I'm really just using chart patterns and compare % gains from top gainers of the last cycle again but apply the exception here that somewhow, someone or a group started buying crypto in masses "too early" and too aggressively. Based on that theory, we might have the first altseason already behind us.
Top chart is BTCUSD.
Middle Chart is DASH/USD and ETH/USD (pretty much the top gainer of the last cycle which is why I use them to compare it to LINK here).
Bottom Chart is LINKUSD.
All scaled in 7D, no wick-candles on a log-basis.
The colored circles represent the same phase of the cycle each.
Grey: Bottom/accumulation phase. Mostly sideways, alts suffer.
Orange: first breakout, new monthly high on btc chart, alts blooming for the first time in the cycle (the very first altseason after it got clear that a bull cycle starts).
Red: Consolidation/sideways. BTC is hestitating close to the ATH of last cycle. It has yet to confirm that we won't see a but new higher highs. Alts suffer here because people go from alts to btc and people in btc start to take profits in usd (risk off).
Green: Market shows strength. BTC breaks above it's last cycles ATH , altcoins soar aggressively as btc people go back to alts and on top of that new money entered BTC and alts 'because muh new highs'. 2nd big altseason with absolute crazy gains.
Blue line is the ATH from last cycle, extended to the new cycle. Once price broke that (or actually shortly before that) alts go havoc.
Pink arrows show the performance %-wise of ETH, Dash in last cycle and ETH, Dash and LINK in the current cycle.
What I think "went wrong" this time, is that the grey phase got cut off by someone or a group buying in way earlier than it "should've been" aka what would be typical. The sideways phase on btc usually went on longer with each new cycle and the phase of this current cycle was only about half the length of last cycle
No idea why... maybe because stocks are peak bubble territory? maybe because governments with weak FIAT currencies started buy BTC as a hedge?`no idea.
But with that sudden breakout that made BTC go from 3.5k to 14k within a few weeks, alts had their first significant run already. (not eth... not dash) but the quality alts (LINK) had an actual proper run and if you compare it to the ETH and Dash run in the first altseason 2016, the magnitude of growth was equal (2000% vs 1850%). It's just that "the old" altcoins didn't have the same massive runup they had last cycle, but that also makes sense. The theory of log regression saying that with every nhew cycle the growth declines/diminishes and the jump from 2000% to 300% at next cycle makes sense (limited to a single altseason here not the full bullcycle).
So LINK being the top performer who also led the altseason, might have had 'that first altseason' already which would invalidate my target of LINK reaching 1500$ at peak speculative bubble/bullmarket.
Just like my first projection, I will project the % of the 2nd altseason of Dash and ETH to Chainlink here. +17,000%. Which would bring LINK to "only" 335$ per token and a marketcap of 117bn (not even touching ETH or XRP peak marketcap of last cycle (bummer).
But it would also mean that we are right in that 2nd altseason at the moment. How could that be? My previuous assumption was that the 2nd altseason only starts happening if BTC price coming close to it's ATH , looking like it will break it soon.
Well looking more carefully, the altcoins ETH and Dash both started super early.. to be precise, they started running already when BTC was at about 750$. That is more than 40% away from the peak of 1100$ per BTC (need to go 40% up from here to reach ATH )
Now, of course we are much further away from the peak right now than just 40%, but then again we had a much bigger and higher first breakout in this cycle... 14k was the peak, with a consolidation/bleed to 9k over a few weeks.
The sideways action from mid may to mid july now is actually "only" about a 90% rise away from the ATH (which in crypto is really not much and again, regarding the much bigger and higher breakout, I think it makes sense that alts would frontrun the altseason even earlier than they did in last cycle.. so 90% away from ATH instead of 40% away like last time.. it is absolutely possible.
Now, if thats true, then this current altseason would bring ETH beyond $2,500$ easily and Chainlink would have a continuation run to about $300 range within the next 8-12 months. Sounds super crazy, but that kind of performance in such short timespan is absolutely not special in crypto and for a project of the magnitue Chainlink is. LINK has shown that it can be the top performing coin over a 2.5 year time span so it would make sense that LINK will also be top performer in this 2nd altseason. "The big one". The one that people get rekt and get FOMO with the most... the huge irrational runup where everyone be like "it went up too much with no news, it will correct, I'm gonna short/sell here".
The parabolic breakout for ETH and LINK really just started few weeks back at $250 ETH and $4.50 LINK. Everything before that was and will look just like sideways action pretty much. New crypto people that got into crypto after 2018 haven't seen shit yet. Other top performers with about the same magnitude of price increase are probably LEND, BNT, BZRX and DMG imo . Reasoning for that on my twitter timoharings.
So yeah, thats my 'bearish' case for Chainlink. LINK would hit $335 in 2021 instead of the $1500 in 2022/23. Invalidation of that theory would be if BTC goes basically sideways for another 6 months here.
Let me know what you think in the comments!