If you followed me for long here on TradingView and on reddit in the past, then you know I am a big supporter of fractal analysis. As a result I had to bring you today's fractal comparison and will explain how it can be invalidated even though so far it has been astonishingly identical.
** Fractal similarities ** First of all, this time I haven't used the log chart, to avoid confusion among people who are not familiar with. The time-frame is on the 1D. I've classified the legs numerically from (a) to (j) (nine in total). As you see Bitcoin has currently completed (h) and is going for a dead-cat bounce to (i). So far it has been replicating the January - May fractal extremely closely. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting (only recently it broke but the price closed back above it), a Higher Lows trend-line of a 45° angle was supporting both fractals until the (g) leg and the Fibonacci retracement levels have been providing Support on the way up. The only minor difference is that the (h) leg has hit the 0.618 Fib while in April it only hit the 0.5 retracement level. Also the RSI is currently at the same level it was when the April fractal was in the middle of the (g)-(h) sequence.
** The difference maker ** So, until now it looks like an excessively identical fractal. However, the big factor that wasn't present in early May and may make all the difference in the world at invalidating the fractal, is the Golden Cross. As you see, this very bullish MA pattern (when the MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the MA200 (orange trend-line) is very close to be formed on this 1D chart. No only BTC wasn't even close to a 1D Golden Cross in late April/ early May but in fact we haven't seen this formation since May 19 2020, so over 1 year ago.
If leg (i) materialized next, then most likely that will form the 1D Golden Cross and that alone can be the difference maker as short-term fractals have to abide to the long-term indicators and the 1D Golden Cross is such. If not, expect the (j) leg to find Support around $38000.
What's your view on that fractal? Do you think it will complete the (j) leg or a potential Golden Cross will invalidate it and break above $53000? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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in the history just after the golden cross we have experienced a massive drop, we may say it was covid at that time, do you think we can experience same scenarios / same fractals now?
civilioe
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@dgtrd, even if there was a drop after the past golden cross but this was just for short time after that BTC formed another new top
So we had a big drop once, dies that really mean it will happen again? Covid was an exceptional circumstance, how is that so hard to understand? How often did a massive drop happen after a golden cross? 30 times?
I don't see it, so there is no pattern.
PedroRolles
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@cd1603, covid was a exceptional circumstance. Yes sure . Never planed and it was evolving in the nature millions years like other viruses. You can live with that mate. All is planned like never before.
Gunslinger2005
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@cd1603, well see what you wanna see. market will show the true true. shit drops all the time without needing covid. most alts still like 10k% up. neva forget how much btc likes to take the path of pain
zach6667
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@dgtrd, Delta is expected to PEAK in October so maybe that makes sense. I hope not.
PedroRolles
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@dgtrd, covid or not covid, main thing is that it dropped ! there are catastrophic disasters planned in the trilions dollars pipeline and if we look at them closely last 20 years then yes it is possible that another wonderful event might be around the corner. We will never know what this massive money could buy , but we surely see that it is not distributed in the real mortar brick world economy and it definitly is not distributed to average people. Anyways ,, too many coincidences and human is smarter nowadays ;)
Gunslinger2005
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days ago calling for 80 to 100k. today posting for a dump. just posting every possible idea so it can be later said you called it eh