Bitcoins sideways action has ended finally! Big trouble though!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The triangles keep getting bigger and we keep changing the lines because the market still has not decided which way it wants to go. Which still remains very strange because the volume is still very low. Normally low volume around lows means the price will drop even more, but why are we not dropping? The spreads between the exchanges has been increasing even more to levels of 80/100 points the past 2 days or so. I still see allot of accumulation on Bitmex, just as i mentioned yesterday as well. Just minutes ago there were some very big dumping on Bitmex, market sell orders of 5 to 7 million even. But no follow through yet though. Open intrest on Bitmex has been increasing allot the past days, this tells us a move is probably coming. If you remember from a week ago where i talked about the same. The open intrest was increasing as well and i said the whales were planning a move. The direction is still not clear though, this low volume and sideways action makes it very difficult to to judge which way the price will go.

All we have to go on is this triangle at the right and those 2 small support and resistance lines. The more important levels we want to see break are the big red and green zone. The rising open intrest on Bitmex might help us break one of these 2 levels.

We still have a formation of higher lows which is a bullish sign, but the low volume and slow sideways movement have more weight and tell the bears have the upper hand. A week ago i still gave the bulls a very reasonable chance for succeeding, but the longer this takes favors the bears. Alts are taking some hits now as well and some of the bigger ones just looking bad as we speak. Like BCH has made quite the dump just now and broke an important support level . In the end it's Bitcoin making the decisions here and the important support level around 6400ish is still holding.

I just hope this nightmare will end soon and we see a breakout of this sideways range.

I started writing this while we were stil above 6600 on Bitfinex. Seems the open intrest game has been carried out already because it went up 30 mil within half an hour and with this drop it has dropped 70 mil already within a few minutes. Bitmex exchange is going paranoid as we speak. Difference between Mex and Finex has become 200 points at the moment. Binance is even 250 points and Huobi even 300 points. I don't know what to make of this since this all very new and as the rumors have been going on lately, it might have something to do with Tether. Some say it's all nonsense and nothing is wrong while others say there is something ad going on lately. Well we broke the triangle now and the target is around 6000 now for this small triangle. As we can see, that trend line showing the higher lows on the daily is in big trouble as well now. Unless we see a move up the coming hours (which seems to be unlikely) we have to assume this trend is over and we will see more drops the coming period. For me the higher lows pattern was important, meaning the 6400/6300 the past days. This one broke on some exchanges but still not on Bitfinex though. Since we see allot of fake moves in Bitcoin , we can say that when this daily closes below the 6300/6200 on Bitfinex, that the uptrend of higher lows is over.

At the moment Bitfinex seems to be making a small bear flag of this drop , indicating we can see another wave down very quickly. Unless the bulls can push it back above the 6400/450 quickly, the chances become very big that we will see allot of bearish price action the coming period. Maybe even that big V shape low i was waiting for until 2 few months ago but assumed it would not happen anymore because of the higher lows pattern we have seen the past 2 months. At least we have some volatility again, now we have to hope we keep this volatility .

So the only hope for the bulls is, that this move is a big bull shake out before a move up, something i mentioned a week ago, but i not to the 6100 level some exchanges showed though. This would mean 2 things, a quick move up again or a Bart move after hours of sideways action. But so far, we have to assume this is an impulse move down and we should see another wave sooner or later.

Comment: Still looking bad and looks like a bear flag indicating we might even see another drop very quickly towards 6000ish. Unless bulls on finex can push it above 6400, than they might shake off the speed and panic of this drop. The 6200ish won't be a very easy one to break, since the bearish exchanges were not able able to drag them down with them when they were more than 200 points lower. So there are some buyers there supporting the price.

Comment: So the flag seems to have turned in to a triangle, all exchanges seems to have a slightly different shape, but chances for another drop are quite big. Only think that can stop the bears is a 100 point ish drop and a quick move up again inside the triangle

Comment: Still i fight going on between the bullish exchanges and the bearish ones. The bullish only dropped like 60 points while the others 100+ points. While making that break of the bear flag to drop even more, they are pushing it upwards now just as i described here above. If they can push it above the 6400/6450 on finex, than things can cool down again. Still with the bears on the upper hand though!
Comment: Seems the market does not want to drop just yet. Broke the triangle and a quick move up again, creating a small bear trap. If the bulls can close the 6h candle on the left above previous close, they create a small buy signal, which in theory could bring the price back to the neutral zone above 6450. But anything below 6450/6500 is just a retest of that triangle and therefore things still remain bearish on the higher time frame, which has the most weight. If they can't keep it above 6300/6270 at finex before the candle closes, very big chance we will see the price drop again in the next candle.

Comment: Still no bounce which shows the market has no intention to go up. Each time that it looks like the price will slip away it gets a quick push upwards. Since the push that i showed in the previous update did not get above the 6350ish, tells me it's more likely that it was not buying power with the intention to push the price higher, but more like buying support preventing the price to drop, to give more time to redistribute around these prices. So everything is in favor of the bears at the moment.

I do however think it won't be given away that easy to bears, so i still expect some kind of shake out to happen before we drop even more the coming days. It's just an assumption, very difficult to predict, just something we have seen happen allot of times this year.

Comment: Could see allot of selling yesterday around the low but there was allot of buying support as well, which gave us the move like the blue line i posted. But, the move up i normally expect is much quicker than the current one. Even though it still looks like it can make one more move up. So we might see another move up to test the red resistance before making another drop again. Unless the bulls can push it above the 6450ish, than things get more neutral again.

Comment: Possible Bart move again? Shows some similarities, with those quick pushes up from the lows
Comment: Should have this one
Comment: Open intrest on Bitmex is again around 780/790 level, past 2 times we saw a 250/400 point move happening. Even though it's dropping now it can still be both ways. Just a heads up, not to say which way it will go
Comment: On the right we see it has turned into a bigger flag at the moment, still moving inside of it. So far it is moving EXACTLY as my exact blue line, so allot of exactness there ;) Sorry just had to say it, need some humor in the current market.

Back to business, it looked like we would make a drop just now but the price is still holding though. For a good bear flag on the low time frame, we already bounced up too much, but when price stays below 6360/70 we could still form a lower high and make that drop anyway. But based on the rising OI on Mex, as mentioned in the previous analysis, there is most probably a move coming. While we are seeing a bounce up here after some attempts from the bears, there is a chance we are moving up from here. Doesn't mean the low is set, just to shake out some bears, because that's what the market loves to do, shake outs. Bulls need to get above the 6450ish on finex to invalidate the bear flag. On the left we see we got a good support and resistance level for the low time frames now

Comment: This makes things much harder to predict what will happen next. Here we can see how the Tether exchanges move through a certain resistance while the other don't. It's best to follow the "bearish"exchanges, since they don't have the influence of Tether.

Looks like a small inverse H&S in the making, if they can break the 6210/20 we could see a bull run towards 6270/80 :)

Comment: WTF just happened, just woke up because of all the private messages from my members, like a fire alarm waking up the whole city.

What i know so far, Tether has been the cause of this. At some exchanges even dropping to almost 0.5 and average to 0.75 and now back to around 0.94.

Open shorts on finex dropped big, almost 10K but longs ALSO dropped some as well, but could have been because buy orders bought in to these sell orders. In other words, it was no dumping but their orders got filled (at high prices probably), but don't know because i did not see it happening myself.

The gap between tether exchanges and usd exchanges is getting smaller, which is a GOOD sign. Looks like a bottom is set on Mex aorund 6400/6450 (which is a good pullback again). But with the Tether things i just don't know what to make of all this. So many rumors going around at the moment, all saying different things.
Order book on bitmex is quite low at the moment, tells me allot of big traders are not trading this.

Bitfinex we are still above the 6800, but lets be real, a drop this big after a rally it made, that's not a good sign as well. But prices are inflated there and other tether exchanges because of the Tether problems.

Comment: that small inverse H&S did play out perfectly though. assuming at least someone knew what was going on with Tether, they already knew it while making the H&S, no doubt about that!!!!!!!!
Comment: This is the April fractal i made almost 3 weeks ago but did not want to post it upfront because of certain reasons. But of course with all the Tether issues going on at the moment, how much value does it really have?

Comment: I know that of course many think why did the market move up if there is so much uncertainty about tether in the market, that doesn’t make sense. Well it clearly doesn’t!!

Only thing I can think of is, the rally was purely caused by a big short squeeze on bitfinex! Since shorts dropped 10.000 bitcoin, which might be enough to trigger stops, in other words a short squeeze. But still need to look at some facts like volume etc.
Comment: Seems like a small H&S is being made, but the Tether exchanges and the others move differently, so it's dificult to say which one we should follow. I think it's best to follow the bearish exchanges from now on, because they don't have direct influence from Tether price change.

If that green support holds, we might see a counter move up

Comment: Looks like the H&S is failing, so we could see a move towards the 6500/6550. What the step after that will be, can't say yet. Nowadays a 50/100 point move is huge already. If it drops below the 6430/20 than it will fail and we should see a retest of the 6370 again.

Comment: Seeing different pictures here, might as well flip a coin. Until the Tether issues get resolved and it's price gets stable again, it's mostly just gambling IMO.

Comment: I am writing an update now, but at least wanted to show the danger of a possible wedge. It's very ugly and the position is also very strange, because it's in the middle of a big move, but could still be a wedge though.

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next bull run?
I switchedto using ($6445) instead of ($6768)
It's getting crazier and crazier, BITFINEX is off by 0,4% in the meantime - and that's a lot.
TradingView automatic technical analysis tool says SELL Bitcoin on COINBASE and BUY Bitcoin on BITFINEX at the same time...
ReallyMe ReallyMe
@ReallyMe, typo: I meant "off by 5% - and that's a lot"

-Formation of top higher than the previous.
-Disruption the Triangle.
-RSI + Stoch above 50%.
-MACD Crossing.
-Increase of volume.
Posted this elsewhere but I thought it might be useful for others who only come here as it's not obvious info:

Did some math just now. Just realized that the price on Bitfinex didn't even go above $6600 at any point yesterday if you convert the price to real dollars by multiplying the Tether price at the time. So there isn't a breakout as yet. Right now the price of BTC on Bitfinex is around $6430 ($6700 x .096) , similar to real USD exchanges.

Tether is no longer 1:1 vs the USD so you can't use it for TA unless you convert to the true Dollar price. So using Bitfinex BTC charts for TA will only mislead as the exchange rate of Tether vs USD has changed over time. I've switched to charting with Bitstamp which is real USD.
+2 Reply
@BTC_SA, Thanks for sharing, it has made things very difficult lately, the Tether. Does make sense to only use the USD exchanges from now on
Agree that we might be headed towards 6500 area, though might take longer than originally expected. Thought BTC would first retrace higher then drop.

Also, I’ve updated my BTCUSD Black Swan analysis (see profile for link) with comparison of late 2013/2014 fractal and BTCUSD late 2017/Today. See below. Main differences of patterns are consistent with my Black Swan analysis. Dampened 2018 retrace is truncated Bull market (fifth) and dampened 2018 dip is truncated Bear market (of Wave C).

After the Tether issue yesterday I've switched from Bitfinex to Bitstamp to monitor what's going on with BTC. Bitfinex is way out of sync with the other exchanges now and not much can be read from the price movements there.

The movements on Bitfinex are also no longer mirrored clearly on other exchanges. Yesterday Bitfinex was moving in a $300 range after the initlal pump. Bitstamp only traded in a $100 range after the pump and hardly moved when Bitfinex dropped $200 to $6666 yesterday.
Isnt tedher 1$ now? Messy Things should calm down
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