Probably a more realistic scenario for BTC is not a quick recovery - no fundamental reasons for it - but a long period of accumulation following the period of distribution that was 2018. You can choose to trade the chop or you can pick the long term view and buy low and forget about it for a few years.
If you think you are a trader but want the price of BTC to go up, you're fooling yourself. You're not a trader, you're an active investor. And that is the best way to lose your money ASAP. Find out who you are and act accordingly. I doubt that we will see 10K in 2019 or even 2020 and, if you're honest with yourself, you should see that is very unlikely unless we get some really bullish news. Bull runs don't happen because you want them to.
Don't think Bakkt or other derivative markets will cause a bull run. Derivatives only take money OUT of the actual BTC market, they do not add capital to it. Big players prefer BTC to remain between 3 and 6 for longer. They don't make their money of a rise in BTC prices. No way to cash out on that. There is money to be made from volatility in a controlled trading range.
Bitcoin is not dead, not even close, but 2017 was a bubble, 2018 was the year of distribution, 2019/2020 probably will be accumulation. It helps to understand the market and the maturity level of crypto. We are not even close to adoption and if you hoped to get rich quick, you probably will be disappointed.
Good analysis. I agree with you for the most part and like your chart. However, I am very skeptical of crypto making it past 10 years. Over 90% of the big money in America and even the world is held by the rich and all in FIAT. And those people have enough money to manipulate bitcoin's price at any time. In the end, they will try to squash it when it wants to grow. America can't even accept the metric system and rarely have people speaking two languages - so it's a slow nation. Mass adoption may not even happen. Like Warren Buffet said "there is probably some value in blockchain technology, but I'm afraid the coins will end badly." Doesn't matter if he understands crypto or not, he understands the guts of the financial world and has made over $70 billion through his decisions. That speaks volumes. I would love to see mass adoption, but realistically, there are too many against it. At this moment, there is less than 0.4% of the global wealth in crypto. Seems like only a dream for it to even complete with FIAT. No way will it replace it.
henkybaby
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@guitarsolo_bob, Totally agree. I don't even think BTC will lead in 5 year. PoW is outdated and crypto needs to be incorporated into the Financial Sector to grow as suggested. However, the attraction for the Financial sector is to develop derivatives based on speculative assets like Bitcoin. I don't think they worry about BTC as a threat to the system for even a millisecond.
Also always good to separate DLT from crypto currencies. Banks are already using DLT. Just not with public ledgers and nodes etc.
guitarsolo_bob
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@henkybaby, Good to see that you are realistic about this like myself, and not get caught up in the emotional hopeful dream. All the best, Bob
CryptoGuaica
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That's ugly, but fair game
pegonzi
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I generally agree with you, though I'd like to say: don't underestimate FOMOers and speculators, which may "squeeze time", calling in more and more FOMOers into the market, therefore determining an anticipation of events (i.e. the next proper bull run)
henkybaby
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@pegonzi, Of course. Just thinking in what is most probable. Everything is possible of course. :-)