So what are the scenarios now? Well if the price is rejected below the Lower High or at least below the 1D MA200 (orange line), then I expect a swing back to at least 6,800 for potentially a final bottom and test of the Parabolic Growth Support (bold black line), before the recovery gets more sustainable towards the May Halving and throughout the whole 2020.
So if the price is rejected on the points I mentioned above, traders should wait for confirmation on the LMACD indicator by a crossover, which has been very reliable in determining sell and buy entries within this Channel, as seen on a previous idea of mine below:
Technically the current operating range of the LMACD on the 1D chart is -0.07 to 0.03.
Another indicator suggesting a possible top is the which on the 1D chart has also entered a 6 month Sell Zone. See on the chart how similar it is to the September/ October 2019 Lower Low-to-Lower High sequence, both were on a before spiking aggressively into the .
*December 2018 bottom -VS- December 2019 bottom*
About a month ago I compared the December 2018 to December 2019 claiming that the 2 bottom sequences could be similar, one for the 2018 Bear Cycle and the other for the June 2019 correction:
This can still be the case, despite the fact that the current 2019 correction just broke the 0.618 Fibonacci. The similarity is that the current rebound from the bottom is close to +35% same as the December 2018 rebound.
Do you think that there is one last pull back left for Bitcoin before a sustainable uptrend? Let me know in the comments section!
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P.S. Where "sustainable uptrend" in 2020 I refer to a scenario like the one below:
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