I believe that Since today this scenario shall be treated ad the main one with a probability around 70%.
P.S. Please do not be confused. This is not pure Elliott Wave Analysis. This analysis is based on my fork of Elliot theory. The simplified concept of this fork is published here: plus.google.com/102703249206977009572/posts/Sc1MCdZiWNR
Its definitely a bearish scenario, but even if they happens, chances are were going to continue to bounce back up to 8700 region first
szozulya
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@PaulsCrypticMine, Maybe you are right. Today BTC just crossed down critical point which made this scenario preferable. I'd prefer to wait a couple of days before I say something regarding this matter.