What's going on traders, hope you are having a nice day. I just wanted to check in with this very recent price action that BTC is showing us.
After making its way up and over the 200SMA, it quickly used it as support and so far is looking strong to the upside (for now).
- A golden cross has just been confirmed for the daily, this is a medium-longer term indication of price action in the upcoming future. The 55EMA has crossed above the 200EMA, a bullish cross...
But do not think that buying right away at this price is a good idea! This is due to the fact that price action often gets pulled towards the cross (downwards towards it). Throughout BTC's history, once a golden cross for the daily is initiated price action either falls down into the 55EMA or at least to the 21EMA.
Here are some examples:
- April 2019
- November 2016
- June 2012
- This one is the most recent 12H golden cross and is a perfect example as the price comes down into the 55EMA and starts to try higher.
Bitcoin currently has closed a Daily just underneath a key price level ($9575) that is where the previous candle high closes are located (28th Oct 2019).
For BTC to truly break out of the bearish trend it has been in since mid last year, it needs to close at least a Daily above this level with confluent follow-through price action. (This will officially confirm a change in behaviour, as it would be creating higher highs). Right now, based on the previous golden crosses, I am looking for sideways movement and potentially some down where it may test the 10SMA or 200MA as support.
(I just wanted to include this as I like to use it to base long term trends from it) - This is the Gaussian Channel [DW], and it has turned green recently on the 19th Jan. This is extremely reliable in showing the longer-term trend, and this would mean long-term bullish.
Don't get me wrong, I believe this year BTC will continue its bull cycle as the halving gets ever so close! (ETA 15th May)...
For now, I am not opening any more long-term positions until it either breaks these levels, or tests the areas I have mentioned and shows strong bullish behaviour.
- Please let me know your own thoughts on Bitcoin's price in the comments! Cheers.
We need a strong volume close above that resistance level, possible bearish divergence on that hourly? I think a retest back to 200MA is likely
olleyy
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@AzizKhanZamani, I agree. I think BTC might go down to around $9000 before any larger moves up. But who knows because if some big players want to move this market they sure can!