All we have to go on is this triangle at the right and those 2 small lines. The more important levels we want to see break are the big red and green zone. The rising open intrest on Bitmex might help us break one of these 2 levels.
We still have a formation of higher lows which is a sign, but the low and slow sideways movement have more weight and tell the bears have the upper hand. A week ago i still gave the bulls a very reasonable chance for succeeding, but the longer this takes favors the bears. Alts are taking some hits now as well and some of the bigger ones just looking bad as we speak. Like BCH has made quite the dump just now and broke an important . In the end it's Bitcoin making the decisions here and the important around 6400ish is still holding.
I just hope this nightmare will end soon and we see a breakout of this sideways range.
I started writing this while we were above 6600 on Bitfinex. Seems the open intrest game has been carried out already because it went up 30 mil within half an hour and with this drop it has dropped 70 mil already within a few minutes. Bitmex exchange is going paranoid as we speak. Difference between Mex and Finex has become 200 points at the moment. Binance is even 250 points and Huobi even 300 points. I don't know what to make of this since this all very new and as the rumors have been going on lately, it might have something to do with Tether. Some say it's all nonsense and nothing is wrong while others say there is something ad going on lately. Well we broke the triangle now and the target is around 6000 now for this small triangle. As we can see, that showing the higher lows on the daily is in big trouble as well now. Unless we see a move up the coming hours (which seems to be unlikely) we have to assume this trend is over and we will see more drops the coming period. For me the higher lows pattern was important, meaning the 6400/6300 the past days. This one broke on some exchanges but still not on Bitfinex though. Since we see allot of fake moves in Bitcoin , we can say that when this daily closes below the 6300/6200 on Bitfinex, that the uptrend of higher lows is over.
At the moment Bitfinex seems to be making a small of this drop , indicating we can see another wave down very quickly. Unless the bulls can push it back above the 6400/450 quickly, the chances become very big that we will see allot of price action the coming period. Maybe even that big V shape low i was waiting for until 2 few months ago but assumed it would not happen anymore because of the higher lows pattern we have seen the past 2 months. At least we have some again, now we have to hope we keep this .
So the only hope for the bulls is, that this move is a big bull shake out before a move up, something i mentioned a week ago, but i not to the 6100 level some exchanges showed though. This would mean 2 things, a quick move up again or a Bart move after hours of sideways action. But so far, we have to assume this is an impulse move down and we should see another wave sooner or later.
I do however think it won't be given away that easy to bears, so i still expect some kind of shake out to happen before we drop even more the coming days. It's just an assumption, very difficult to predict, just something we have seen happen allot of times this year.
Back to business, it looked like we would make a drop just now but the price is still holding though. For a good bear flag on the low time frame, we already bounced up too much, but when price stays below 6360/70 we could still form a lower high and make that drop anyway. But based on the rising OI on Mex, as mentioned in the previous analysis, there is most probably a move coming. While we are seeing a bounce up here after some attempts from the bears, there is a chance we are moving up from here. Doesn't mean the low is set, just to shake out some bears, because that's what the market loves to do, shake outs. Bulls need to get above the 6450ish on finex to invalidate the bear flag. On the left we see we got a good support and resistance level for the low time frames now
Looks like a small inverse H&S in the making, if they can break the 6210/20 we could see a bull run towards 6270/80 :)
What i know so far, Tether has been the cause of this. At some exchanges even dropping to almost 0.5 and average to 0.75 and now back to around 0.94.
Open shorts on finex dropped big, almost 10K but longs ALSO dropped some as well, but could have been because buy orders bought in to these sell orders. In other words, it was no dumping but their orders got filled (at high prices probably), but don't know because i did not see it happening myself.
The gap between tether exchanges and usd exchanges is getting smaller, which is a GOOD sign. Looks like a bottom is set on Mex aorund 6400/6450 (which is a good pullback again). But with the Tether things i just don't know what to make of all this. So many rumors going around at the moment, all saying different things.
Order book on bitmex is quite low at the moment, tells me allot of big traders are not trading this.
Bitfinex we are still above the 6800, but lets be real, a drop this big after a rally it made, that's not a good sign as well. But prices are inflated there and other tether exchanges because of the Tether problems.
Only thing I can think of is, the rally was purely caused by a big short squeeze on bitfinex! Since shorts dropped 10.000 bitcoin, which might be enough to trigger stops, in other words a short squeeze. But still need to look at some facts like volume etc.
If that green support holds, we might see a counter move up
It's getting crazier and crazier, BITFINEX is off by 0,4% in the meantime - and that's a lot.
TradingView automatic technical analysis tool says SELL Bitcoin on COINBASE and BUY Bitcoin on BITFINEX at the same time...
Did some math just now. Just realized that the price on Bitfinex didn't even go above $6600 at any point yesterday if you convert the price to real dollars by multiplying the Tether price at the time. So there isn't a breakout as yet. Right now the price of BTC on Bitfinex is around $6430 ($6700 x .096) , similar to real USD exchanges.
Tether is no longer 1:1 vs the USD so you can't use it for TA unless you convert to the true Dollar price. So using Bitfinex BTC charts for TA will only mislead as the exchange rate of Tether vs USD has changed over time. I've switched to charting with Bitstamp which is real USD.
Also, I’ve updated my BTCUSD Black Swan analysis (see profile for link) with comparison of late 2013/2014 fractal and BTCUSD late 2017/Today. See below. Main differences of patterns are consistent with my Black Swan analysis. Dampened 2018 retrace is truncated Bull market (fifth) and dampened 2018 dip is truncated Bear market (of Wave C).
The movements on Bitfinex are also no longer mirrored clearly on other exchanges. Yesterday Bitfinex was moving in a $300 range after the initlal pump. Bitstamp only traded in a $100 range after the pump and hardly moved when Bitfinex dropped $200 to $6666 yesterday.