Pain is just starting.
The US treasury bonds are decreasing as the debt to GDP ratio is going through quantitative cumulative tightening resulting in increased pressure on subscription prices and falling demand for butter cookies and other commodities. This will only worsen as the BOJ (Bank of Japan) is issuing rate hikes at a pace of 75 bipperinos per hike, eventually leading to a bottleneck in its economical orbit. This could lead to two scenarios : recessional (unilateral) crash or hyperdeflationary catalytic sme-GMA event as seen in 1945. As of now, any long is destined to be a losing trade. The probability of a bottom across US equities is low as they're indirectly correlated to the rate of growth in Brazilian government subsidized index KRVM4GA, which has been seeing major bearish divergences as the ambassador of Peru declared Brazil to be debt-solvent, meaning that its portfolio of foreign asset is absorbing damage at unsustainable pace, with no sign of improvement until FY2036. Furthermore, FAANG companies are set to launch a global campaign in support of Ukrainians, which puts pressure on Kremlin forces currently controlling the black sea canal ; all of this could lead to a shortage in wheat and forced selling on the BVT-PLU5 index, possibly impacting the life of millions of Europeans, thus directly decreasing their income and risk appetite when it comes to volatile assets like BTC.
Overall, this puts global macro conditions in a dangerous spot as they are set to worsen by EOY, possibly reaching a doomsday-level bankrun scenario.
For those reasons, I will be looking for shorts (and shorts only) until we hit the 3k area (possibly marking the bottom for this cycle).
The US treasury bonds are decreasing as the debt to GDP ratio is going through quantitative cumulative tightening resulting in increased pressure on subscription prices and falling demand for butter cookies and other commodities. This will only worsen as the BOJ (Bank of Japan) is issuing rate hikes at a pace of 75 bipperinos per hike, eventually leading to a bottleneck in its economical orbit. This could lead to two scenarios : recessional (unilateral) crash or hyperdeflationary catalytic sme-GMA event as seen in 1945. As of now, any long is destined to be a losing trade. The probability of a bottom across US equities is low as they're indirectly correlated to the rate of growth in Brazilian government subsidized index KRVM4GA, which has been seeing major bearish divergences as the ambassador of Peru declared Brazil to be debt-solvent, meaning that its portfolio of foreign asset is absorbing damage at unsustainable pace, with no sign of improvement until FY2036. Furthermore, FAANG companies are set to launch a global campaign in support of Ukrainians, which puts pressure on Kremlin forces currently controlling the black sea canal ; all of this could lead to a shortage in wheat and forced selling on the BVT-PLU5 index, possibly impacting the life of millions of Europeans, thus directly decreasing their income and risk appetite when it comes to volatile assets like BTC.
Overall, this puts global macro conditions in a dangerous spot as they are set to worsen by EOY, possibly reaching a doomsday-level bankrun scenario.
For those reasons, I will be looking for shorts (and shorts only) until we hit the 3k area (possibly marking the bottom for this cycle).