This is the alternate theory. Posting here to see how well or bad it does. The current break up is a clean break in trend, and we are officially uptrend. You should be longing 8000 and 7700. However if those break down, then this may not be the much talked about "spring".
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Phase C in a wyckoff is a bulltrap. Keep that in mind.
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As expected, bounce off the 7800 ish levels. It never did get to 7700. I expect this to test the daily MA and then start dropping back down.
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So looks like Tradingview cut out most of my chart, posting a screenshot here:
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I learnt a lot about Wyckoff and trading in general from @prowdclown here is his chart
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As indicated earlier longing 7700 and 8000 was the game plan - we start shorting anything above 8500. Sell zone clearly shown in the chart.
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When you see a 450 million liquidation, its best to sit on the side and wait. Lets wait. 6.8 is support.
Trade closed: target reached
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wait & watch
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I am now looking to go long at 6.8 or below. If the chart plays out we will see a bottom soon. Weekly is a strong buy signal. However weekly signals dont capture price levels. Know your supports levels.
I want to clarify here. Weekly is signalling a buy signal i have never seen on bitcoin. Ever. Not during mt gox, not before, not after. The issue with weekly is that we dont know what price will be bottom, however all indicators point to an upcoming bull-run. Alts are at 90%+ discounts.
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Another view of the cleaned up chart .... if these two rectangles are not buy zones then i may as well give up trading. We are in buy zone #1
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Looks like this chart is playing out now. My other setups are all invalidated. This is a pretty scary chart.
This is right. The only gotcha is that your trend line at the top is wrong. You have the second peak touching it. If you check the daily chart with a 200MA, you will see why the second hump never hit the trendline. Pull your trend line back into the largest hump area (back into 2017). Once a trendline, always a trend line. It will show price rejection and support in other places further back. That will help you confirm your trendline going forward. The point is that we were rejected from that trend line. It had only a minor breach on the first few candles of the tip. You'll find the rest of the hump was rejected multiple time off that trendline on smaller time frames.
It is a long-term key structural trend line. We should not be surprised that we could not pass it. You will find that price has been rejected from this line 7 times. We crossed it only 4 and it required a lot of momentum and volume to do it, something in very short supply right now.
Otherwise, I think this is perfectly correct. We are on the backside of the third hump in a three hump cycle. The SC point went very deep into the structure and has thrown many off on their TA. So they did not see this bear run coming. Luckily, it will be short, probably a month. But I think you have the bottom out area correct.