to believe we go into a longer term bear market if that did happen.
Log supports dating back to mid 2012 and early 2013 (in magenta) leave room for it to breakdown right now; it could dip as low as 4450 without breaking log support. The trendline which is drawn by connecting the low of April 12th 2013 with the low of August 25th 2015 (orange) - IMO this is the one that "if broken this kills the bitcoin" is all the way down at 1400 right now. The upper yellow line, anchored to the low of August 25th 2015 (day 0 of the last bull market), and the low August 1st 2016 is all the way down at 3600 - I believe that one may be a likely target for this correction to end. The 2nd yellow line also dates back to 2015-2016, but one of the lows it anchors to is in between the two I already mentioned.
tradingview.com/chart/WTbUO6z8/ is the chart where I have these all drawn, if you want to look more closely at where my trendlines are anchored. Just pull up Bitstamp BTCUSD when it loads.