As this bear market has played out over the past few months, it has conformed pretty closely to a classic Wycokff Accumulation pattern.
In the above chart, we see the Selling Climax (SC) at the end of January, followed by a bounce called the Automatic Reaction (AR), before a Secondary Test on Feb 24. A zig-zag correction up to $48k at the end of March set the zone of future resistance (Wychoff Creek), before total capitulation in an historic 9 straight weeks of price declines down to a Spring low of $25.3k on May 12.
The logical conclusion is that we should be facing a period of price recovery, however, the truth is more subtle. For instance, you will note that the price action since the Spring of May 12 has echoed in fractal reflection on a smaller timescale, the SC, AR, ST and corrective rally to define resistance. So, it may be entirely possible that we are in the midst of another smaller accumulation zone, soon to be resolved in a new low. The only thing that will deter this outcome is if price continues to post gains and gets above $32.4k and keeps its uptrend of higher-lows.
A break to a lower-low below $29.2k and $28k would place us on track for a Spring low back below $25.3k.
What do you think? Is it a continuation of the uptrend from here, or a break to a new bear market low in another, final capitulation event?
In the above chart, we see the Selling Climax (SC) at the end of January, followed by a bounce called the Automatic Reaction (AR), before a Secondary Test on Feb 24. A zig-zag correction up to $48k at the end of March set the zone of future resistance (Wychoff Creek), before total capitulation in an historic 9 straight weeks of price declines down to a Spring low of $25.3k on May 12.
The logical conclusion is that we should be facing a period of price recovery, however, the truth is more subtle. For instance, you will note that the price action since the Spring of May 12 has echoed in fractal reflection on a smaller timescale, the SC, AR, ST and corrective rally to define resistance. So, it may be entirely possible that we are in the midst of another smaller accumulation zone, soon to be resolved in a new low. The only thing that will deter this outcome is if price continues to post gains and gets above $32.4k and keeps its uptrend of higher-lows.
A break to a lower-low below $29.2k and $28k would place us on track for a Spring low back below $25.3k.
What do you think? Is it a continuation of the uptrend from here, or a break to a new bear market low in another, final capitulation event?
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