I've written a bit about the bottoming process in assets, specifically how Bitcoin is bottoming and what that should look like over time. 2018 has been a dramatically different environment for the crypto space than 2017 was, obviously. There was manic euphoria and when those types of parabolic moves exist, the eventual hangover is long and drawn out with false hopes, and dreary grinds lower.
After the violent bottom spikes from February, each consecutive bounce was less violent, less aggressive and began to morph into a different kind of market. February's bounce looked a lot like the bounces in 2017, but the subsequent bounces we got in April and June looked and acted a lot different. As if the selling just got exhausted and casually started going higher, no sense of urgency, no fear that one would miss the move.
Eventually we started to move back into a more bullish camp, represented by the bullish divergence on 3 Day MACD. This to me was the clue that the lows might not be completely in yet, but that buyers have taken over.
My mildly bullish trade narrative is that we bottomed at 5755 in June and with the bullish MACD divergence are starting to go more sideways with an upward tilt. Reminiscent of the NASDAQ's bottom in 2002/2003. My view is that we move upward in a much more subdued and relaxed pace up to regain 20,000 again in the Fall of 2019.
For the crypto tourists that is far too long away, but for those who are here for returns that is nearly a 3x return in a little over 12 months. This is the sort of move that can absorb bigger money and create generational wealth.
On to business....
Primary Count puts us at Wave 2 bottoming at the 61.8% retracement levels from July lows. If that is indeed the count then we should expect 10,000 up next as our Wave 3 target at 161.8% projection. That's very optimistic!
Alternate Count has waves 1,2,3,4 already in place and wave 5 is up next which would have us topping out again around the 9k level.
In either case we seem to be shaping up for another leg higher.
I'm long from 6400 and added Saturday around these 7100 levels
After the violent bottom spikes from February, each consecutive bounce was less violent, less aggressive and began to morph into a different kind of market. February's bounce looked a lot like the bounces in 2017, but the subsequent bounces we got in April and June looked and acted a lot different. As if the selling just got exhausted and casually started going higher, no sense of urgency, no fear that one would miss the move.
Eventually we started to move back into a more bullish camp, represented by the bullish divergence on 3 Day MACD. This to me was the clue that the lows might not be completely in yet, but that buyers have taken over.
My mildly bullish trade narrative is that we bottomed at 5755 in June and with the bullish MACD divergence are starting to go more sideways with an upward tilt. Reminiscent of the NASDAQ's bottom in 2002/2003. My view is that we move upward in a much more subdued and relaxed pace up to regain 20,000 again in the Fall of 2019.
For the crypto tourists that is far too long away, but for those who are here for returns that is nearly a 3x return in a little over 12 months. This is the sort of move that can absorb bigger money and create generational wealth.
On to business....
Primary Count puts us at Wave 2 bottoming at the 61.8% retracement levels from July lows. If that is indeed the count then we should expect 10,000 up next as our Wave 3 target at 161.8% projection. That's very optimistic!
Alternate Count has waves 1,2,3,4 already in place and wave 5 is up next which would have us topping out again around the 9k level.
In either case we seem to be shaping up for another leg higher.
I'm long from 6400 and added Saturday around these 7100 levels
I write a newsletter about edges in financial markets…and life. Traders responsible for 9+ figures in daily transactions read it and you should too. Former USMC. www.pollinatetrading.com