** Freshly in the cryptospace, Here is my coming out on what's is going with Godfather Bitcoin. Disclaimer : I am a learner ; not a technician **
-- ONE-YEAR PICTURE--
Bitcoin is in a HEALTHY, ACCELERATING BULLISH CHANNEL since March, following the exact same cycle :
1) A Quarterly 3-figures Bull Run (800% compounded YTD) that penetrates at least ONE fib level F
2) A 40% retracement from the second fib level F+1 to the fib level F-1, just between the SMA 100 & 150
I would like to confirm that it follows the last 9 month an Elliott Waves (currently ended wave 5?) & allowing ABC corrective waves. * Please correct me if i am wrong! *
-- LAST 3-MONTHS--
We are now at the consolidation phase for the (1) last bull run, started the 14th September. There are two opposites scenarios :
Scénario 1) BTC Return To 5K : RSI and MACD divergence both indicate strong bearish reversal signal et the major 8000 level ! A last quarter retracement would push BTC at the 6100 and then 5000 levels.
Scénario 2) BTC Continue To 10K : Since last week BTC price forms a Bullish Flag consolidation just below the 8000 level. that indicates upward support. Also BTC is not so overbought and DMI/MACD can support further upward movements. At the time i am writing BTC has broken the 8000 level & breakout the symetrical triangle & Bollinger squeeze at 4H and 1H.
-- WHAT AM I DOING FOR NEW YEAR ?--
* Scénario 1) Track a bounce or a penetration at the 6100 level ; then Look for reversal signs & patterns Double / Triple tops / H&S ; Be prepared to BUY between 6100 and 5000 levels.
* Scénario 2) Confirm 8000 level breakout at 4H ; Wait for a consolidation of the price at the Mid-8000's and track the next reversal SHORT or bull confirmation to open LONG.
PS: BTC is still fundamentaly strong : both as reserve of value for Institutionnal investors and as a reference for newcomers. I am not surprised for a Christmas at 10K