Illustrated in this chart is the relationship between the BTC USD price and the options expiration dates. Please note that the options expiration dates typically occur on the last Friday of each month and are illustrated here by the blue vertical lines. The options expiration dates shown here are Dec 25, 2020, Jan 29, 2021, Feb 26, 2021, Mar 26, 2021, April 23, 2021, and May 28, 2021. After the options expiration dates on Dec 25, 2020, Jan 29, 2021, Feb 26, 2021, and Mar 26, 2021, the BTC price increased by 86.39%, 102.95%, 43.03%, and 29.59%, respectively, over 14, 25, 14, and 20 days, respectively. Importantly, the BTC USD price exhibited significant decreases in price of 31.66%, 26.29%, 18.97%, and 27.20% prior the options expiration dates of Jan 29, 2021, Feb 26, 2021, Mar 26, 2021, and April 23, 2021, respectively, which occurred over 21, 6, 12, and 10 days, respectively. As illustrated in the chart, the BTC USD price has increased significantly (65.49%, on average) after each of these options expiration dates and decreased significantly (26.03%, on average) leading up to each of these options expiration dates. Thus, there is potential for this trend to continue in late April to the end of May. Please note that this is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
Please see the hyperlinks give above for more information about BTC options expiration dates.
Comment
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There has been some interest in the comments about the use of the Phoenix Ascending indicator and Bad Ass Bollinger Bands. Please note that the indicators have bee made publicly available on Trading View by David Ward @WyckoffMode. Provided below are tutorials on how to set up the indicators. For those interested in using Phoenix Ascending and Bad Ass Bollinger Bands, please see David Ward's @WyckoffMode publications for an education on how to properly use and interpret the indicators. In addition, there is a WyckoffMode Discord channel, where students of David Ward discuss crypto trading using Phoenix Ascending. Finally, in the near future David Ward @WyckoffMode will be providing a formal education of crypto and forex trading using Phoenix Ascending; this will be a subscription based service.
Thanks for posting this chart and update about BTC compared to the options market. It's been featured in Editors' Picks.
Eightchains
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@TradingView, Thanks so much for your donation and for featuring this chart in the Editors' Picks! I appreciate it.
watchtrend
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@djr0726, Thanks for your nice explain, i hope to see you with BTC chart soon, our expecting are bullrun 55k+ for bitcoin
cryptospawn
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One thing making me feel uneasy is that you have green zones followed by red zones. And in the first 3 zones the red zone doesn't fall below the green zone. But in this fourth one it actually does. This is giving me bear creeps if you know what I mean. I'm wondering if we are now headed into the next multi-year crypto winter.
Eightchains
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@cryptospawn, That's not true. Please look at the chart again. The fourth one starts around $47,000 and goes up to around $78,000 (green zone). It would then retrace to around $58,000 (red zone), which is above $47,000. We are in a bull market to the Fall at least.
Omega77
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@djr0726, No it doesn't. It starts at 50K and drops down to 47K, @cryptospawn is right, this is the first time one of these zones dips below start, looks bearish to me if anything.
Eightchains
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@Omega77, Okay. I understand. Yeah, that's true. BTC ripped the first week or so of Jan and the first few weeks of Feb and the net change in price has been flat ever since. We should put ourselves in position to take advantage of the run ups (by being long prior to them) and the dips/corrections (by selling at or near the high or shorting).
fondCloud47756
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@djr0726, That's the cycle YOU predict. @cryptospawn means that the 3th cycle (starting 26th march) begins with 50K and ends at 47K, which is for the first time lower than the starting point (50K).
usefulAnalyst74141
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@fondCloud47756, even in bull markets we have lower highs and higher lows. adjust your time perspective.