WyckoffMode

Still Experiencing Downward Pressure Obviously; See Explanation.

Short
WyckoffMode Updated   
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
The Red RSI in the 6h came close enough to the 50 level before the White Energy in the 3h closed above the 50 level. If you were unsure of downward pressure continuing because the Red RSI in the 6h did not quite cross below 50 "before" the White Energy in the 3h closed "above" 50, you could simply go to a lower time frame (such as the 90 minute) to see if the White Energy was higher than the Green Line. In this case, the White Energy in the 90 minute was substantially higher than the Green Line; which indicated downward pressure was likely to continue. This also meant we ignore the White Energy in the 3h and focus on the White Energy in the 6h along with the Red RSI in the 12h; as explained in the video.

BOTTOM LINE: We are waiting for a point in time when the White Energy in the lower time frame can close above 50 well in advance before the Red RSI in the next "doubled" higher time frame can cross "below" 50 before we can feel more confident a reversal to sustained upward pressure has a higher likelihood of coming to fruition.

Stay Awesome!

David
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Already looking like the White Energy in the 6h will NOT "close" above 50 "before" the Red RSI in the 12h can "cross" below 50. Which means downward pressure will stay with us still for quite a while yet. Yes, we may see a bounce up soon but do not assume downward pressure is over.

6h (left) and 12h (right):
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We have approximately 11 hours remaining in the current 12 hour candle. If the Red RSI has closed below 50 on the current 12h candle, it would be time to focus on the White Energy in the 12h and the Red RSI in the 24h using the same rules that we used for the 6h and 12h.
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It was important to remember the White Energy in the Daily being substantially above the Green Line was what "triggered" us to have a close look at the 12h, 6h and 3h. It was because of what we were seeing in the Daily (24h) that we were breaking down in more detail what we were seeing in the 12h, 6h and 3h. We were anticipating a drop. We simply did not know AT THE TIME how significant of a drop it may or may not be. However, as a "Day Trader," we must assume the worst and trade accordingly with the PROPER percentage of our crypto and/or cash holdings.

We must become a Day Trader In order for us to avoid beating ourselves up over the head for missing out on a drop like this. Does this mean we should have sold every coin we had at that particular time? No...

I still contend we should have 70 to 80 percent of our holdings OFF EXCHANGE. When did we "accumulate" this crypto that we have taken OFF EXCHANGE in large amounts? Accumulation SHOULD have taken place December, 2018 through March, 2019. At which point, we took 70 to 80 percent OFF EXCHANGE (per my recommendation) and kept the remaining 20 to 30 percent on the exchange.

Let's assume one has the TIME to Day Trade and has adhered to my recommendation to keep 20 to 30 percent of their holdings on exchange for the purpose of Day Trading. This means they are Day Trading with the Group of Time Frames I recommend for Short Term Time Frames (90m, 3h, 6h and 12h). They may also be High Time Frame Scalping when market conditions allow it i.imgur.com/okxda20.png but let's keep it simple and say they are only using the Short Term Time Frame Group (90m, 3h, 6h and 12h) when "Day Trading." If your 20 to 30 percent left on the exchange is in fact enough to move the market substantially on this particular pair (BTCUSD), this would require more discussion entirely. For the sake of time and keeping it simple, let's assume your 20 to 30 percent is NOT enough to move the market substantially.

BOTTOM LINE #1:

In order for us to avoid beating ourselves up over the head about missing this current push downward, we MUST become several different TYPES of trader. ALL of us SHOULD be an "Investor" with 70 to 80 percent of our capital (My opinion). Some may choose to be an "Investor" with only 50 percent of their capital and "Day Trade" with the other 50% rather than "Day Trade" with the remaining 20 to 30 percent I have suggested. This is usually the case with someone who does not have enough capital to MOVE THE MARKET the way a Market Maker would.

BOTTOM LINE #2: Continued in the next post following within the hour. Please wait until I've responded entirely...
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BOTTOM LINE #2:

In order for us to avoid beating ourselves up over the head about missing this current push downward, we MUST sell our 20 to 30 percent of Bitcoin left on the exchange when the indicators dictated for us to do so in the 3h, 6h and 12h time frames. However, If our 20 to 30 percent of Bitcoin left on the exchange could easily move the market substantially, we must RE-DISTRIBUTE. Meaning, we should have used whatever amount of Bitcoin required to purchase reliable and promising Alt Coins.

What do I mean by, "...whatever amount of Bitcoin Required..." when purchasing reliable and promising alt coins? We would need to determine the amount of Bitcoin we could sell without moving the market substantially and use the remaining bitcoin to purchase other reliable and promising alt coins. Which means our "Day Trading" responsibilities have grown from not only trading BTCUSD; but also trading alt coin pairs; such as, ADAUSDT, LINKUSDT, etc... You don't want to spread yourself too thin with too many coins to keep up with. If your capital is so large that you require DISTRIBUTING your capital across a multitude of crypto currencies, you will require BOTS to assist you with your buying and selling. That is a whole other subject entirely and not for this current discussion.

BOTTOM LINE #3:

It's IMPORTANT to have a trading strategy planned when using my indicators. My indicators can help us become well versed and an expert in ANALYTICS. However, my indicators cannot help us become an expert in TRADING STRATEGY. I know several who are successful when it comes to trading strategy but they could become even more successful if they honed their skills in ANALYTICS. I know several who are very good when it comes to ANALYTICS but they could become even more successful if they worked harder at creating a TRADING STRATEGY (Plan of Attack).

Becoming a well versed expert with my indicators is an important goal we should all strive to achieve. Creating and implementing an impressive trading strategy in conjunction with the indicators is a totally different beast to overcome.

BOTTOM LINE #4: Continued in the next post following within the hour. Please wait until I've responded entirely...
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BOTTOM LINE #4:

Becoming an expert with my indicators is of paramount importance in order to be CONFIDENT. The only way that CONFIDENCE will grow is by EXPERIENCE using my indicators. It's just as important to create rules for money management and risk management. If we cannot manage our money and risk properly, it does not matter how good we are with ANALYTICS. The reason I'm discussing this is because of what just played out with the price action for BTCUSD. Some may have missed this price movement downward completely. If you have missed it, you may consider this as an opportunity to use some Bitcoin to purchase LINK, ADA or some other reliable and promising alt coin. I'm talking especially to those who may have enough bitcoin to substantially move the market if they were to sell the 20 to 30 percent they still have on the exchange. If you're actually a small whale, you may also need to DISTRIBUTE Bitcoin and/or Alt Coins to other exchanges.

BOTTOM LINE #5:

KNOW what Trading TYPE(s) you have the "TIME" for! If we do not have the "TIME" to be a Day Trader at ANY point in time, we should not beat ourselves up mentally if we missed this drop in price action. Even if we are a Mid Term Time Frame Trend Trader who mainly focuses on the 3-Day, 6-Day, 9-Day and 12-Day for our trading; there WILL come a time in which it is DEMANDED of you to become a Day Trader if you want to avoid beating yourself up mentally for missing a trade. This particular downward move in the price action is a prime example. This simply means you are "NOT" a FULL TIME DAY TRADER. You become a "Day Trader" only at points in which the indicators dictate it is TIME to potentially avoid missing out on a trade. This was one of those particular times because of the signal with the White Energy being higher than the Green Line in the Daily Time Frame (right of center). Also, the White Energy in the Weekly (far right) had crossed below 50.


A "FULL TIME" Day Trader has the "TIME" to engage in all the following trade TYPES: Continued within the hour in the next post.
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Long Term Trend Trading (LTTT) - “Investor”:
Time frames typically used to provide signals for LTTT: Weekly, 2-Week, 3-Week and 4-Week time frames. However, higher time frames will be used to assist with determining the beginning, end and/or length of a long term “investment” trend for the “investor.”
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in LTTT: Two (2) trades every 3 to 36 months. Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in the commonly used “groups” of time frames.
Capital Safeguards for LTTT: Taking your crypto off exchange is a must for this “type” of trader (investor) in order to protect your capital in the event of an exchange hack or banking crisis. I’m of the opinion you should have 70 to 80 percent of your capital used for investment and keep your crypto off exchange while leaving 20 to 30 percent of your capital on the exchange for the “type(s)” of trading you have time for exercising. If your exchange is hacked and you lose all your capital on the exchange, you should have kept your loss to no more than 20 to 30 percent because you should have kept the remaining 70 to 80 percent of your capital OFF EXCHANGE. Of course, this does not apply to you if you are only in crypto for investment purposes with absolutely no other types of trading. Which means you would keep 100% of your crypto OFF EXCHANGE.
Percentage of capital used for LTTT: 70 to 80 Percent and should be kept OFF EXCHANGE as often as possible.

Mid Term Trend Trading (MTTT):
Time frames typically used to provide signals for MTTT: Two (2) different “groups” of time frames. Those groups are as follows: 2-Day, 4-Day, 6-Day and 8-Day Group and the 3-Day, 6-Day, 9-Day and 12-Day Group.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in MTTT: Two (2) trades every 1 to 18 weeks. Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in those commonly used “groups” of time frames.
Capital Safeguards for MTTT: Taking your crypto off exchange is optional for this “type” of trader because I’m of the opinion you should already have 70 to 80 percent of your crypto off exchange while leaving 20 to 30 percent of your capital on the exchange for the “type(s)” of trading you have time for exercising. If your exchange is hacked and you lose all your capital on the exchange, you should have kept your loss to no more than 30 percent because you should have kept the remaining 70 percent minimum of your capital OFF EXCHANGE.
Percentage of capital used for MTTT: 10 to 30 Percent; based on the amount of “time” you have to trade.
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Near Term Trend Trading (NTTT):
Time frames typically used to provide signals for NTTT: Daily (24h), 2-Day, 3-Day and 4-Day time frames.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in NTTT: Two (2) trades every 24 hours to 16-Days. Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in those commonly used time frames in the higher groups of time frames.
Capital Safeguards for NTTT: Taking your crypto off exchange is optional for this “type” of trader but not recommended because you may not be able to get your crypto back on the exchange soon enough to engage with your trade in an efficient and timely manner. REMEMBER: I’m of the opinion you should already have 70 to 80 percent of your crypto off exchange while leaving 20 to 30 percent of your capital on the exchange for the “type(s)” of trading you have time for exercising. If your exchange is hacked and you lose all your capital on the exchange, you should have kept your loss to no more than 30 percent because you should have kept the remaining 70 percent minimum of your capital OFF EXCHANGE.
Percentage of capital used for NTTT: 10 to 30 Percent.

Short Term Trend Trading (STTT):
Time frames typically used to provide signals for STTT: Two (2) different “groups” of time frames. Those groups are as follows: 2h, 4h, 6h and 8h Group and the 90m, 3h, 6h and 12h Group.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in STTT: Two (2) trades every 4 hours to 4-Days. Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in those commonly used time frames in the higher groups of time frames.
Capital Safeguards for STTT: Taking your crypto off exchange is not recommended because you may not be able to get your crypto back on the exchange soon enough to engage with your trade in an efficient and timely manner. REMEMBER: I’m of the opinion you should already have 70 to 80 percent of your crypto off exchange while leaving 20 to 30 percent of your capital on the exchange for the “type(s)” of trading you have time for exercising. If your exchange is hacked and you lose all your capital on the exchange, you should have kept your loss to no more than 30 percent because you should have kept the remaining 70 percent minimum of your capital OFF EXCHANGE.
Percentage of capital used for STTT: 10 to 30 Percent.
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High Time Frame Scalping - (HTFS): NOTE: SIGNALS WILL NOT BE PROVIDED FOR LOW TIME FRAME SCALPING EXCEPT DURING LIVE STREAMS IN THE FUTURE.
Time frames typically used to provide signals for HTFS: Two (2) different “groups” of time frames. Those groups are as follows: 15m, 30m, 60m and 120m Group and the 30m, 60m, 120m and 240m Group. This type of trading is often done with margin trading because the price movement is often large enough to cover the trading fees under the right market conditions. It’s important the proper market conditions are present before conducting this type of scalping. The correct market conditions are often determined by how much “noise” is within the indicators in the two “groups” of time frames.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in HTFS: Two (2) trades every 30 minutes to as high as 48 hours. Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in those commonly used time frames and the Short Term Group of time frames. It also depends on if we had a trailing stop engaged after we are clearly in profit. Which is why our second trade to exit and/or reverse position could last as long as 48 hours before my trailing stop is finally triggered; my market sell is automatically implemented and I begin a new position to the reverse if the indicators are favorable. Sometimes, we have to be patient and wait after a trailing stop is triggered to allow the indicators to show us a more obvious directional pressure signal before opening another position.
Capital Safeguards for HTFS: Taking your crypto off exchange is not recommended because you may not be able to get your crypto back on the exchange soon enough to engage with your trade in an efficient and timely manner. REMEMBER: I’m of the opinion you should already have 70 to 80 percent of your crypto off exchange while leaving 20 to 30 percent of your capital on the exchange for the “type(s)” of trading you have time for exercising. If your exchange is hacked and you lose all your capital on the exchange, you should have kept your loss to no more than 30 percent because you should have kept the remaining 70 percent minimum of your capital OFF EXCHANGE.
Percentage of capital used for HTFS: 5 to 10 Percent for HTFS and/or LTFS. What percentage is used for this type of trading also depends on whether or not you are engaged in other types of trading previously listed. For instance, you may have 20% of your trading capital put aside for Short Term Trend Trading (STTT) and use the other 10% of your capital on exchange when you have the time and/or see conditions are ripe for High Time Frame Scalping (HTFS) or Low Time Frame Scalping (LTFS).
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Low Time Frame Scalping - (LTFS): NOTE: SIGNALS WILL NOT BE PROVIDED FOR LOW TIME FRAME SCALPING EXCEPT DURING LIVE STREAMS.
Time frames typically used to provide signals for LTFS: Two (2) different “groups” of time frames. Those groups are as follows: 3m, 6m, 12m and 24m Group and the 5m, 10m, 20m and 60m Group. This type of trading is often done with margin trading because the price movement is often large enough to cover the trading fees under the right market conditions. It’s important the proper market conditions are present before conducting this type of scalping. The correct market conditions are often determined by how much “noise” is within the indicators in the two “groups” of time frames.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in LTFS: Two (2) trades every 15 minutes to as high as 12 hours. Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in those commonly used time frames and the Short Term Group of time frames. It also depends on if we had a trailing stop engaged after we are clearly in profit. Which is why our second trade to exit and/or reverse position could last as long as 48 hours before my trailing stop is finally triggered; my market sell is automatically implemented and I begin a new position to the reverse if the indicators are favorable. Sometimes, we have to be patient and wait after a trailing stop is triggered to allow the indicators to show us a more obvious directional pressure signal before opening another position.
Capital Safeguards for LTFS: Taking your crypto off exchange is not recommended because you may not be able to get your crypto back on the exchange soon enough to engage with your trade in an efficient and timely manner. REMEMBER: I’m of the opinion you should already have 70 to 80 percent of your crypto off exchange while leaving 20 to 30 percent of your capital on the exchange for the “type(s)” of trading you have time for exercising. If your exchange is hacked and you lose all your capital on the exchange, you should have kept your loss to no more than 30 percent because you should have kept the remaining 70 percent minimum of your capital OFF EXCHANGE.
Percentage of capital used for LTFS: 5 to 10 Percent for HTFS and/or LTFS. What percentage is used for this type of trading also depends on whether or not you are engaged in other types of trading previously listed. For instance, you may have 20% of your trading capital put aside for Short Term Trend Trading (STTT) and use the other 10% of your capital on exchange when you have the time and/or see conditions are ripe for High Time Frame Scalping (HTFS) or Low Time Frame Scalping (LTFS).
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BOTTOM LINE #6:

If we wish to be more involved trading rather than a simple investor who might make one trade every 2 to 4 years, we MUST be prepared to get involved as a Day Trader at some point during our aspiration of being a Day Trader. Does this mean we would be a FULL TIME Day Trader? No...

If we do NOT take the time to analyze multiple groups of time frames to determine the POSSIBILITY of a downturn in price action and ACT on what we see in the indicators by trading accordingly (just in case), we should not beat ourselves up mentally for missing a trade. We should simply LEARN from it and be diligent to avoid it occurring again.
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