Recently I started mentioning that there are a lot of traders who draw a "Cup with Handle" pattern on Bitcoin. I hate to see it. In this idea, I will try to explain WHY there is NO Cup with Handle on Bitcoin chart, in details.
Straight out the gate, I want to remember you that a Cup with Handle is one of the most difficult and rarest patterns from all existing ones. Thus, it will be much easier to find a "Butterfly on cypher" on the Bitcoin chart than a Cup with Handle on a thousand altcoins.
Well, let's talk about criteria for a Cup with Handle pattern!
In order to find a Cup with Handle, we need to track ALL 6 RULES:
1. It is not just a bullish pattern, it is a figure that shows a Continuation of Trend, therefore it can be used only during an up-trend.
2. This pattern can be legit only on large timeframes, the minimum bar duration is 4H. If you look for a Cup with Handle on 1H -2H timeframes, it is a waste of time.
3. The depth of the Cup shouldn't be too big: the depth of 70% -90% of the trend isn't normal at all. Cup is a CORRECTIONAL phase and if this correction is too strong, then a trend can be broken.
4. The handle is a weak rebound from the resistance line. The depth of the handle can't contain more than 50% of the depth of the cup. Ideally, the depth of the handle is 35-40%.
5. As you know - volumes indicate market activity. So, when a correction begins (when the price goes down to form the Cup), volumes should fall. But when the price reaches the resistance zone, volumes should increase, this is a sign that the market activity is increasing too. Thus, volumes form an identical cup shape.
6. Finally, you should buy only after the formation of the Handle.
Let's come back to the BTC chart. We can see only one (the second) rule there. The pattern didn't form during an up-trend. Therefore the first and the third rules are invalid. Everyone forgot about volumes, the fifth rules is invalid too. The sixth rule is invalid too as the majority of traders advise to buy now (at the bottom of the Handle). However, if the crowd of newbie traders believe in this pattern existence, no one will stop them. It's a pity that no one cares about the real TA rules...
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Completely agree with you, it is a pain for my eyes to see ideas about C&H in the TOP of TradingView...
NaturalPatterns
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Thanks.
I hate HS. People spot them All the time, All the time.
I believe one rule i never see in theese so called HS sightings, is volume confirmation, HS pattern in volume as well.
I hate HS.
Plus, the shampoo actually gives me dandruff.
So I avoid them both.
agent474
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Wow, that's an interesting post! So, what will be the next move? Closing the gap or moving higher?