The picture becomes clearer each day. Well, some will look at my chart and say it's not that clear, not with all those lines! LOL.
Focus people ... don't worry about all the dashed support lines, just look at the bold red and bold blue.
Here's a quick explanation:
- we could go down from right here. - I do see room for it to go up to around 7600 where the all time high trend line sits (dark maroon line). - we need a correction soon, question is how far. - one possible movement to look out for is a small correction now and then a double top in around 2 weeks, which simply follows the trend of all the other peaks. So we could get stuck below 7500 before it comes down. - so I think we correct up or sideways now to CBOE ETF decision date. I'm assuming a delay will be announced Sep 17th, which is one week before the deadline of Sep 24th. That red zone is where I think we will get news from SEC. - if the decision is positive, we go bull market ... and need to change our tune. - if there is a delay or even worse, a rejection of the ETF ... get ready for 4.5k to 5k.
Now, you should know, there are obviously MANY more scenarios that aren't on my plot ... I don't want to confuse everyone, so I just put up my most probably bull and bear scenarios. For instance, I hear people talk of going to 10k now ... yeah, if these whales keep buying and pushing the price up (thanks Bitfinex) ... maybe. But I really don't see any fundamental reason for going to 10k now ... think of it like a business ... why would you invest right now? If you knew something fundamentally changed (like an ETF is approved), sure, then it makes sense ... but lacking this decision, what is different from yesterday? Oh you might say we tested 5700/5800 twice ... yeah, who cares? We can test it again, in fact if you know it got there, that would say it can get there again if nothing's changed.
Anyhow, I partially closed some longs, and am hoping/waiting for 7500 - 7600 to close more longs. Then wait to see what the market does, anticipating we will need to correct, and possible go to the bottom. I don't expect a wild bounce from 4.5k ... reason is, whales will need lots of time to accumulate. This would keep us sub 6k for a while, and then we take off as the ETF is approved, maybe at the end of the year to prepare for a 2019 launch. SEC can delay until March next year though ... so it all depends on how much time the whales need to accumulate.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this info for trading/investments/financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
Comment
⋅
Small update. SEC decision deadline was moved to Sep 30th. So either look for a positive or negative final decision on Sep 30th, or a delay in the decision the week before. I've adjusted the chart a little bit due to that.
Comment
⋅
Everyone, see my first point above, there's a reason I put it first "We can go down from here". We needed a retrace ... very, very hard to crack 7400 without some momentum. At the moment we sit at the top of the rising wedge ... and so there's NO confirmation we are entering a major reversal right now. Only if/when it breaks down below this wedge (see where the black circle is in the snapshot below), do we have confirmation the down has started ... so 78XX is key right now. It's why I posted the possibility of going down from 7400.
68XX is a possible long opportunity, as long as you protect with a stop ... you'll need to decide on how much cushion to add ... but remember, whales will want to wick your stop. 67XX would probably be where I'd place it.
Where to take profit? 7200 to 7400 ... and leave a gamble you're prepared to lose to go to 7600. Based on the momentum of that drop ... I'd say the chances of a double top just increase dramatically. A double top is now my main strategy, with options we go do not go up but down from here, and a small possibility we do hit 7600.
Trade smart. For educational purposes only.
Comment
⋅
Everyone ... in this bear market, I only long retraces, and short major resistance (trend lines in play for months to years, key fibo, etc). The reason is, exactly what happened this morning. Everyone on twitter calling for a long ... and ignoring DATA and good investment strategies.
I can write everything I look at here, but one other thing I do consider is tensorcharts.com ... have a look. Yesterday I noticed they had pulled the buy order support and started stacking sells at 7400/7500 territory. Alts looked like they were topping ... and then at 2:30 to 3:00 PM EST (UCT-4), on bitfinex ... games were played (look at 15 minute candle). I got a wiff of a shake out about to happen ... when you see candles like that, it's almost certain whales are testing the waters ... so if we are in a mini-bull, why would they want to test? I'd say to change direction! The writing was on the wall!
Comment
⋅
Folks, here's what I'm looking at. I don't think this drop is over ... but it's possible. If the blue wave is correct, then we could have a flat correction ... back up to 7400 for a double top and then down.
I'm banking on the red wave though ... that drop was really violent. Only concern is that a short squeeze is juicy right now. Shorts are close to ATH again ...
We have to look for clues. If we get another pulse down to 6000 - 6250 soon, then that almost definitely confirms the red wave. If we rally up from here, it likely means the blue wave (not guaranteed though, but increases the odds).
We are for sure at a critical juncture.
Trade cautiously, use stops ... I've been projecting a low at end of September for months now ... and I think this could be it ... but at same time the shorts is insanely high.
Comment
⋅
Here's an interesting one for you guys and gals. As you know many are calling this a repeat of 2014/2015 with time scale being faster in 2018 to bring us to almost the same point in 2015 (bottom was in Aug 2015 vs. Sep in 2018?). Well here it is. You may argue that the bottom of 5.8k was it in Aug 2018 ... but I do think we have room for one more drop ... possibly fueled by a delay in the CBOE ETF decision by SEC. So much confusion in the market though ... I do think we are close to a bottom ... calculate it to be 4.5k to 5k. 5.4k and 5.8k are also lower probability targets. If 5.8k is true, then we have passed the bottom already. Tough situation though ... what if we knew BTC would go to 30k in the next 6 months. Would I care so much if we bought at 5k vs. 5.8k? $800? I know a lower price means I can accumulate more BTC, and that makes a difference ... but how about this? Why if I set a buy range 4.5k to 6k, and ladder in buys ... if it dips lower to even 3k, I can always throw fresh money at it. I wonder if that's what the whales are doing? I wonder who is buying all the shorts (bitfinex shorts volume at close to record high). We also have to remember, shorting here carries a similar risk to buying BTC at 15k to 20k. Be careful folks ... what to do is not obvious to anyone, and certainly not the Twitter Twits.
@DeepandMoon, yes, that's why I think it has the fuel to reach 7600ish ... hit the top of the trend ... maybe even fake out and trap some bulls. But it will need a correction soon. Shorts are building up again on bitfinex ... so the confusing thing is that a short squeeze is back on the table ... many people are confused right now, as the signals are conflicting. I'm just going by the major trend lines on the daily chart and swing trading those ... I'll enter a short position at 7600, if it gets there. I'll add to my short if it breaks up to 7800 - 8200. After that, I'll protect with a stop.
TomPower
⋅
@MAGICMARK, WTF it dumped at 7400, any chance for a double top i'm stuck long
MAGICMARK
⋅
@TomPower, we were expecting a correction ... it was in desperate need of one. Right now, no reason to panic. We are still inside the rising wedge. In fact 68XX may be a great long opportunity. But a stop is needed below the wedge to protect any long position. Risk/reward has to be evaluated based on your entry position. I sold at 7.2k, and was waiting for 7.6k to short ... I did not dare long at the 7000 to 7400 range, fearing a potential dump due to bull exhaustion ... despite what everyone on Twitter is saying.
If you're not happy with your entry, know this, we are probably close to the top ... somewhere between 7400 and 7600 in my opinion. Don't mess around ... figure out your laddered exits. 7200, 7400, 7600?? And if I'm wrong ... and we are going to 10k ... well, we will know that if we crack 8.5k, and I'd rather wait ... than guess at what could possibly be the very top.
As you know, many possibilities, and based on the price action, I re-prioritize them in my head with most likely on top ... 7400 top is now my most likely, due to the violence of that drop, the fact that we still remained in the wedge, and historical patterns.
Good luck!
MAGICMARK
⋅
@TomPower, well, it seems 7400 was the top, and my first point was as important as I thought it would be. Did you protect with a stop?
@TomPower, alright man. One thing ... I always, always make sure I have some cash to buy a really big correction. If this went to 4.5k, wouldn't you want $ to buy? I never view this game as an all in or all out. I see it like a cup that I empty a bit when the price goes up, but I leave some in to drink, and I fill it when the price goes down, but always leave room to fill more in case things go cheap. I won't be all in until we hit 4.5k, and below that I'll start using leverage. I won't be all out until we hit 30k or higher. In between I swing trade with a portion of my capital ... to accumulate for what a truly hope will be a good bull run. I believe w just need to be patient at this stage. Could take several months as whales accumulate in this range.