unspecial

Fakey pattern on Bitcoin Daily chart.

Long
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
A Fakey is where a false breakout occurs after an inside bar breakout. First it breaks out in one direction before reversing and running in the opposite direction. Very much like a dump and buy the stops. This works well when a run has run for a long time. Most traders are already onboard in the direction of the trend so not a lot of stops get hit in the fake breakout. A lot of bulls had already capitulated 3 days beforehand - see BTCUSDLONGS . Market sentiment is shown by comparing with BTCUSDSHORTS but the real value lies in using this to interpret how many stops are in the market. A run up in prices also started on Feb 6th which was 2 days after a big drop in BTCUSDLONGS . Is that market manipulation?

The real question now is how far will this run. I don't know but I expect resistance at 7250 (The high of the outside bar). This is also the low from March 18th where support became resistance. If we break above 7250 we could see a trend change and 6425 become the higher low (from the 6000 low).

Comment: snapshot of rising longs.
Comment: Fakey pattern also on the 4hr chart. (Marked by the airplane symbol) I've never found the fakey patern to have any value on time frames smaller than 4hrs. The bigger the time frame the more value it has. Look at the money flow indicator at the bottom of this chart. Next stop 50K.

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