Bearish Divergences Multiply Against BTC - Sitrep 2019-08-09
Hey guys! I hope you are having a good end of your week and make some good decisions and trading positions this weekend.
I took a break from TV charting for a bit to refocus on the fundamentals. Now, I am back to swing trade based on the indicators I see in front of me! So, let's get to it!
Many traders, gurus, and analysts are trying to figure out which way this marketing is going! Make sure your trading strategies are following evidence! Your evidence! Not someone else's! Everyone can draw lines on the charts - few can predict the possibilities. No one could know exactly what will happen next week. It is magic dust and speculation if they say they do! We can only get glimpses of what is happening now by analyzing indicators across multiple time frames. I like to use 4 and 6 hour indicators for analyzing market direction with 15 minute, 45 minute, and 1 hour indicators to determine entry and exit points.
The 6 hour time frame:
We are currently pushing against resistance and waiting for the next major move. We are 47 bars into this current wave up and RSI and STOCH are trending bearishly as of 8/9/2019. Personally, I am looking for a short here with a stop above $12,200. Trade smartly, use your stops, and take profits where you can!
Now, all we can do is layer in, set stops, watch indicators, and calculate probabilities.
Key Points:
Supports:
- Minimal near $9,200
- Moderate near $8,300
- Major near $5,100.
Golden Pocket .65 fib extension is near $7,400
Major Trend Line from 2018 top is near $12,600
Happy trading!
I am a simple market analyst - not a financial analyst
fortis Fortuna adiuvat - fortune favors the brave
I took a break from TV charting for a bit to refocus on the fundamentals. Now, I am back to swing trade based on the indicators I see in front of me! So, let's get to it!
Many traders, gurus, and analysts are trying to figure out which way this marketing is going! Make sure your trading strategies are following evidence! Your evidence! Not someone else's! Everyone can draw lines on the charts - few can predict the possibilities. No one could know exactly what will happen next week. It is magic dust and speculation if they say they do! We can only get glimpses of what is happening now by analyzing indicators across multiple time frames. I like to use 4 and 6 hour indicators for analyzing market direction with 15 minute, 45 minute, and 1 hour indicators to determine entry and exit points.
The 6 hour time frame:
We are currently pushing against resistance and waiting for the next major move. We are 47 bars into this current wave up and RSI and STOCH are trending bearishly as of 8/9/2019. Personally, I am looking for a short here with a stop above $12,200. Trade smartly, use your stops, and take profits where you can!
Now, all we can do is layer in, set stops, watch indicators, and calculate probabilities.
Key Points:
Supports:
- Minimal near $9,200
- Moderate near $8,300
- Major near $5,100.
Golden Pocket .65 fib extension is near $7,400
Major Trend Line from 2018 top is near $12,600
Happy trading!
I am a simple market analyst - not a financial analyst
fortis Fortuna adiuvat - fortune favors the brave
Comment:
Our stop is there in case this turns out to be an ascending bullish triangle. However, this formation has to happen soon to be validated!
Comment:
We have movement! The markets dropped to 11.3k yesterday with an overnight low of 11.1k.
On the 6 hour time frame, we are saw a wick through the 55 EMA and now the others (8, 12, and 21 EMAs) are acting as overhead resistance. RSI is still bearish, but STOCH is at a bottom. We may see a small bounce or sideways movements until the STOCH equalizes and we have room for another movement.
Position up: 4.5%!
Our actions: Move stop losses down to break even near 11.9k to protect our base capital.
On the 6 hour time frame, we are saw a wick through the 55 EMA and now the others (8, 12, and 21 EMAs) are acting as overhead resistance. RSI is still bearish, but STOCH is at a bottom. We may see a small bounce or sideways movements until the STOCH equalizes and we have room for another movement.
Position up: 4.5%!
Our actions: Move stop losses down to break even near 11.9k to protect our base capital.
Comment:
EMA Situation:
Layout:
1 hour, 2 hour
3 hour, 4 hour
Layout:
1 hour, 2 hour
3 hour, 4 hour
Comment:
Still going down! Congrats to everyone who is still in this trade with me. We are now up around 9% overall on this idea!
Sitrep:
4 hour EMAs could be crossing down soon! This would be a great sign that we are on track for divergence to lower price levels. We are also testing the 12 hour 55 EMA as seen in the screenshot below. We could potentially see a bounce here since this can be a stronger support and the 12 hour STOCH is also at a low (see second screenshot). If no bounce occurs, I expect to see more sideways movement and a downtrend continuation.
Moves For Us:
Patience is key with it comes to major trends. Yes, our main goal is to secure profits, but we also do not want to fold our cards early and leave profits on the table. We will want to look for indicators which will show that the downtrend is ending before we close our short positions.
Sitrep:
4 hour EMAs could be crossing down soon! This would be a great sign that we are on track for divergence to lower price levels. We are also testing the 12 hour 55 EMA as seen in the screenshot below. We could potentially see a bounce here since this can be a stronger support and the 12 hour STOCH is also at a low (see second screenshot). If no bounce occurs, I expect to see more sideways movement and a downtrend continuation.
Moves For Us:
Patience is key with it comes to major trends. Yes, our main goal is to secure profits, but we also do not want to fold our cards early and leave profits on the table. We will want to look for indicators which will show that the downtrend is ending before we close our short positions.
Comment:
This actually happening guys! Over 18% up now and in the $9.6ks! Anyone shorting with > 5x leverage just made bank! CONGRATS! Watch and wait to see if we get any bounce indicators on a longer-term time frame.
Comment:
Comment:
Update 08-17-2019:
We need to see some volume here for the next movement. I am still following the major trend until the market proves otherwise. That trend is down!
Just in case the trend flips on us, I moved my stop to around $10.65k above the recent candle wicks. That way, we can secure profits if we see a large volume spike up. Other than that, I am just waiting to see what happens. I am guessing more sideways movement for another day or so.
Action:
Move stop-loss to near $10.65k - if the market goes down, we win with more % profits. If the market goes up, we win by securing profits and looking for our next position.
6 Hour Indicators:
MACD - Histogram is trending positively. However, we have no volume yet. I am waiting for volume to come into the market.
RSI - Oversold and rebounded. I am looking for a higher lower with lower price action here.
STOCH - Trending up. I am waiting to see if this sideways movement allows price action to stabilize and lead to another wave down.
EMAs - We have rejection by the 21 EMA (orange line). If the market is going to go up, we need enough volume to break through that resistance.
Now we wait patiently.
We need to see some volume here for the next movement. I am still following the major trend until the market proves otherwise. That trend is down!
Just in case the trend flips on us, I moved my stop to around $10.65k above the recent candle wicks. That way, we can secure profits if we see a large volume spike up. Other than that, I am just waiting to see what happens. I am guessing more sideways movement for another day or so.
Action:
Move stop-loss to near $10.65k - if the market goes down, we win with more % profits. If the market goes up, we win by securing profits and looking for our next position.
6 Hour Indicators:
MACD - Histogram is trending positively. However, we have no volume yet. I am waiting for volume to come into the market.
RSI - Oversold and rebounded. I am looking for a higher lower with lower price action here.
STOCH - Trending up. I am waiting to see if this sideways movement allows price action to stabilize and lead to another wave down.
EMAs - We have rejection by the 21 EMA (orange line). If the market is going to go up, we need enough volume to break through that resistance.
Now we wait patiently.
Comment:
Comment:
Volume Starting To Come In This Hour! (1 hour chart)
Trade closed: stop reached:
Trade is closed. The stop was triggered and we walked with 10% profit. Happy trading everyone. Waiting for the next position setup.
