I have published for btcusd few weeks ago, I was expecting another upside attempt before a new strong plunge.
I still maintain that view, the recent parabolic rise is readjusting, and this is a normal phenomena in the financial markets. I am adding some further technical observation though to this post.
If we look back to 2013, we can observe that the price has made high at 259 bore retracing and exploding back to break 259 and head rapidly to 1163 high. Meantime, Fisher indicator has shown a significant bearish divergence, as it reflects the unusual speed of the movement.
If we compare that period with the recent price movement in 2017. We will find a clear similarity in price action as the price moves in a rapid upwave to record a significant high at 2980, meanwhile fisher indicators shows strong divergence.
However, a key level could be more pivotal for short term price movement, which is the low for the major weekly candle as shown on chart, at 2120. We could see short term bounces from this level. However, a break and weekly closing below it -which i expect will happen sooner or later- will probably extend the move towards the mean of 52-weeks simple moving average in addition to the main rising trend lines. Where i expect the behavior we saw in 2013 to repeat it self ( A strong bearish readjustment and another period of price exploration in sideways movement just around $1100-1000 areas)
Note: A good forecast or a bad forecast is not a big deal, it is just a forecast. If i am wrong i would lose some money, and if i am right i would make some money. It is as simple as that. No need to be to emotional, as there is nothing personal about a forecast. I have Learnt to learn to accept other peoples opinion and actually consider it, whether i agree to it or not.
Trade safe, Best Technician
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I have noticed something dominant here among most of the users trying to bash this forecast. They mention the coming deadline and fundamentals behind the move. They don't have an understanding of what technical analysis is. They mostly think that technical traders think technical analysis is a reason behind market movement . I must say that this is a common misconception. Technical analysis is the study of price movement and what it is currently doing in anticipation to forecast future movement. Technical analysis through the pricr action is the purest representation of all markey conditions, fundamental and sentiement. Having that in mind T.A concludes that we only need to understand what price is doing because it includes all the information. and usually human behavior is repetitive and that create patterns that in a good percentage behave the same way.
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1850 is the short term support. Then 1600.
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My expected scenario FAILED. The bubble will probably grow and grow further.
@Technician, i hope you will learn soon whats is sense and what is non-sense. Instead of making some imaginary false assumptions about me struggling :D. Again, taking a forecast personally.
Technician
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@giorgiokf, never said i am right, i always have wrong forecasts. And mature enough not pretend anything else. Hope some ppl will grow up and stop being like kids, when they hear things they don't like. I have to learn to ignore those ppl.
Technician
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@Technician, oh just found your comment on my earlier idea. you were expecting 6k, i also hope that you man up when you are wrong.
giorgiokf
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@Technician, still expecting 6k by December. I'll check out on you by then.
giorgiokf
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Oh and by the way. Reversal is happening now, you still have a chance to catch the train :)
Technician
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@giorgiokf, man seriously take care. Anyway, good luck. See you.