Bitcoin - Global View. What's Next?

In this idea we will discuss several possible scenarios of price move, formed support and resistance and also we'll take a look at the exchanges data about long and short positions opened.

After the previous week's pump, strong volumes appeared on the market, so candle volatility became much more higher. Our team loves volatility: stronger pumps - higher profit! Thus, as long as the price keeps inside the triangle drawn on the chart, you can safely open longs near support and shorts around the resistance with the tight stop. But we are much more interested in the mid-term future of Bitcoin!

First of all let's note that the price has broken the MA 200 on the daily chart, which already is a strong bullish sign for an uptrend.
Over the past week, the price has drawn a flat triangle (about which we spoke above). A way out of such triangle is always a pump, as this is a bullish pattern just like bullish flag, bullish pennant and bullish wedge. Therefore, we should expect a break of $5300 level (resistance of the triangle) and pump till $5800 - $6000. This area is an important psychological resistance of the market, from which with a 96% probability we'll see a correction wave and with the same probability we can expect BTC dump to $5011.
In addition, on the BTCUSDSHORTS chart you can see a massive decrease from 22,7k to 16,6k, which gives us a hint that someone with a huge balance closed his short and is waiting for the growth.

However, each trader with long position has a stop order, you should always remember that, since MM likes to trigger stops. The most obvious point for placing a stop is the place above the gap between $4200 and $4600, where BTC was barely traded (that's one of the reasons of such a strong pump from $4200), which means that the dump inside the gap will be as quick as pump. Thus, if the market somehow breaks the $4690 - $4810 level and fixes below $4680, most part of longs will close at any tiny decrease, which can cause the stop orders triggers - and that will throw the price even lower, so it's important to carefully place your position and stop orders.

Some general information:

Bitfinex
LONGS: $136,546,148 60.54%
SHORTS: $89,001,516 39.46%

Bitmex
LONGS: $224,090,432 56.90%
SHORTS: $169,744,256 43.10%

TOTAL
LONGS: $360,636,580 58.23%
SHORTS: $258,745,772 41.77%

CME: (Leveraged Funds)
LONGS: $1,792,925 2.36%
SHORTS: $74,260,000 97.64%

CME: (Nonreportable Positions)
LONGS: $35,755,000 82.35%
SHORTS: $7,665,000 17.65%

CME - TOTAL
LONGS: $37,547,925 31.43%
SHORTS: $81,925,000 68.57%

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