ShortThePlanet
Short

Let's check how Gann Angles work

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1908 37 17
According to the Gann fan , we should find the first real support only on the 2/1 angle, which means price target at 200-300 USD/BTC.
Just in time for the holiday season. I look forward to trendline support that most everyone can finally agree upon. The ones we keep breaching lately are too controversial and edge-of-the-knife for comfort.
+2 Reply
Unfortunatly you are missing basic fundamentals..

Bitcoin has made huge progress in regards of market adoption and public awareness to mention only two of a hundred positive changes since 2012. But still you think it will fall back to the supportline last visited end of 2012, where btc was nothing compared to today.

Maybe you can ask the admin if he can delete this chart for you.. :D
-4 Reply
Over 1000 'altcoins' have been made to date. Less than a dozen have ANY traction. TWO, which were the DARLINGS of the crypto world are dead and shriveling... ONE of those two has gone AuxPoW.

If you don't understand the relevancy, then you might wish to ask an admin to delete YOUR post. ;)
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No1 MarvinMartian
why does your post has nothing to do with my post? and if you think about it, my post "discussing" a chart..

none of these alts will beat the network of btc anytime soon.. u claim to be a coder and to have insight on 3 exchanges orderbooks.. but you could also be a liar.. who knows... and who cares...

All I know is that your posts have a touch of hatred and lots of negativity in regards to cryptos and btc's prospects... so I wonder why you waste your time here..
-2 Reply
> so I wonder why you waste your time here..

Because at least once a week, I see someone invest in crypto that has no business investing in it and losing their money.

All of the rose-colored-glasses charts and "positive, upbeat sentiments" about a cryptocoin that has only been around (in active circulation) for a year and a half and is being rampantly manipulated by algorithmic bots, hoarded by millionaires, and traded by the denizens of the underworld for illicit activity are confusing people into thinking this is a sound investment.

And I want them to see, people actually have differing opinions about the validity of this coin.

> All I know is that your posts have a touch of hatred and lots of negativity

Now you want to discuss psychology. Which is fine, since I minored in that... you might want to research this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases and go with, Belief Bias, Bias blind spot, Optimism bias, and a few others.

But I can assure you, the only negativity is what is perceived by your cognitive biases. I was very neutral and factual in what I said.
-1 Reply
Unrealistic without any extremely bad news, I assume you wanna get some more yourself
-1 Reply
Agreed. I get to just under $250 using some estimates based on concepts from Hurst Price Cycles and using KDJ indicator as stand-in for price. Working on going through a Hurst Price Cycles book to attempt constructing the actual cycles, but think my method is a good proxy. People are too optimistic about Bitcoin price and for some reason think adoption and innovation mean higher prices. How did that work out for computer chips and hard drives?
-5 Reply
ShortThePlanet TerryKinder
Agreed. I'm sure the price will fall much lower, but in the intermediate term we could expect some correction (bounce) in the 200-300 area
-4 Reply
Hawkeye TerryKinder
computer chips and harddrives are not limited to 21M pieces if they were a chip would cost millions
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Even things which are limited do not always move up in price. I suspect too that a part of the future Bitcoin price will be in what the balance is between use as a medium of exchange versus investment / speculation. Right now investment / speculation constitute a good deal of the use. What happens if the use tilts towards medium of exchange with a higher velocity?
-2 Reply
MoonTrader TerryKinder
Computer chips and hard drives don't depend on the number of users for their value. Bitcoin does. The more people use it, the more valuable it is. A better comparison would be telephone service. The more people you can contact with it, the more value it has.
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TerryKinder MoonTrader
But phone service still costs far less than when I grew up despite everything you say. I can contact people all over the world for virtually nothing. A phone call that cost over $0.45 per minute to Guatemala 18 years ago costs under twenty cents today.

Automobiles are more common and relatively less expensive than when they were invented. The same goes for televisions, cell phones, computers, microwave ovens, etc.

What Bitcoin can do (programmable money, medium of exchange, programmable contracts, letters of credit, forex, etc.) must be separated from its perceived value by people who are trading it on exchanges. Just because it is more widespread in its use doesn't mean the value you pay per Bitcoin goes up. Instead, the value of the companies that invent novel uses for Bitcoin may go up and the overall value of the Bitcoin economy and Bitcoin businesses may go up. That doesn't necessarily lead to the Bitcoin price going up.

Even assuming that the price of Bitcoin goes up based on its overall use, it would be hard to argue that it has to go up in a straight line or a one to one relationship. Things don't work that way.
-2 Reply
MoonTrader TerryKinder
That's because phones have been around for a very long time. They are cheap because, unlike bitcoin, industries have grown up around it and made it very practical to produce. Its price has gone down, but its value hasn't. When it was just starting out, a phone wouldn't have been very valuable until other people began to use it. Admittedly, however, it's not the best comparison since bitcoin is a currency and not a technology at all, so its price isn't really a service or product offered by entrepreneurs. It depends on the entire network using it, and its price is likely to rise when it is used more because more people will accept it as payment and more people, therefore, will be willing to use it as payment, creating greater demand. The growth of bitcoin is nothing like technology, in all honesty. I only used that analogy to show how the network effect works.
-1 Reply
TerryKinder MoonTrader
Bitcoin is not a currency. It is however a fantastic medium of exchange. Read the following two blogs that will illuminate (perhaps like a full moon on a clear night) how Bitcoin fits in with Austrian Economics and why it is a medium of exchange, but not yet a currency.

http://www.economicsofbitcoin.com/

http://konradsgraf.com/

It's primary value is both speculative and as a technology today. Read the above two blogs because Bitcoin is clearly not a currency.
-2 Reply
TerryKinder MoonTrader
In addition you can't look at Bitcoin or anything else in isolation. You have to consider the overall economy and the alternative places that people can invest in or put their earnings in as a store of value. Bitcoin, like the Dollar, Euro, Yen, Yuan, gold, silver, etc. has competition. People may invest in land, old wine, classic or modern art, etc. So while Bitcoin may be relatively scarce, a piece of art or a rare coin may be unique. Even rare art or other scarce objects don't go up uniformly in price. It is too simplistic to say that scarcity, rarity, or network effects are a sufficient condition for higher prices. They are necessary conditions perhaps, but not sufficient. There are other things to consider.
-1 Reply
MoonTrader TerryKinder
Bitcoin is unlike anything we've had recently. We've had gold for thousands of years and the dollar was derived from that over time. All paper currencies were. Currencies are not like any consumer product. Its not necessarily the scarcity of bitcoin that causes it to go up, although that is a large factor, the network effect drives the price up while the scarcity causes it to be immune to the effect of more and more companies offering it since it does not depend on the existence of companies. It is an entity in and of itself that both has scarcity and employs the network effect. The price will stabilize, eventually, but I don't believe that has happened yet.
-1 Reply
TerryKinder MoonTrader
Did the network effect drive the prices of computers and Internet service up? Just the opposite in fact occurred. I would be interested to know what the effect of the divisibility of Bitcoin will be in relation to the price as well. My point is, however, that just because of scarcity, network effects, etc. don't expect Bitcoin to go up. I think it will likely go down short-to-medium term and then go up. But, like other prices it is driven by supply and demand. It can be scarce but price will rise or fall based on demand. Low demand as expressed by the On Balance Indicator Volume (OBV) and the frequency of days below 10,000 volume on Bitstamp do not demonstrate a high level of demand right now. That can, of course, change. But right now demand is trending generally down.
-1 Reply
MoonTrader TerryKinder
You're comparing bitcoin to consumer products again. It cannot be compared to those things because its value is not dependent on companies mass-producing and providing it to the public. It does not require production or providers. This differentiates it from literally every other technology that we've seen yet.
-1 Reply
TerryKinder MoonTrader
The price of Bitcoin follows the same rules as prices of other things. Before you keep going on, you first ought to read the two sites that were pointed out because they show Bitcoin as a medium of exchange and not a currency.

Second of all, the point of discussing telephones, computers, cell phones, automobiles, etc. is to demonstrate how the network effect ultimately drives down price. It doesn't matter whether the product is a consumer one or not. Bitcoin is a technology. I assume it is aimed at consumers vs. governments. So, it is in some form a consumer technology. It is produced differently than say a computer, but it is nevertheless produced and does have costs. Those costs to produce Bitcoin enticed "miners" to participate in the network. It is simple cost benefit. The same cost benefit analysis influences all adopters of technology from whether or not a company upgrades its computers to the latest OS to whether a retailer uses a service to accept Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is in some ways different, but it still follows economic principles, the law of supply and demand, etc.

I'm simply presenting the argument for consideration whether the network effect necessarily means the Bitcoin price will go up. Have stated this before - it is a necessary but not sufficient condition to insure that the price continues to go up. There are many more factors and it is simply one-dimensional thinking to believe that solely based on network effects or innovative technology that the price must go up. It may, but it will be based on a good many factors from supply and demand, network effects, price cycles and more.

By getting hung up on the comparisons you're missing the larger point which is far more valuable and will help determine the future price. Understanding what Bitcoin is and isn't also will influence how you and others invest in it.
-2 Reply
MoonTrader TerryKinder
No, it doesn't. Sorry, but you're wrong. We're just going to have to disagree.
+1 Reply
TerryKinder MoonTrader
Of course it does. If we assumed Bitcoin is a currency (as you have stated, even though under Austrian Economic Theory it clearly is not), currencies obey economic laws. Supply and demand apply to them. It isn't different this time.
-3 Reply
MoonTrader TerryKinder
I understand that, but you don't seem to understand.
-2 Reply
TerryKinder MoonTrader
Bitcoin has more in common with every technology than points of differentiation. The fact that it is created through mining by either private individuals, groups, or for profit companies does not outweigh its technological roots, supply and demand or economic laws. I'd be interested in a specific explanation of your concept of Bitcoin's production and its relationship to price. What is the model? How does the model differ from any other current thing with a price. It would also be interesting to see if your model (not just technical or other analysis alone, but in conjunction with a well-constructed model) can predict price movements of Bitcoin. If you can do that, I would be interested in hearing that. Otherwise, until you can construct a valid model that highlights the unique points, shows the specific differences with the prices of other things, and is predictive, I'll just be waiting to see what you come up with.
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Amazing how differently the gann fan lines up once repositioned over historic price data. Now it looks like it's are about to bounce hard off the 4/1.
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Emanance Emanance
see..
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Emanance Emanance
snapshot
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or break it and crash to sub-50s
-1 Reply
Emanance ShortThePlanet
Yeah that also I guess. $11.00 BTC here we come :P
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MoonTrader ShortThePlanet
It's almost as if some people are desperately wishing for this to happen...
-1 Reply
MarvinMartian MoonTrader
It's almost as if some people are in at a bad price and are hoping they can talk it up to pull their position out.

tl;dr http://i.imgur.com/fjxq5J5.jpg
-1 Reply
MoonTrader MarvinMartian
Not me. I'm doing fine. Just watch...
-1 Reply
TerryKinder Emanance
Is there a reason it is going to bounce off 4/1? What is the reason it will bounce hard?
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Emanance TerryKinder
Historic precedent. I'm aware the only thing keeping the price up right now is the network effect of people who see value in it. Therefore I can see that the price could just as well collapse as it could bubble again. But I can pose the same question in reverse: Why will the price just collapse when every day more & more individuals & organisations are seeing the value in it?
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TerryKinder Emanance
I have no idea if the price will go up or down. I simply look at the technical indicators, chart patterns, historical patterns, price cycles and attempt to determine the direction and momentum of price. I don't care whether the price rises or falls as an investor. I believe Bitcoin is revolutionary and extremely useful. It has applications as a medium of exchange, can save consumers and businesses on transaction costs. It can be used to do everything from letters of credit, to contracts, and much more. It is essentially programmable. So I am very aware of the innovation represented by Bitcoin.

I think what people should consider, however, is whether the Bitcoin price is tied to the value of the network as closely as some think. Will the value added by innovators be added to Bitcoin itself or to the companies doing the innovation. If a programmer adds a service layer on top of Bitcoin that allows a letter of credit to be created, does most of that value add to Bitcoin or to the programmer and the company that creates that innovation. I'm not sure what the answer is. However, the idea that the network effect - more individuals and businesses using Bitcoin (and the network protocol) does not lead necessarily to a higher Bitcoin value.

I was merely attempting to find out if you had some technical reason (or any other reason) you seemed so convinced that the chart pattern revealed that the Bitcoin price had to bounce - not only bounce, but bounce hard.

The network effect often tends to drive costs and profits down. There are innumerable examples - credit card fees, Internet service, televisions, cars, computers, computer memory and on and on. The wide degree of telecommunications has not allowed AT&T to grow exponentially although they essentially invented the telephone and the network. Edison invented the light bulb, but General Electric did not grow without limit despite being tied to the inventor of the innovation.

I try to look at prices technically and logically and ask questions. I don't know where the price of Bitcoin will go, but I do have a range of valid prices based on Point and Figure charting. The upside target is $900 and the downside targets are $360, $260 and $140 if memory serves. It's unimportant which way price goes. I'm not emotionally invested in where price will go, but I am dogged and persistent in attempting to gauge price direction and momentum. Was just curious if there was something that so convinced you price had to go up. I'm not convinced that is going to happen yet. I think, based on research, that price may drift down for a while, perhaps several months. I'm watching and waiting for the best entry price so I can go long.
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Bitcoin price will go under its original trend


hmm
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So, do you think we have reached the bottom by touching 277$ on Bitstamp (and hereby your Gann Angle 2/1) on Jan, 4th? Would love to hear your opinion regarding the price and this awesome chart :)
Best,
Grinny
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