Since we didn't get any bounce since the brutal drop on the 20th, the chances unfortunately are increasing that we'll see a scenario that is quite unpleasant.
The 4300 level is not only the linear support line in the log chart all the way back to 2015, which many noobs think is the ultimate support line, where BTC cannot break through. It can and it will, but the question is when.
If it breaks through within the next days, without bouncing, this will be very bearish and BTC will take the red path, the brutal path of darkness, which leads to the next lowest support level. This support level is a historical support level, which goes back to the ATH of 2013 at 1200. I think BTC might then briefly touch that support and then bounce around 1500-2500 for the rest of 2019, until in early 2020, it will slowly start rising. I know, unpleasant. I don't like it myself, but BTC sometimes likes to do things we don't like, so that only the worthy will remain in BTC and be rewarded for the torment they had to endure (I endured a lot of torment back in 2014/15 as well).
Of course we all like the blue path better. I hope too that it will materialize, a shorter bearmarket, starting the slow rise already a few months earlier, at the end of 2019, and "only" going as low as 3k.
Let's see what BTC will do, but at the moment it looks more like the red path, since no bounce at all is to be seen. WE NEED A MIRACLE NOW !
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It's barely hanging in there. Let's see if BTC can manage to hold the support. It must make a strong bounce, else we'll take the red route.
And I don't see any scenario where we'd go to 3k, and immediately have a bullrun starting. That's not how bearmarkets end. It will range a while before attempting a new bullrun, this means a long period of sideways action, in the best case.
Worst case is a sell-off to 1200, then ranging from 1500-2500 for a year before the next bullmarket can start.
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Well, here we go. The bounce looked weak, and lo and behold, indeed we go down. Weekly MA200 is the target at around 3000.
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And that means that the probability for the red path is very very high. We'll bounce today, it will be an epic bounce, and then a few months of apparent stabilization. But then the final drop in february-may. It will hit somewhere in the range 1200-1500. This will be a once in a lifetime chance to see BTC at these prices.
I predicted BTC would drop to 4200. Heres what I think will happen next.
TradeIndicators
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Our perspective on where we will go from a 17/18 win rate. Thanks for the TA you have our "Like"!
Amjadsid
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The only reason price stay here b/w 4500- 4000$ is because Weekly Down wave complete here:
farzinsabbagh
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Victorwu88
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if the btc crash down to $1000 so quickly, you won't dare to buy, bc the whole ecosystem will be destroyed and definitely all the efforts for ETF will be in vain! then game over
TheCryptAlpha
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it should hold, This trend line is more important than the $6000 level we have sat on for 6 months. We might just have a spike down before we launch. to shake all the weak hands out
SebastianofMoon
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@TheCryptAlpha, I hope so as well. But the bounce until now looks so weak. If it goes down to 3k directly from here, I don't think we'll see a direct launch, more like a ranging from 1500-3000 for a whole year. At least that is my view based on what BTC mostly likes to do, and personal experience. A direct launch would be weird.
I said this before 9 months.