I have already mentioned the probability of Bitcoin reprinting the November fractal, but since the price convincingly broke above the 4H MA50 today and the pattern is playing out so far exactly, I thought it would be a good time for a short update.
So Fractal A and Fractal B are clear on your chart. So are their similarities. The price is initially rising with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting until it makes a First Top (red arrow). Then the 4H MA50 breaks and BTC makes a Double Bottom slightly above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). The rebound that follows is strong enough to break above the 4H MA50 and make a Double Top, which then turns the price action sideways into a lengthy consolidation until the market finds new buyers.
At least that is what took place in November. At the moment BTCUSD is reproducing the exact same structure and is very close to that previous Top (red arrow). If it fails to break it, does that mean that we have at least two weeks of consolidation ahead of us until the next Higher High sequence? It is possible. That is in line with a potential longer consolidation that my recent study on the 1D time-frame shows:
On the shorter term (i.e. the 1H chart), the picture gets even clearer, as Bitcoin is trading within a Channel Up whose Higher High is exactly within the Resistance Zone (of the Top) (see chart below):
I have to note at this point that the LMACD on the 4H chart is lower than where it was on Fractal's A respective point. That could mean that this time the new Fractal has more buying strength behind as a Double Top on the LMACD should have BTC much higher than its previous top.
What do you think is going to happen? Double Top and consolidation or straight into a new High? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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That's a good case for holding above 30k, and I hope you're right. But it looks very fragile to me, with the daily RSI rejected at resistance and the daily MACD having crossed bearish. So, a potential ABC correction could be in play, with a (hopeful) bottom around 28.2k to retest the daily 50MA. The weekly 21MA and the daily 200MA are also looming large on some significant Fibonacci levels though.
Thanks for the analysis ! While it would be a dream to repeat the fractal, and it would totally blow my mind about BTC, it's done trick after trick after trick. Just wiped out a potential head and shoulders pattern, formed a double bottom, broke out of it, and now is in my opinion a very aggressive ascending wedge, i literally have no idea what's going to happen, it feels perhaps like whale manipulation, but i am watching the ascending wedge closely forming from the double bottom break out, who knows wild ride to say the least
TS: Hello! I'm glad to see that you've made a very interesting analysis. At present, the suppression of the red resistance line above is very effective. If we continue to break through, it is bound to cause the golden fork of MACD day line to appear, which is very bullish.