What's new on Bitcoin? There is simple answer: Market is in pure uptrend for 18 days and respect 0.5 fibonacci what makes BTC's momentum positive. There are triangle patterns, both are bullush for me because of candle trends showing direction declaration. Just couple of hours ago We experienced classic bear trap, where candle crossed support but closed above.
Stop loss below support of bigger triangle formation (number one) would be highly secure bet.
I use Bitfinex chart because of specific behaviour at this exchange happened where bigger triangle formation was retested at both edges with just few second-ticks. Based on this all data I have prepared Bitcoin's weather forecast. Wind shall weaken over time giving price the last chance to atleast $ 9767 push up. Major support and resistance explained on 1D chart:
My previous analysis:
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Stop loss hasn't triggered yet, price declared more accumulation in triangle pattern. Shade of Bull is visable in decent bear traps at dips.
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0.5 fibonacci level to watch
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Last rocket arrow, later momentum will start falling attracting the price to re-visit support and pour a lot more fear.
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Attention! Long position is in danger! Short term inverted H&S invalidation shown first sign of weakness ! 1hr chart
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Gaining positive momentum by crossing 0.5 fibo from downside and tending to solve the triangle pattern!
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Rocket now or fakeout!
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TP 1 reached:
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0.618 fibo is not needed to regain power, it is what wind forces say to me, barely exceptional
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Price has been sailing against wind since last rally above 9767 resistance. I expect correction. 1hr chart
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double top, I see gentle correction and buy opportunity 1hr chart
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Entrance point filled 1hr chart
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Momentum has fallen, We are close to the axis of triangle formation. This axis is calculated from 0.5 fibonacci of triangle pattern. I would use this as second entry level. All for all BTC is less likely to start bearish winter again. Since media is boosting the price, there is no bubble burst anymore. 4hr chart
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This is how my own buisness plan looks like so far. I give it 1 more extra dip before We know if We turn bear or there is chance for higher levels. 4hr chart
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on 5min chart there is small bull trap, I believe there were a lot of foolish bears caught...
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I see Bitcoin breaking through minor resistance and showing power in huge bear traps. Axis of triangle pattern has been retested and provided opportunity for discounted coin. 1hr chart
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Bitcoin view updated. Correction is so strong and volatile, that provides bullish aspect. After rain of blood recover will be astonishing. Current channel is gently and definately not bearish, Bitfinex kiss still has a lot of fuel. 4hr chart
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3rd entry, the last. Stop loss under channel 4hr chart
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Channel support confirmed, long position is safe.
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BTC 1hr EMA 50 good play
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EMA 50 tested again, very positive sign. I expect rally to 10k levels atleast. Breaking channel will not mark trend. I think there is coming something bigger, We will soon make some meaningful step. 1hr chart
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You ask me, why slip now? Well, volume continues to fall, so price will follow until big buyers decide to put cards on the table.Retesting channel is very possible for W pattern, it means You have to work ... on swings ;) If We investigate into 4hr chart there could some hint appear where EMA 50 on 4hr time frame was broke down again and tends to kiss it from bottom. Soon I think there will be more clear information coming out from this chart and I could start developing strategy. 4hr chart
Trade closed: stop reached
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This is not short, could bounce from 8666 level, BTC entered into tough zone.
I like this. We are in an uptrend. Simple retraces but always higher highs. Once its back at 9.7k IMO it will break 10k with more long orders triggered
@pinfkloyd, Considering two rejections at the MA200, what is your feeling/analysis re BTC breaking through this time?
pinfkloyd
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@Cryptolomist, current volume is not able to drag this high, IMO there is high possibility fot SMA200 crossover, but still in fakeout meaning unless proper volume confirms reversal.
fsd174
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Your predictions were not correct this time
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@fsd174, My prediction is mainly supported by long term view. Although I set up long position, I was prepared for tough phase. Now I need to see what happens to 8666 support and then fix my 1D chart tools. Short term is always about gambling. Even if BTC drops now, I think there is very high possibility to revisit 10k levels in not that far future.