Hello there, and welcome to another episode of mixed feelings on Bitcoin!
I present you with a 6 hour candles chart on BTCUSD. In the recent weeks people went from hope to despair, and back and forth a couple of times more. Unfortunately this kept the fomo (fear of missing out) and fud (fear, uncertainty, doubt) alive, without Bitcoin really committing to a more clear bearish (sub 7k) or bullish path (over 10k) for the near future.
The RSI is showing some divergence. Although the last couple of weeks have been pretty bearish all over, the lows on the RSI are getting less low and the RSI is pinching in a pennant shape on the 6h and 1d time frames. The EMA isn't looking that great, but the 20 and 50 have moved a bit closer towards each other, especially on the lower time frames. The volume has been decreasing in the last couple of days, matching the general feeling of indecisiveness and the pennant on the RSI I mentioned. However I must note that March has seen a massive volume increase compared to the first two months of the year and that is our silver lining: although most traders still feel somewhat bearish or doubtful, they appear to be eager to get back at it and haven't discarded Bitcoin or cryptocurrency as a lost cause.
For the coming days I suspect Bitcoin will probably decline a bit more and test $7800, maybe $7250, but I do feel more bullish for the weeks that follow and give BTC a good chance to bounce up from either of those price points. As always Bitcoin is very sensitive to big news that influences market sentiment in a positive or negative way so that will absolutely remain a big factor of importance to the trend. In case negative news pushes it further down it could test $6800 or even the $5873 February low.
You can use this chart to help you identify trend lines & support and resistance zones to monitor for break in trends. Personally I only enter trades after I witness a break confirmation and set layered sells slightly below resistance targets.
This is not financial advice and my fictional future telling glass ball happens to hick up sometimes: you should never invest solely upon reading my or another persons TA and always do your own research: explore news, social media, white papers, tech info and so on.
Be extra cautious during these times of Bitcoin volatility, the market is twitchy and trends are easily broken at the moment so be sure to monitor your trades and set alerts and stop loss orders in place.
If you enjoy my analysis make sure to follow me at TradingView and other social media (click that nice little blue bird at my profile page).
A like to increase the exposure on my charts is very much appreciated!
Happy Trading! ~ Crypto JC
P.S. have a look at my 1 year logarithmic vs linear scale analysis for some fresh perspective on Bitcoin:
Comment
⋅
For those of you who are trading Bitcoin short term, I have uploaded a 30 minute candles zoomed in live chart here:
Comment
⋅
Wow, Bitcoin bounced up exactly at the channel bottom of my logarithmic chart I posted two days ago. Here is a zoomed in screen shot from the same log chart right now (without moving any of the lines from my original post):
Comment
⋅
Let me add though, that this doesn't automatically means Bitcoin is full on bullish again (which it obviously isn't right now) and we still need to see if it can get enough traction to break upwards.
Comment
⋅
I've posted a new Bitcoin USD analysis, click the chart below to read it:
I like your two long term charts you posted at the bottom... Would be disappointing to see us break down. But it's looking more and more likely. I would watch to see if April will give bitcoin a boost as people get their taxes done.
CryptoJC
⋅
@MidasTouchTrading, thanks. Yeah that would be disappointing indeed, but I give it a chance the price will bounce up from 7800 which would keep it within the yellow channel from the logarithmic scale chart at the bottom. It could break down lower to 7200/7300 and opt for a bounce from there, that could just become a wick poking out, so the war wouldn't be lost if it did.
CryptoJC
⋅
For those of you watching LiteCoin, I've posted a new chart/analysis after the news broke that LitePay is ceasing all operations, continue reading by clicking the chart: