So many calls for the 7-8k range being the top for BTC and a large correction coming imminently. Its very easy to read into the chart that we are very near completing Wave 5 in an Elliot Wave pattern, I myself see this clearly when I read the charts, it practically screams this out, its clear and perfect looking. I want to discuss the possibility that perhaps we are nearing the top of wave 3 in Elliot wave, due a downward correction of wave 4, but with a continued push higher on the final impulse wave to the 10k range. Sometimes was have to make the TA fit the reality of the situation more than the other way around. TA is not an exact process, rather a mix of science, art, math, and a little bit of luck at times.
Perhaps history does repeat itself. When you look back to October of 2013, BTCUSD was price was about 120 BTC/USD, by Nov 29th 2013 it peaked at 1126, a near 10x gain before ultimatley pulling back about 50% from the high and then entering a bear phase until October 2013. I am hoping we do not enter a 2 year bear market for BTCUSD. But like all things on the earth markets too are affected by gravity and when it feels like there is no way it will correct, it will.
My take is we will consolidate and build a base here in the low 7k range for a short period. BTC/USD will make a go at 8k and perhaps make it up to 8,000-8,500 range before ultimately failing and then falling to form the 4th wave down trend, falling to 6k -6,500 range. Then it will make a final bull run of this cycle to 10k area before the cycle correction is started. I am biased long for now waiting for a break above 7410 to add to long.
Looks like BTCUSD is punishing me again for impatience. Market pullback here at 6,847. If if holds here we might be forming a new support level. If it doesn't this might be our much needed correction. Can see this drifting lower to 6100. Strong support at 5700- 5800 level, good chance we get there if this is the correction, I would look to go longer at that level. beyond that 5,100 then 4,800 support levels.
I'd guess before we 10X from here, we will need to be more practical adoption and tech upgrades with SegWit/Lightning, and further development of other network effects, so that it's more practical for smaller transactions, and accepted in exchange for more products and services. If Bitcoin 10Xed from here on speculation alone, it's getting ahead of itself.
lewistz
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@ansonphong, I think the fact that Segwit2x failed will ultimately be good. Because with blatant issues related to fees/transaction speed/ limitations BTC community is going to get the message an upgrade needs to be done and consensus has to me met to do that. So while it looks like we are set back a year now technology wise, the next upgrade will most likely be better (similar to BCH) it will happen. People have a stake in this and do not want or can afford for it to fail. But yes 10x would be the market getting way ahead of itself, the potential is there still with btc, it’s just a couple more steps away than it seemed a month ago.
DeeganPope
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We might hit $6500 in the next few hours at this rate.
lewistz
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@DeeganPope, We will see. Market needs a correction. In my opinion the longer it goes without one, the scarier and more damaging it would be. I am still bullish. But there is now a clear short term downward trend forming from Nov 8th.